I get pretty hyped up when it kicks off. We were really lucky yesterday and there was plenty of lightning and hail 

Prepare the "earmuffs!" Hi decibel early warning for Saturday

The infamous "anvil blow-off" (copyright Bren).

My attention is more focused on Friday night tbh. Dependant on the steering winds we can only hope that the potential outbreak in France later tomorrow will be drawn our way

Away from the upcoming events, he's a brief video clip from yesterday evening. The wife and I had driven just south of Alton as he heavy showers started to get a good vantage point. Thunder started soon after and we eventually drove the short distance back to Alton around 7pm with me driving and Cheryl videoing on her Galaxy S4

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3tzMZU8eNM 

Originally Posted by: Osprey 

LOL I love the excitement in your voice

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

I get pretty hyped up when it kicks off. We were really lucky yesterday and there was plenty of lightning and hail 

Originally Posted by: Jonesy 

Prepare the "earmuffs!" Hi decibel early warning for Saturday

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

Aye, all the howls of anguish when 99% of us miss out yet again ....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.gif

Thundery trouble ahead.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/06/05/basis12/ukuk/prec/14060706_0512.gif

Okay. Euro-4 has nothing at all Friday night, and this is as intense as it gets on Saturday up to noon.

Some action then arriving from the south for the afternoon by the looks of things... but that's at odds with the notion of homegrown development that forecasters in general seem to be suggesting.

Looking at the cloud fields, broken cloud is modelled for the morning, but with almost total cloud cover by noon.

For all I know though, Euro-4 could be hopeless with this sort of setup 

You could be right - this is probably the first such set-up since Euro-4 was launched.

Away from the upcoming events, he's a brief video clip from yesterday evening. The wife and I had driven just south of Alton as he heavy showers started to get a good vantage point. Thunder started soon after and we eventually drove the short distance back to Alton around 7pm with me driving and Cheryl videoing on her Galaxy S4

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3tzMZU8eNM 

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

LOL I love the excitement in your voice

Originally Posted by: Essan 

I get pretty hyped up when it kicks off. We were really lucky yesterday and there was plenty of lightning and hail 

Originally Posted by: Osprey 

Prepare the "earmuffs!" Hi decibel early warning for Saturday

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

Aye, all the howls of anguish when 99% of us miss out yet again ....

Originally Posted by: Jonesy 

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

Yeah!  aint it the way

ppppffffttttttttt standard summer stuff in Sydney

Does look like we, here at Kent, could miss out on the thundery weather tomorrow going by some of the outputs, all bypassing to our west, instead just merely staying muggy, overcast and damp with some bright spells in the afternoon at this end.

I don't envy the pros when it comes to this kind of forecasting. Another one of those occasions where it boils down to radar watching come the moment. 

Yep it's a tricky one. From the best guess at theta-e and forcing I'd go for some storms to move in around midnight across C S England. Then more general thundery downpours develop from the SW early hours, moving NNE on the plume.
Saturday sees some home-grown convection behind the main area but in my location it should all be over by mid-afternoon which is fine as my barbeque is in use Sat eve.

What it won't be is a devastating calamity of tornados and killer hail.
But we all knew that, didn't we?

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/06/06/basis00/ukuk/prty/14060700_0600.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/06/06/basis00/ukuk/prty/14060706_0600.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/06/06/basis00/ukuk/prty/14060712_0600.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/06/06/basis00/ukuk/prty/14060718_0600.gif

EURO4 brings up plenty of heavy stuff.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014060600/nmm-6-33-0.png?06-06

The western half of the UK is under the stable air behind the boundary, while the eastern half is under the very unstable air ahead of it.

Precipitation fields from the models suggest that the greatest precipitation will develop towards the southern end of this boundary and then progress NNE, and this appears to be due to the breaking down of a shallow stable layer in the atmosphere (an inversion, acting like a 'lid' on the surface convection), suddenly releasing the convective available potential energy (CAPE) to generate large convective storms as opposed to the scattered, relatively disorganised storms that tend to occur without an initial 'lid' in place.

Certainly one to watch.

Also, both WRF and EURO-4 now show some notable convective precipitation around midnight across Central Southern England, much as Neil proposes, here's hoping their nicely electrified 

http://estofex.org/

An interesting read, though nothing dramatic - but of course this only extends to 06z tomorrow 

06Z GFS develops elevated activity a few hours earlier over the W Channel moving NE across CS England from 21Z.
This is followed by a more robust nose of instability which once inhibition mixes out should generate more surface based storms during Saturday, moving up through the UK.

Home growns on Sat pm across the E Midlands for instance may be quite significant.

Duane again

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

Updated watch for Saturday.

Whoever wrote the latest MetO warning desperately wanted it to sound like a NWS SPC warning...

"...possibly accompanied by frequent lightning... "

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1402009200

http://www.estofex.org/

Southern W->E under level 1 with Estofex up to 06.00 Saturday

Level 1 Esto usually indicates server thunderstorms, multiple deaths, large scale thurmonuclear war and Cliff Richard singing at wimbeldon.

So, thundery rain then!

They should commence somewhen this evening, most likely across the Brest Peninsula heading towards Dorset and Wiltshire area. I notice a few sferics from an isolated shower was triggered a few hours ago over the Brecons of Wales.