Yes I think we only managed to sit out in the sun during that fantastic May and that were it until 2013 lol!

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Without intending to go OT - 1998 to me wasn't too bad . In my area it was a bit iffy - but no way did it come across as bad.

But 2012 to me blows the socks off for me for bad summers. And what made it seem even worse was that it came on top of the bad summers of 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011. 2009 was probably the least bad out of that lot - But 2012 stands out to me as easily the worst.

I can go back much further to the early 1970s and late 1960s and obviously I was very young then - There were some shockers then of bad summers.

But Kevin Bradshaw put up the stats and 2012 was the worst since 1956. What is a bit worrying is that we've had worse summers than 2012 - hard to imagine really.

The very worst on record was apparently 1922.

 

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SATURDAY JUNE 7TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Low pressure to the SW of the British Isles will move slowly North over the Eastern Atlantic pushing a thundery trough North across Britain today.

GFS The GFS Ensembles today show High pressure desparately trying to ridge up from the SW while slack Low pressure is equally stubborn in its resistance to clear away from northern Britain. The net result is the general mix of plenty of dry and bright weather with reasonably warm conditions at times too. There will also be showers at times too these more likely towards the North and West.

UKMO UKMO closes it's run today with High pressure slowly nosing it's way up towards SW Britain with light winds across the UK and the shower risk restricted to Northern Britain by the end of next week.

GEM The GEM operational today is still slower to show any meaningful shift towards settled weather next week though by the end of it's run this morning High pressure does become established across the UK in 10 days time. In the meantime it shows shallow Low pressure around and giving rise to a continued risk of showers, especially in the North.

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a slow process towards High pressure slowly building North or NE towards Southern Britain later next week with showers continuing for a while yet before they become restricted to more Northern areas later next week with some pleasant dry and bright weather for the South.

ECM The ECM operational today looks very similar with a slow trend to higher pressure developing across the UK by the end of it's run with plenty of dry weather between well scattered showers next week before most parts become dry, bright and pleasantly warm with light winds late in the run.

MY THOUGHTS  The most common thread between this morning's output is two fold. All models show the area of High pressure to the South and SW next week gradually exerting more influence across Southern Britain with time. Secondly, all models show the process a painful one with shallow Low pressure hugging the North for much of the time and restricting the better weather here with a continued risk of showers well into the second weekend. With the process being slow and limited dry and bright weather in the South will probably not mean wall to wall June sunshine in high temperatures but probably mean that dry, bright and pleasant conditions are most likely with temperatures near to or somewhat above average in the sunshine.

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I don't think the outlook is bad this morning for my neck of the woods, yes several days will be wet but I also see plenty of scope for days like yesterday with warm, hazy sunshine and light winds. Indeed, that has been the story for weeks now with the weather on the ground better than many forecasts suggest.

Up north the worst thing in summer is zonality which limits the best weather to the SE, this slack set up with shallow areas of low pressure and COLs distributes any fine weather much more evenly and to date this spring/summer has been far better than last year. I have lost count this year of the number of days I could sit outside with a glass if wine in the evening but by the 7th June last year the number was exactly 3! This is the best early summer season since 2010 in Cumbria and long may it continue.

Happy from Penrith.

Andy

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Sounds good for me here. Thanks, Martin

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https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140607/06/78/hgt300.png

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140607/06/78/h850t850eu.png

Here's what the 06z (and to a great extent 00z) GFS op runs showed for day 3 in the Atlantic; a straight and strong section of jet which powers the shortwave troughs toward the UK.

Now take a look at the 12z:

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140607/12/72/hgt300.png

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140607/12/72/h850t850eu.png

A marked change given the range in question; now there is a marked trough/ridge sequence and the jet is not as strong. Shortwaves are no longer fired at the UK, instead the longwave trough in that trough/ridge sequence able to develop into a stronger system that in turn builds a stronger ridge ahead of it, though the UK 

 

This appears to be a classic GFS error; modelling the pattern too flat, though it rarely crops up as such short range!

