HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY MONDAY JUNE 2ND 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A weak trough of Low pressure will cross East over the UK today followed by another one late tonight and tomorrow as pressure continues to slowly fall across the UK.

GFS The GFS Ensembles today have reversed their trends shown yesterday morning when more settled and warm weather looked likely later next week. Instead today they show that any better conditions from warm Southerly winds and High pressure to the East will be reserved towards early next week while later sees Low pressure re-establishing itself over the UK with attendant rain and showers and cooler Atlantic winds returning for all by the end of the run. All of this following a changeable and sometimes showery spell through this week as Low pressure sits close by to the West.

UKMO UKMO closes it's run this morning with Low pressure sat to the West of Ireland next Sunday with an unstable SSW flow across Britain. The weather looks like being warm and humid then, especially across the East and SE with the shower risk most pronounced across Western Britain but with nowhere immune.

GEM The GEM operational today shows slack low pressure maintained near to or over the UK throughout it's run today with the risk of showers and outbreaks of rain possible on all days almost anywhere but differeing in where and when day to day. With a bias towards Southerly breezes at times it will feel warm and humid on occasion, especially towards the East especially next weekend.

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows Low pressure maintained uncomfortably close to the West of the UK with outbreaks of rain and showers a risk for somewhere or another on most days though as alway some places may fair quite well. As with the other models Southerly winds allow some very air to waft North over other parts of Europe and some of this may graze Easternmost parts at times.

ECM The ECM operational today has removed last night's runs heatfest and brought itself down to Earth this morning with the more changeable theme shown in other runs and it's ensembles last night. This means Low pressure through this week gradually being pulled towards the NW and allowing some improvements to develop over the South and SE by the middle of next week where it could become dry and quite warm. The North and West though remain at risk of further rain at times on this run as Low pressure ends the run covering the North Atlantic above 50 degN.

MY THOUGHTS  The models continue to jostle about with rather complex synoptics across the Northern hemisphere. With no particular dominant weather  feature likely across the UK over the next two weeks it is left for the influence of weaker ridges and troughs to determine the weather experienced across the UK over this period meaning there will be spells of rain and showers mixed with some pleasantly warm and dry days. All models show various scenarios which would all lead to the above mix. The ECM' very warm operational of last night has been removed this morning although it looked unlikely anyway as had little support from it's ensemble mean data. So in a nutshell it looks like the weather will remain changeable day to day with a gradual trend still shown later that the South and East show a greater chance of becoming largely drier and warmer later in the period as something of High pressure gets close to the South on many runs later next week though it should be emphasised that without universal support this is by no means a done deal.

Thank you  Martin...   Roll on the weekend with rising temperatures. Still some showers though...

From what I can see, ECM has continued the theme and is not far off last night's operational run.

GFS has shifted towards ECM, or at least the 00z did, modelling a discrete cell to the NE developing in conjunction with the Atlantic trough to bring some heat close to our shores. Close... but no cigar for all but the far SE and East Anglia.

ECM is just a little further west so could bring more central parts of the UK in on the act for a time, particularly Monday/Tuesday as a hot SE'rly feed briefly establishes before a thundery low clears the air.

Still consistent signs for the Atlantic trough to lift N a bit as it decays, allowing the Azores to extend a ridge towards the HP to the E/NE and initiating what could be a lengthy and perhaps considerably warm settled spell - but we have a lot to get through before then, with many complications as Martin aluded to in his summary, so we can't take a settled middle-third of June as a given just yet.

There are some exciting synoptics on offer from this coming weekend for 2-3 days. Any further adjustments west in the Atlantic trough will be met with a wide grin from me 

Hi all,

Here's the June month ahead forecast;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/june14.php 

Quite an interesting/complicated month, with above average temperatures and above average rainfall - Could be thunderstorms/thundery rain in the south at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif

That's a hot and increasingly unstable Saturday on offer from ECM. On this run, it takes until day 8 for energy to start pushing NE, flattening the pattern.

