dp of 8c here that will do for me 

The met O 15 dayer performed a volte face breaking away from its "largely unsettled with brighter interludes" forecast under the increasing weight of model and ensemble evidence which has been building for a while now, that there is set to be a settled fine and warm period of weather away from the north and west of Britain. Good.

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Looking pleasant across England and particular out to the latter stages of next week now, with temperatures ranging from the low to the mid 20's, a slight upgrade from the 00z runs, with Monday in particular starting to look more like a day in high summer featuring another thundery episode on top of the Fri-Sat affair 

 

Then, we can see the idea of a Scandi trough gaining more support tonight, which leaves the models with a bit of a conundrum:

 

Mid-Alantic trough + UK/Euro Ridge = warm signal

Scandi trough + Greenland Ridge = cool signal

 

Interestingly enough, the models are increasingly favouring the ridge from the Azores having the upper hand.

This occurs as a result of troughs developing in the mid Atlantic, amplifying the trough-ridge combination. This is the main difference to what we endured in 2012; that year, the troughs tended to develop close to the UK rather than out to our west.

It may just be pot luck as to where the region of favoured development ends up... but then again, models like CFS hinted at the mid-Atlantic trough from as much as 3 months ago. To me, that suggests a driving force behind the trough location, which I believe may at least in part be the SST pattern, as I've discussed previously in other threads.

This summer is an interesting case study for me in that regard - how it evolves will give some guidance as to how strongly the Atlantic SST pattern can determine the summer patterns across the Atlantic and NW Europe.

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Have you read any of Huug Van Den Dool's research on LR forecasting via lagged SSTs?

This is the forecast for JJA 500 anomalies - issued six months ago, it is not so far off what we are currently seeing.

http://i.imgur.com/v0tSeVY.gif

Main page.  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/

 

Unsurprisingly somewhere around London is probably going to be the hotspot on Saturday, around 27C

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014060512/nmmuk-0-49-0.png?05-19

 

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Thanks, I'll try and dig up some of the papers, I'm sure they're on webofscience somewhere 

The favourism for mid-Atlantic trough development seems to be the most prominent response, this in turn supporting a ridge to the north of it i.e. across Greenland. It's quite amazing how close to the predicted JJA setup the current model outlook is for the coming week or so.

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Good morning. Here is my assessment of the latest outputs of the main computer models outputs for today Friday June 6th 2014.

The General Situation. Low pressure lies to the SW of the UK with an increasingly warm and humid SE flow developing over all areas through the day. A cold front will move NE into this warm air across SW Britain later tonight and tomorrow.

GFS this morning offers a changeable regime over the next few weeks, bothe form it's operational and ensembles. The first week will largely be warm and quite dry for many as Low pressure to the SW of the UK moves North and fills slowly with warm and humid High pressure never far away from the SE. Later in the run the pressure pattern is trended to shift towards Low pressure over or to the NE of the UK with a much cooler and fresher Northerly aspect to the wind carrying some showers or rain at times for many later, especially in the North.

UKMO today shows Low pressure moving very slowly North just to the west of the UK next week. The warm and humid weather in Southern and Eastern Britain with some thundery rain looks likely to be edged away through the week in preference to a lot of dry and bright weather and temperatures still respectable. Northern and Western regions will then be at risk of further showers in the gentle SW winds as the belt of shallow Low pressure lies between Scandinavia to the mid Atlantic.

GEM today shows it's operational as very similar to the UKMO model with High pressure ridging NE across Southern Britain next week with a lot of dry and bright weather as a result while slack Low pressure to the North and NW keep the risk of some rain and showers going for these areas through the week in temperatures falling off a little and becoming less humid with time.

NAVGEM shows a slower route to higher pressure from the South leaving it to almost next weekend when pressure has risen sufficiently enough to eliminate a rain risk from Southern Britain at least as slack Low pressure finally releases it's grip to the North and West. Temperatures look like staying well up to average and it could become rather warmer again towards the South later next week.

ECM this morning shows a painfully slow process too in bringing the effects of High pressure to the South and SW to make a lasting and far reaching inpact on the UK weather next week. The South will end up with a largely dry week with just the chance of isolated showers and humidity levels should fall as winds turn more Westerly. Northern and Western areas will remain at threat of some showery rain at times as shallow Low pressure continues to meander around close to Northern coasts.

