http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140513/12/123/h850t850eu.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140513/18/117/h850t850eu.png

Mysteriously, the 18z acts like the 06z in offering a more amplified setup with the block to our NE reaching closer and the trough dropping further west.

The shifts in the jet pattern are notable even at just 72 hours range, the trough developing faster and digging further south.

 

In this version of events, Sunday rivals Saturday for temperatures and weather across all but the NW of Scotland.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140513/18/141/h850t850eu.png

Even Monday turns out decent for much of England... this arising form a shift in LP position westward by about 150 miles... nothing in the grand scheme of things.

Notice also the much stronger block to the NE thanks to LP riding up it's western flank rather than heading NE.

What I would give for the models to shift to this evolution tomorrow morning... but it's anybody's game really.

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I really do hope it does mr stormchaser .its time for summer now. My bald head needs some rays.and I'm sending £100 virtual pounds to Gibby to totally lie on his morning update 😉

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY WEDNESDAY 14TH MAY 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An anticyclone will build across Southern Britain through today and tomorrow while a warm front is expected to cross NE across NW Britain later today and tonight.

GFS The GFS Ensembles indicate an area of low pressure slips South across western Britain to lie to the SW of the UK for several days with outbreaks of rain for many but principally across more Southern and Western Britain. As days pass details become difficult to pin down but with the lack of any significant High pressure shown and quite slack conditions overall further showers or outbreaks of rain can be expected at times but with some dry and brighter weather too in places, especially towards the East.

UKMO UKMO shows the start of next week with Low pressure re-established across the UK with showers or longer spells of showery rain again with winds generally becoming a gentle Southerly or SE'ly and temperatures returning to nearer to average due to the increase of cloud cover.

GEM The GEM operational today shows Low pressure settling down towards the South of the UK through next week with unsettled weather for many delivering rain and showers for all, perhaps more especially towards Southern Britain. Temperatures would return close to average with a chilly wind off the North Sea for a time across more NE areas.

NAVGEM NAVGEM develops Low pressure further to the SW next week keeping the most unsettled and sometimes wet weather more towards the South and West while Northern and Eastern Britain stay drier and brighter in the NW but with a cool and cloudy North Sea breeze over Eastern Scotland and NE England.

ECM today shows Low pressure spiraling around to the SW of Britain through next week sending troughs North and East over Southern and Western Britain in particular with rain and showers in these areas as a result. Though also likely to see some rain at times Northern and Eastern parts may see the best chance of seeing longer drier periods but a chilly North Sea breeze will affect North Sea coasts at times.

MY THOUGHTS  Today's output continue to model Low pressure becoming influential over the UK for the period commencing from later this Sunday. With the majority of output suggesting Low pressure becoming slow moving close to SW Britain will probably mean the heaviest and most persistent spells of rain and showers will affect more Southern and Western Britain. Northern and Eastern parts look like they could miss at least some of the rainfall with the chance of something drier and warmer at times though with a flow from the East or SE here North Sea coasts could become plagued by dull and chilly North Sea haar conditions with the NW of Scotland being probably the warmest area at times. Longer term this morning Low pressure looks to hold control in one form or another near the UK with a continuation of outbreaks of rain and showers scattered about across the UK with little sign of anything reliably like high Summer shown as yet.

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Cheers GIBBY.

The runs have a somewhat convective look about them with warm, muggy air never far away from the east at times meaning thundery outbreaks would seem likely given the unstable air mass across us.

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Had a look at the Apps on windows 8.1 with  Precipitation forecast for Monday onwards. Warmth could well be rather humid.

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Well would you believe it, our wish seems to have come true this morning, with GFS if anything taking the 18z trend a little bit further, ECM shifted a long way in that direction, UKMO also shifted but not quite so much.

That last model seems to be the only one not dropping a much weaker trough to our west... hopefully it's just a step behind on the trend, though even its solution does see the warm continental air across the SE.

 

It does appear that GEM may have been right about the dropping trough all along. If that turns out to be the case, then that'll be quite a victory for the model.

It all comes about from the Atlantic trough 'maturing' a little faster than previously predicted, which creates more of a buckle south in the jet by +72 hours and also means more dissipation of the trough before it starts to drop south. With the jet buckling faster and sooner, it forms a sharper trough by Sunday, reaching all the way down to Spain, at which point it interacts with unstable air to form a low pressure system either over said country (GFS 00z) or to our SW (ECM 00z).

 

It's been such a rollercoaster in the models lately that I'm not prepared to take this much warmer version of events as the likely way forward just yet... the shift in the GEFS is quite something though:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

...from agreement on a below average run for a number of days, to agreement on well above average for more than a week! 