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140607/06/129/h850t850eu.png

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140607/12/123/h850t850eu.png

That's a vast improvement for Thursday and much more in line with the ECM 00z op run - temp maximums a few degrees into the 20's across the SE and low 20's for much of the rest of England and Wales . Only NW Scotland fares poorly on this run, and settled conditions extend a lot further north than before 

 

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140607/12/147/h850t850eu.png

With warm air and a gentle northerly flow, the far south climbs into the mid-20's on Friday 

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140607/12/171/h850t850eu.png

With a lot less energy transferred to Scandinavia, the Atlantic trough is able to dominate the mid-Atlantic,  which in turn keep the high from retrogressing much. The ridge is even attempting to extend well NE and prevent further transfers of energy to our NE... this might be a pleasant FI to observe this evening 

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Just realised I was lost in time during that last post; the 12z GFS op run is similar to the 12z ECM op run of yesterday, not the 00z of this morning! 

 

In fact, the 00z ECM op run went with the flat jet just as GFS was. What's more, UKMO still has the flat jet this evening. Given that UKMO often seems to be one step behind on sudden changes, today's ECM 12z op run is going to be important in terms of what I anticipate in the model output tomorrow.

 

It would be strange for GFS to make a sudden adjustment to a more amplified solution at 3 days range without any sign of such a thing in the other models.

JMA is nearly there from the looks of things - just not as clear cut as GFS. I'm still waiting on GEM.

 

Whatever the case, GFS is far from the only model having troubles, I should point out.

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How about trying a quote.

Well the 96- 120 and 144hrs charts both the GFS and the ECMWF are opposing the 120- 144 UKMO charts suggestions, and looking on the period to Saturday on Meteox.co.uk running the Synoptics whichever model they use is bringing Low Pressure waving from the Arctic with NW Norway and Svalbard seeing some cold arctic system and snow showers for 13th June, UK light moderate winds from North and NNE and sitting under slack slightly favouring Lower Pressure sat up.

But the GFS and ECMWF have the Azores and NW Europe UK combo dry High Azores High- with generally warm settled not cool weather with light West and SW airflow or calm variable directions, pressure at 1025 I say.

Seeing that NW Central N Atlantic and Arctic PV To NE Europe PV Low Pressure influencing GFS and ECMWF as well more so UKMO, with SW Norwegian Sea Greenland and far N Atlantic Blocking High extend to near N UK, with areas of Mid West and Central NE Atlantic midsection Strong or at least moderate Cyclonic system Low and Denmark Central mid NE far NE Europe UKMO in Particular have Coold Airmass 546 dam air with 546 dam pushing South towards N NE Norway and the 564 dam air move SE from NE Europe, by Low pressure Cyclonic and that associated spread out areas of rain and showers Scandy Mid- Far NE Europe and same on Monday Tuesday for eastward movement of NMid Atlantic Low and 546 dam air and 564 to the South, mainly NW N Atlantic isobars fairly low and quite cool Monday and Tuesday for the West and Central North UK, all areas cool on Tuesday.

It therefore means that more GFS and UKMO updates will show us if there will be influence by Wednesday to Friday by the warming Azores High moving NE from our SE S and especially SW from the Azores and NW France- if the GFS and ECMWF are correct on today's 12z runs then UKMO and the Meteox.co.UK Synoptics showing the Northerly breeze for Thursday and Friday moving South from the N and then NE is either will prove correct or wrong!!!.

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SUNDAY JUNE 8TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Low pressure to the SW of the British Isles will move slowly Northeast over the Eastern Atlantic while filling slowly with a slack Southerly airflow across the British Isles.

GFS The GFS Ensembles today show High pressure continuing to be programmed to ridge up towards Southern Britain later this week with some fine and warm weather likely for Southern Britain. Low pressure is more reluctant to leave far Northern areas with some further rain at times and the long term trend this morning is for High pressure to ease away NW and the threat of showery Low pressure to move down from the North in Week 2 with showers most prolific across the SE.

