14.7C

14.95C

15.2C please

Oooooopppppssss, a but late, sorry.

Can we say 15.4 please.

Here are the list of June CET predictions so far. There is still time to enter.

^^^

Interesting collection of estimates there

36% of June CET's have come in under 14C but this table only has 4%

The power of "sticking with the trend"

Just out of intrest as far to early to be of note.----

Metcheck          12.5c.      Anomaly       -2.00c.

N-W                   12.84c.    Anomaly        1.54c.

Mount Sorrel      10.98c.   Anomaly        -3.12c.

Unusually, the majority of upstream analogues are in a very narrow band - 13.9 and 14.4 appear frequently - no warm Junes featured at all.

Being as there are hints that the Atlantic might stall to the west with weather from the south and east  coming into play, I've chosen to run the trend card but I'm not that confident - the recent appearance of June '91 in the table is not inpiring.

Sorry I'm a bit late with this, but I would like to guesstimate 16.0C. After a cool, damp start, I think from the second week of June onwards we will see a significant warm up with a nice June.

Met Office Hadley        14.3c.       Anomaly      1.5c.    Provisional  to 1st.

Metcheck                       14.24c.      Anomaly       0.09c.

N-W                              15.29c.      Anomaly       1.02c.

Mount Sorrel                  14.52c.      Anomaly       0.42c.

My Mean                        16.9c.       Anomaly        2.1c.

Met Office Hadley          14.9c.      Anomaly      2.0c.    Provisional to 2nd.   Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                      14.59c.    Anomaly      0.44c.

N-W                             15.36c.    Anomaly      1.27c.

Mount Sorrel                 15.30c.   Anomaly       1.20c.

My  Mean                      16.3c      Anomaly       1.5c.      

Met Office Hadley           14.9c.        Anomaly        1.7c.     provisional to  3rd.

Metcheck                       14.11c.      Anomaly       -0.04c.

N-W                              15.07c.      Anomaly         0.98c.

Mount Sorrel                  14.78c.      Anomaly         0.68c.

My Mean                        15.9c.        Anomaly         1.1c

I think I'm going to be very wrong this month 

I reckon a >15c'er

Yes, definite hints of a low to our SW in the charts for June at the end of last month - though I've been burnt before by going for big anomalies and thought of that... But, I guess the beauty of this comp is that, while that scenario, and flabby high pressure aslo now showing in model output, seem best for summer warmth, beyond +144 it is really still an open question. And I must say it's been surprisingly cold this afternoon.

And jolly nippy up here this morning.

My line of thought was that northerly blocking would feature for much of the month. Not all the time and not bringing us especially cold weather, but keeping temps suppressed. I went for a little bit above average, but think I'll be 1c out.

Single figure minimums last night for many.

Probably the last cold night for a very long time.

June is a very hard month to call. If we get over 16C then it will be the warmest June since 2003 (16.1) That was the warmest June since the classic one of 1976 - that had a CET of 17.0C

Apart from 1976 - most good summers have had relatively indifferent or even poor Junes with the decent weather confined to July and August.

Its quite rare to get all 3 summer months being good or very good - Perhaps this year might deliver that. It would be excellent if that did happen.

What happened with 2006? I know from looking at the stats that it wasn't as warm as 2003, but 2006 really sticks in my mind for having an amazingly hot spell - was it relatively brief, with cooler temps before or after? I have no recollection of June 2003 being hot, but then the following August will have eclipsed that (and I DO remember that spell!!)

Anyway, I'd like to see some good summer weather tally with the kids' holidays, which hasn't happened for a long time. Last year we had a cracking spell in the first half of July, only for it to turn far less settled by the time the kids broke up from school.

Tonight is meant to be chilly with 6c forecast for this region (colder in the countryside).