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I think most of us here (away from the east coast) would happily accept the odd thundery shower if the airflow is warm and slack.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

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Real risk of some thunderstorms over the next few weeks if the GFS and ECM is anything to go by. Warm, unstable air from the continent potentially triggering storms in the SE. 

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One thing of note is the 15+ uppers right up into Finland, surely for May that is a bit unusual? Looks like a very warm SE feed from India/Pakistan.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_150_mslp850.png?cb=143

Moscow looking very warm/hot, could be over TEN days with temps above 25C, some of those days may well hit 30C

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Moskau_ens.png

 

 

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From memory, I think Finland had a signficant heatwave this time last year while the UK struggled to stay dry and warm up.

Or it might have been two years ago.

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Looks like that was 5th June last year when parts of the UK was still relatively cool, Helsinki got up to 29C on that day, can't find anything close to that going back a few years in May though. I think it might have been somewhere in Lapland that recorded some very unusual temps last May but I cannot be sure, I'm sure someone on here mentioned Lapland at some point though regarding warm temps.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Increasingly unsettled but could very warm in the east with a thunder risk no doubt from the Met/o 12z.

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So far the 12z runs have seen UKMO shift the LP to the SW a bit so that it matches well with GFS, while GEM has continued to drop the trough further SW than the other models.

ECM could be an interesting one...

 

Next week certainly looks like being rather sultry overall, temperatures across much of England and Wales a bit above average by day (1-5*C depending on which run you look at) but more notably so by night, when we may see minimums of 12-14*C widely away from the far west.

Overall it should tend to feel on the warm side, this perhaps most notable late morning when the sun has gathered strength but convective systems and associated winds haven't got going too much, and again during the first half of the night, when it might feel rather close.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

A warm and paternally thundery ECM 12z so far.

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Certainly quite a noticeable nudge upwards on the temperature front over the last 24 hours of runs. Still unsettled after the weekend but warm and showery rather than cool and showery as the GFS was persistantly showing at one stage.

Can't remember a warm/hot thundery spell in May for quite a few years imby - will be interesting if nothing else.

 

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Can see the bedroom nighttime temp thread being resurrected next week, I'm working in the SE next week so hope the hotels have air-con!

Now that we have the track of energy going up the Scandi High's western flank and allowing it to have more influence over the UK, causing the trough to drop more to our SW while also pushing a lot of warm air through the continent, the question turns to just how far SW the trough ends up by Monday.

GFS, ECM and UKMO are all remarkably similar in terms of positioning on that day. Meanwhile GEM is yet again further SW with the feature. Given recent trends and how GEM has been ahead of the curve with this so far, further shifts SW appear to be possible. Looking at the ensembles, the ECMWF suite has shifted notably SW over the past 24 hours, most clear on the mean for next Tuesday, and the same is true for the GEFS mean:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014051412/EDM1-144.GIF?14-0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-144.png?12

 

Given that the spread was relatively low prior to this shifts, it goes to show how whole suites can fall short in some situations.

 

As for where the trough then travels, the means for both models then appear to drift the trough up right across the UK, but the spreads reveal a huge range of options through the scattering of uncertain regions all around the UK:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-22-1-180.png?12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014051412/EEM1-192.GIF?14-0

More of a cut-off trough scenario, seen on the ECM and GEM runs tonight, with just little bits of energy escaping N/NE rather than the entire system, is in the mix, along with the ones where the entire trough makes a move, as the GFS 12z op run shows.

 

Best just watch/hope for the trough getting as far SW of the UK as possible on Monday, if you want to avoid seeing a lot of major downpours (can't say I'd mind a few big bangs, though... provided the warm continental air stuck around too).

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http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140514/18/168/h850t850eu.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140514/18/168/hgt300.png

More of a cut-off low on the 18z GFS op run... a precursor to tomorrow's modelling events just as the last 18z was for today?

Who knows, but unlike 24 hours ago, what the 18z shows is something that not was explored on the preceding 12z run by not only GEM but ECM as well.

So the potential is definately there for the trough to remain to the S/SW rather than head NE, even if GFS doesn't manage to model that on the 18z run beyond the above timeframe.

Very interesting times indeed 

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What a mess! Who would want to predict the BH weekend weather this morning! It could be anything from cool and wet to hot and sunny as slow moving systems jostle for position while high pressure cells coming off the Russian high could pop up at any time.

The models are really going to struggle with this set up and anything beyond 4 days is pure FI

IMO the only certain thing is that it will be warm over the next week particularly in the south east and with time the emphasis for any wet weather will shift to the south west. In addition much of Europe is going to heat up quickly even in the eastern Med which has had a very cool spring so far.

Other than that I haven't got a bloody clue and to be honest neither has the MetO, not that I blame them as the situation is so finely balanced.

Andy

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