A look through the other models reveals a broad agreement on energy starting to push NE, but with disagreement regarding how soon this starts to occur. They are all at least a little bit more progressive than ECM with this.

Unusually, UKMO is the most progressive, with the high pressure to the NE very much lacking from as early as day 4.

GFS is between UKMO and ECM to day 5, then really starts piling energy NE, but the ridge then holds on across Europe while keeping a good grip on the UK, resulting in a decent run of weather.

GEM is close to ECM out to day 6, but can't resist taking energy NE thereafter, similar to GFS in that sense - but it isn't so clean, with a weak trough managing to track through the UK on days 8-9 followed by a new ridge from the SW on day 10.

ECM's renewed buckling of the Atlantic jet for day 10, building a decent ridge up through the UK, has caught my eye tonight. After all, the models aren't signalling for more than a fairly relaxed looking Atlantic in the 7-10 day range, implying a relatively weak jet that would not be likely to maintain a flat pattern for long.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY TUESDAY JUNE 3RD 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Pressure continues to fall slowly as a slack and unstable WSW flow is replaced by a developing Low pressure moving up over Britain from the South later tonight and tomorrow.

GFS The GFS Ensembles today show that Low pressure areas, though slack remain reluctant to give way to any marked improvements in weather over the next few weeks. Both the operational and the ensemble pack paint a story of slack and showery Low pressure areas remining close to or over the UK for the entire run. This doesn't mean wall to wall rain or indeed sunshine but the trend remains for some rain at times for most in between spells of sunshine with some bouts of warm and quite humid air in light winds at times.

UKMO UKMO closes it's run today with a warm and muggy SW flow across the UK next Monday between shallow Low pressure areas to the NW while High pressure lies close to the SE. Northern and Western parts will be at greatest risk of rain or showers while the South and East could feel very warm and quite humid at times with some pleasant sunshine in the greatest chance of staying largely dry.

GEM The GEM operational today shows a continuation of the largely showery theme as shallow Low pressure drifts North to the West of the UK to lie close to the NW for most of the rest of the run. Showers for many as a result will become somewhat more restricted to Northern and Western areas next week and it looks like the East and South could become very warm and humid for a time at the weekend.

NAVGEM NAVGEM continues to show Low pressure just to the West of the UK early next week maintaining the risk of outbreaks of thundery rain or showers moving North over the UK. It looks like it would be warm and humid especially in the East where the longest drier periods would be likely.

ECM The ECM operational today shows that it's almost Day 10 when showery Low pressure loses it's grip for a time over the UK as pressure builds from the South. Instead we have a slow progression of Low pressure moving from the SW to be up to the NW and then NE later next week. Throughout this period all parts will see some showers at times, heavy and thundery in a warm and very humid period this coming weekend. through next week as the passage of the Low moves over towards the NE cooler Atlantic winds will be pulled down across the UK with the best of the weather at the end of the run in the SW.

MY THOUGHTS  The models continue to make a dogs dinner of the continuing complex pressure patterns around the Northern hemisphere at the moment. Within this complexity is the basic theme of Low pressure down to the SW later this week and the weekend delivering a period of very warm and humid air sucked up across Britain enhancing the thundery nature of any rain. Thereafter the trend is that Low pressure will move up towards the North of the UK with a fresher and cooler Atlantic breeze delivering a more traditional UK sunshine and shower mix as we move through next week with a weak trend still shown of possible improvements from the South late in the period. It should be noted though that no spread or common ground towards this outcome is shown again this morning within the longer term model output so it may be we have to be patient in seeing our first lengthy UK wide warm and sunny spell this summer.

Plenty of warm/humid and convective opportunities into the coming weekend and possibly into next week to.

We're strike Lucky just a matter of time.

Yellow warning out  for Saturday.....Thundery Downpours   England - Wales- and Southern Scotland.....

