May continued the trend of above average months but had the smallest positive anomaly so far this year. Can the trend continue for the whole of the first half of the year? I rather think it will.  

Please post your June CET predictions in this thread. The deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Saturday evening (31st). However, entries will be accepted up to 23:59 on 2 June.

June historic data summary

Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.

The last three June's have all had a CET a little under 14C. But you have to go back to 1991 to find a really cold June with 12.1C. The warmest June in recent times was 16.1C in 2003.

Long run averages:
1971-2000: 14.1C
1981-2010: 14.5C
1989-2013: 14.5C

Here is a chart of the June CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average

Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.

GEFS (850 and 2m temps)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
An average start but perhaps turning gradually warmer in week 2 

ECM(De Bilt) maximum and minimum temps
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=12&type=tx
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=12&type=tn
Gradually warming up a little with a few runs going for quite warm weather as we go into the second week of June. But lots of scatter at that point.

Met office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/city-of-london-greater-london#?tab=regionalForecast&map=SignificantWeather&zoom=8&lon=-0.18&lat=51.51&fcTime=1401278400
Contingency Planners forecast not yet available
30 day forecast says temperatures should generally be around average but a little cooler in the unsettled spells and a little warmer in the brighter interludes. So not giving much away there then!

Pattern matching (just for fun)

If we look at years with a Spring CET of 9.7C or more and an Apr-May CET combination of 10.9C or more we find 10 matching years since 1893. Of these 8 had a June CET higher than average and 6 of these years were more than 0.5C above average. The only exceptions were 1999 and 2011 which were both very slightly below average.

So while the pattern matching may suggest a good chance of a rather poor summer overall, there is in fact a fairly good chance of seeing a reasonably warm June. It is July and August we need to worry more about I think.

14.3 please.

11.3 the worst ever June . and thats no joke either , finally this cesspit climate has done my head in

15.0 please.

15.3c. Please..

14.1c for me thanks.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gary

I think nights will be mild even if days aren't always that hot .....  And that'll keep it above average.  Again.

So 14.8c

15.8c so warmer than average and wetter than average.

Agreeing with that...

This is a really hard one to call - We're in a bad rut atm which to all intents and purposes we should get out of - but its a case of when.

This has big ramifications for the CET.

I'll wait a day or so.

14.8c for me please.

I'll try for an above average 15c please.

14.74 please.

14.25C please, very average

15.2c please

14.3C for me please

14.8C for me please.

A really tough call this month. Signs from May that temperatures maybe dropping back towards average and by July/August maybe below average, slipping back all the way into a cold winter