MY THOUGHTS. In Summary improvements remain in place through the models this morning but with limited effect for more Northern areas in particular. High pressure is today generally shown to be thwarted in it's attempts to move right up across the UK from the SW instead a ridge towards Southern Britain is more likely with these areas seeing the benefits as such with sunshine at times and spare the occasional shower a lot of dry and bright weather and less humid as we move through the week. Northern and some Western areas will see the greatest risk of rain on an Atlantic flow which longer term looks like it could extend back to Southern areas too in week 2 if the longer term models are to be believed.

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Thank You Martin...    Going for the better parts of NAVGEM  and ECM........

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Sounds like its struggling to settle down properly.

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ECM and GEM continue to propose mid-Atlantic and Scandi troughs, with the UK for the most located under relatively weak ridges in between, this being most dominant across the south while the north (possibly Midlands too) experiences the influence of low pressure systems tracking west to east between the two trough complexes.

They suggest enough mobility to prevent a trough becoming slow moving across the UK, and in fact the Scandi trough also drifts eastward to become more of a Russian trough by days 9-10, which is a good sign.

 

GFS, though, is being a right spanner in the works, going with the idea of a cut-off low developing in the western Atlantic, which then supports a blocking high across Greenland and shuts down the Atlantic westerlies. This allows the Scandi trough to gain the upper hand for a time, though only the western flank actually reaches us - it turns unseasonably cool with some showers and rain at times too.

The Atlantic mobility does return late in the run, and we begin to see the ridge from the Azores pushing back towards the UK and Europe, but that's after a fairly rotten run of days for the eastern half of the UK in particular.

 

It won't surprise you, then, that I'm hoping GFS is barking up the wrong tree with that cut-off low in the W. Atlantic!

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Looks pretty toasty for the SE corner. Hopefully the thundery stuff will push off during the morning and gives us some decent sunshine. It will certainly feel pretty steamy if the sun does break through for any length of time. 

 

Even before the end of May we'd already clocked up more alfresco dining than we managed in the whole of 2012. Long may that continue...

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Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

D-Day, JMA Friday + Saturday Thunderstorms

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Longer range JMA is looking quite good for June, IMO.

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That wasn't hard to beat.  2012 was a complete and total atrocity. I've never known anything like it - Kevin Bradshaw's Manchester Summer index placed 2012 as the worst summer since 1956.

 

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The 12z runs have some notable differences in the extent to which high pressure builds through the UK, and also how much energy heads to Scandinavia days 5-6.

ECM, UKMO, GFS and JMA all bring enough of a ridge days 3-6 to keep things largely settled in the SE but with more changeable conditions for the NW. Further detail is trivial at this stage, but it could be on the warm side in the SE with a bit of luck.

GEM and NAVGEM both make less of the ridge, the former particularly so, with more unsettled conditions dominating for most areas - still barking up the wrong tree I hope!

 

GFS has a reduced and slower transfer of energy to Scandinavia compared with this morning, falling more in line with ECM. A mid-Atlantic ridge still features from day 8 or 9 though, as it does in the ECM run.

ECM has found the dreaded sliding low tonight for day 10... but thankfully, a weak ridge and well mixed out trough means that it doesn't pack much of a punch.

UKMO still has a much bigger transfer of energy to Scandinavia. JMA follows that idea too, and develops a broad trough there by day 8, threatening to bring a markedly cool run of days, though not too unsettled.

There's not enough to work with for a decision on what's most likely to unfold, but at the very least a drop in temperatures looks likely for a time, with solutions ranging from near average to several degrees below.

 

Longer term, low pressure is signalled to be pushing into Greenland and sending the mid-Atlantic ridge toppling east. With a rather unstable looking setup over the W. Med. it seems we could end up with the ridge sitting above a trough across Central/Western Europe - but early days on that one!

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The only other summer I can recall that was anything like as persistently rotten for weather as 2012 in my area was 1998. The difference that year was that IIRC it was more northern & western areas that copped the wettest weather although it wasn't a great summer anywhere in the UK from what I remember. The really wet weather in 2012 seemed to be much more widespread, and caused flooding in some areas that not long before had been crying out for some rain!

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