There's now strong agreement across the models for the UK to experience a run of 'peripheral continental' conditions (yes - I just made that term up).

Some notable continental heat for so early in the summer looks to deliver a glancing blow Friday/Saturday, with the chance of some mid-20's temperatures across the SE in particular on Saturday, after low 20's quite widely on Friday. Locally, temperatures could climb a bit higher than that in the far SE.

Being at the boundary and with a strong trough to the west, the UK is at risk of some considerable, perhaps severe rainfall events. On this, there is little run-to-run or cross-model consistency or agreement to be found - for the next few days it looks best to just keep an eye on that without taking any individual prediction too seriously.

The hot continental air may remain close to the UK for a good part of next week, depending on how the weak ridges of high pressure to the east behave in combination with possible 'heat lows' i.e. slack areas of low pressure developing within the hot continental airmass.

Currently, a rough combination of model solutions suggests that low 20's are favoured across England in particular, while the NW may feel the effects of the Atlantic trough complex hanging about rather close to us, resulting in relatively cool and fresh conditions.

The evening runs have brought a strong suggestion that the Atlantic trough complex will retrogress even further west towards the end of next week, perhaps encouraging the more pronounced ridge from the SW that the models originally toyed with for the middle part of next week.

As I've seen many times before over the past 6 years, the models appear to have initially shifted the pattern too quickly, correcting towards a slower shift, involving more steps, as the time has drawn nearer.

That's a nice informative description there James.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY WEDNESDAY JUNE 4TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Low pressure moves North across England today with troughs encircling the system with rain at times for all areas. A NW flow follows the Low across SW areas later.

GFS The GFS Ensembles today show that Low pressure remain largely in control of the UK weather over the coming two weeks. They will largely be slack affairs drifting slowly North to the West of the UK innitially before reinvigorating themselves to the NE of the UK. In turn warm and humid weather at first would likely be replaced by cooler weather as winds swing more towards a Northerly quarter for a time with showers or outbreaks of rain, heavy at times possible on most days though any one place may well see plenty of dry weather too. A more sustained improvement is hinted at late in the run as pressure builds strongly across the UK.

UKMO UKMO closes it's run today with a warm and muggy airflow being sucked up across England and Wales between Low pressure to the SW and higher pressure close to the East. Some very warm and muggy weather is expected next week with some thundery showers drifting North over Britain at times in the airflow.

GEM The GEM operational today shows Low pressure drifting slowly North to the west of the UK next week with High pressure building steadily from the South behind it. This means a showery and humid start to the week would give way to a sunny and warm spell for many areas late next week and the weekend.

NAVGEM NAVGEM eases Low pressure slowly away more to the NW as we move through next week though it will be a slow process with showers possible well into next week even in the South before drier and brighter conditions develop from the South by midweek or soon after.

ECM The ECM operational today looks quite a sultry run with a lot of very warm air being sucked up across the UK on light winds from Southern Europe. Low pressure aloft just to the West and SW at first and South later could interact with this air at times and the chance of heavy and thundery rain at times drifting North in the flow is a very real one though no doubt some will see a dry and very warm week while others get soaked.

MY THOUGHTS  Today's output is very mixed but in general I feel that despite hardly ideal synoptics the weather on the whole in any one place may end up being not that bad. In essence the weather will be determined on the behaviour of Low pressure to the SW of Britain at first and how that lifts North later as well as how if any build of pressure is allowed to follow that Low from the South later. With winds maintaining a Southerly aspect next week looks warm and humid for many especially the East and while some output cuts off this humid feed later if pressure is allowed to build strongly from the South later as indicated by some output then the weather could turn quite Summery from the South later. So in a nutshell some dry,bright and warm weather at times with occasional thundery rain looks the most likely trend of events nationwide.

Oh joy. Sleepless nights and sweat

But at least lots of girls sunbathing in the park