UKMO UKMO closes it's run today with High pressure across Southern and Western Britain along with some warm and bright weather receding away towards the NW allowing a showery trough to move down over most parts from Scotland next weekend.

GEM The GEM operational today is probably the best of the output this morning if it's fine, very warm and sunny weather you strive for as it shows High pressure having moved up into Southern Britain later this week drifting slowly East into the North Sea with a very warm and continental feed of SE wind over Britain to start week 2 with most areas dry and sunny.

NAVGEM NAVGEM is also keen to build High pressure close to Southern Britain later this week and holds it in situ out to the end of the run close to the SW. The net result would be dry and fine weather with some pleasant sunshine and any rain restricted to the very far North.

ECM The ECM operational today also looks pretty good if it's fine weather your after as it too builds Hgh pressure up across Southern Britain later this week with some fine and very warm weather likely for many, especially in the South. Later in the run High pressure slowly drifts North and NW with a weak trough crossing South next weekend perhaps with a shower before high latitude pressureNorth of the UK runs the risk of showery Low pressure returning nearer to the UK later in week 2.

MY THOUGHTS  All in all this morning the output looks good as all models support a strong build of pressure close to Southern Britain later this week. To obtain a lengthy spell of fine Summer weather we would ideally like this to drift across towards Scandinavia and maintaining a ridge SW through Britain to the Azores but that looks unlikely. Instead it holds close to Southern and SW areas bringing nonetheless plenty of warm sunny weather before it's desire to drift North towards a position NW of the UK could open the door to either the NE or West of showery Low pressure regaining a hold later in Week 2. However, that is a long way off and is very uncertain at this range with the more certain prospect of some fine and warm weather with variable cloud cover to be enjoyed for many before any risk of that occurs.

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This sounds good - indeed some of the best forecast we've had in recent years. You can tell its trying to settle down and lets hope it succeeds - Looks a big contrast to the horrors of 2007 - to 2012.

 

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It's about time GFS and ECM settled on a solution. Plenty of flip-flopping recently so good to see some agreement on a settled spell of weather. It does bode well for the summer but like you say the positioning of the AH is crucial and I feel we'll continue to see some unsettled/thundery interludes from the W occasionally.

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Do you save that username when you log in?  btw welcome to two 

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Yeah... hi there WLAACI 

Any preferred shorthand versions?

 

Looking at the models tonight, GFS, UKMO and JMA have all trended towards the LP to the east being less influential, closer to GEM in that respect, which remains the furthest east with that high.

ECM has gone and thrown a spanner just as Sods Law states it must... the LP is more influential than on previous runs due to a weak slider low on Sunday. It's out on a limb compared to the rest of the models, and here's the thing - the model has a habit of going for slider lows too readily, but at the same time, when there is indeed one on the way, it tends to model the east/west position more accurately than the others do.

 

Overall, then, I'm encouraged by the trend in the consensus, but concerned/irritated by ECM going the other way 

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY MONDAY JUNE 9TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Low pressure to the SW of the British Isles will continue to slowly fill as it edges very slowly NE. Thundery troughs will move NE across England and Wales over the next 24 hours.

GFS The GFS Ensembles today show High pressure continuing to build across Southern UK from the South later in the week. From then on the general concensus from the model is for High pressure to stick around for quite some time, probably close to Western Britain from next weekend with plenty of fine and dry weather for all with temperatures close to average or somewhat above in the sunshine across the South. The indications for a more unstable and cool upper flow Northerly early next week shown by the operational run looks rather over done.

UKMO UKMO shows a large if not entirely well formed High pressure area across much of the UK later next weekend with variable cloud cover and sunny intervals across the UK in a light Northerly drift with average or sightly above average temperatures in the sunnier South.

GEM The GEM operational today shows High pressure close to Britain at the weekend with dry and pleasant weather drift slowly towards a position NW of the UK thereafter with a cool and more cloudy ENE flow likely to develop with a few showers possible then across the East and South.

NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning closes it's run with High pressure positioned NE of the UK with a strong influence from this under a ridge from it over the UK. Dry fine and largely settled conditions look likely under this regime with warm sunshine for many and light winds.

ECM The ECM operational today shows a rather complex High pressure pattern with it's centre meandering around the West of the UK next weekend and start of next week before it's influence weakens and possibly dissolves by the end of the run at the expense of equally ill defined Low pressure making inroads to the UK late next week. Nevertheless there is a lot of fine and pleasant weather to be found on these charts later this week and through the weekend and start to next week and despite a heatwave looking rather unlikely temperatures would generally on the warm side of average in the South at least.

MY THOUGHTS  The UK looks set to become largely settled with a lot of dry weather for all areas once we finally remove the showery Low pressure currently through the middle of this week. My only concern is the position that any High pressure takes up may not be condusive to very warm and sunny weather and it may turn out to be a rather cloudy High with the likely drift down from the North having had a lot of ocean passage in arriving here. However, should it move more to the East and allows the UK to tap into a continental feed then it could become much sunnier and warmer. I also feel High pressure looks under pressure from too much high latitude blocking which pressures it from Low pressure trapped out in the Atlantic or over parts of Europe later which could see us fall back into rather slack and showery Low pressure again in 10 days or so but that being a long way off is open to change so not worth dwelling on at this range. So in a nutshell a lot of dry, fine and pleasantly warm weather looks likely across the UK from the middle to end of this week.

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Looking quite settled for the foreseeable future and pleasant temps wise to but no heatwave.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/archives/2014060900/UW144-21.GIF

UKMO offers one of the most settled solutions this morning.

Most models see little or no trough feature breaking away from the Atlantic and heading over the ridge across the UK, with ECM the notable exception.

 

Given how UKMO and GFS look this morning, I'm seeing signs that high pressure is keen on reasserting to the NE sometime within the next fortnight. The question is, will it be closer to the UK than it was in late May, bringing a more settled outcome? Or, better yet, will it merge with a ridge from the Azores to produce a Scuero High that encompasses the UK?

 

Until then, the general theme is high pressure dominating across most areas from Wednesday for 7 days or more, with temperatures warm this week, perhaps very warm on Friday in the far S/SE, then cooling off at the weekend with something fresher to start next week, though to what extent is highly unclear.

 

Overall, not bad at all for mid-June 

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Good anaylsis SC.

Cheers SC 

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#Like 

Hi all,

I've done a video update using the latest update from the Beijing Climate Center;

Turning Cooler And Unsettled For Late June?

www.gavsweathervids.com

Very speculative piece this, so nothing to be unduly alarmed about at this stage.

 

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Lets hope not.

 

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Superb GFS and MetO tonight and only ECM wants to spoil the party with a cooler northerly flow.

However, if I had to bet on it I would go with the MetO and GFS combo anytime and as such I think the weekend and next week could be excellent, warm and sunny for most people and so far this summer is a far cry from the crap of the last 7 years.

Andy

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July 2013 wasn't too bad though Andy

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ECM does have the greatest level of influence from the trough to the east via weak sliding lows from the Atlantic, with the lowest temperatures as a result (though not far from average on the coolest days), but there is support for those sliding features from GEM and JMA, so it can't be discounted, unfortunately.

What GFS and UKMO do differently is phase the troughs in the Atlantic, preventing the one originally located to the NE of the other from 'escaping' east and traversing over the ridge across the UK. The ridge is then able to extend further E/NE, resulting in a much warmer solution from those two models.

 

The GEFS look split between the two evolutions, so all we (or at least those seeking as much fine, dry and warm weather as possible) can really do is wait for the next set of runs and hope that GFS and UKMO are on to something with the Atlantic behaviour.

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Last summer was great... Also hot - from late June through July 🙂 We had numerous days of +30C heat and many more in the 26-29C range. Incidentally last summer was the first time since 2006 that we managed to hit 30C ☀️