But Andy, on average, every summer for the past few million years has been better south of manchester than has been to the north

Zzzzzz....  Wake me up in 10 days time when the high pressure cell finally gives up (or maybe there's an early season hurricane)

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY TUESDAY JUNE 10TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A fresher SW airflow will covr the UK today. Pressure will rise through the day and tomorrow with High pressure moving North to settle close to Southern England later tomorrow.

GFS The GFS Ensembles today show High pressure never far away from the UK throughout this morning's 15 day output. As a result it shows a lot of fine and at times very warm weather likely especially but not exclusively in the South. Winds would be light and there would be plenty of sunshine for all. The operational run does show a phase of more cloudy and breezier weather as a SW flow sets up in Week 2 but this is just one option of a few others which could upset the fime weather though none of thee options is wholeheartedly supported hence the ensemble outcome of temperatures and fine weather only mdestly weakening in Week 2.

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure well established over Ireland by the start of next week with the weather dry and fine for virtually all of the UK in light winds mostly from the North or NE. As a result North Sea Coasts could be the exception to fine and warm sunny weather over virtually all of the UK.

GEM The GEM operational today is the fly in the ointment to a very settled group of short to mid term output this morning pulling High pressure away to the NW later next week with Low pressure over Europe pulling a cool and showery North or NE flow down across all areas later.

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows this verification in a diluted form as it maintains a ridge from High pressure to the NW late next week down across the UK. Nevertheless the slight Northerly aspect of the wind would have the effect of pulling temperatures down to more modest levels following a warm period upto about a weeks time. It does indicate the weather staying virtually bone dry for all though.

ECM The ECM operational today shows High pressure near the UK for the next week or so with plenty of warm and sunny weather to be shared across the UK for some considerable time. It too though is also keen to pull High pressure away to the NW though late in it's run though it prefers the effects of this to be to open the doors to the Atlantic with unsettled and breezier weather arriving for much of the UK by Day 10 in cooler weather by then.

MY THOUGHTS  In the short to mid term ranges this morning all output supports a period of a week or so of High pressure dominated weather with a centre close to Western Britain. The net result would be fine and sunny weather for nearly all areas and while not a heatwave as such things will turn pretty warm at times especially in the South. It's not until the middle to end of next week and beyond the cracks in the High pressure dominance begin to develop as a selection of output drifts the High away to the NW opening the door to either showery cool air from the North or NE or to the Atlantic Westerlies with their usual selection of troughs and rain at times in breezy and cooler conditions. However despite this there is plenty to be optimistic about over the next week or so with all of us able to enjoy some warm and fine early summer weather.

 if you have no choice but to live in the northwest of england and you prefer more hot and sunny weather then you have a reason to complain, but if you are free to move to sunnier climes dont beef about it 

I will agree there, after recently moving to near Aviemore 6 months ago i can honestly say the weather is far better here than on the E Lancs/ N Yorks border where i lived for 30 odd years.

Far more drier, useable days and not those relentless days of cloudy skies and drizzle

In the summers 2007-2012, there was a prevailing set-up, characterised by westerlies over the northern half of the country. There always seemed to be a convergence line of PPN that skimmed the N Wales coast and moved into NW England, then eastwards over the Pennines. Not normally heavy stuff, just all too frequent in occurence. The number of times I'd see a forecast or review and see that exact set-up was unbelievable. Last summer, even when the weather turned more unsettled, we had more of SW-ly influence to the flow, which moved the focus of most PPN areas more north.

At a glance, it seems ECM is slowly reducing the influence of the trough to our east, but is being stubborn with the small LP running over our ridge on days 4-5.

Meanwhile GFS and UKMO are fairly consistent with their previous runs, showing very slight shifts west and continuing to hold back the Atlantic energy rather than let it travel to Scandinavia.

This disagreement is now at the 4 day range, and it's quite unusual for UKMO and ECM to be so different at this range - a real head-scratcher!

GEM has produced a highly amplified evolution this morning, basically the ECM run taken to the extreme, and hopefully this won't come to pass - as Martin summarised earlier, it brings a notable trough from the NE to sit just east of the UK, with a big plunge of sub-zero 850hPa temps on day 10, though it's only transitory, as warm air quickly wraps in from the continent and would filter down during days 11 and 12.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for the GFS/UKMO version, which stays in the 20's during the weekend for much of England and Wales, then climbs back toward the mid-20's as next week unfolds 

Interesting comment by Captain Shortwave on Netweather:

"This is really starting to look like the case of models trying to pull the Scandi trough in the later stages of every run which then fails to verify. Exactly the same thing happened last July."

I might take a look at that if I find some spare time 

Yes the problem I've noticed over the years is we are not sheltered at all from anything coming in from the west so we tend to get all the gunk and awfulness, but it can have a silver lining like 5th January 2010 when we got over a foot of snow from the west! Areas to the south of here don't fare too badly due to being the "shadow" of the Welsh mountains which seem to be a decent barrier. The driest wind directions in my location are SSW and SE. Any other direction is soggy.

Seen someone over on Netweather saying the high projected by the Met Office for next weekend is not ideally placed, anyone know why this is the case?

Cheers Gibby, clear explanation 

Harrumph. We wait ages for some high pressure, and when it arrives, its the wrong kind 

Seen someone over on Netweather saying the high projected by the Met Office for next weekend is not ideally placed, anyone know why this is the case?

Originally Posted by: GIBBY 

I am inclined to agree with this and this factor increases over time. Most output has High pressure to the West or NW which can mean a lot of cloud is pulled around the Northern flank of the High and down over the UK. In addition it also means winds will be from the North so although some good temperatures are expected initially with time temperatures are likely to be reduced somewhat under that Northerly drift. The UK's highest Summer temperatures and sunniest conditions usually occur when High pressure is centred more towards the NE and East of the UK pulling clear and hot weather North and NW over Britain and this outcome is not supported with this High.

Originally Posted by: RobN 

Harrumph. We wait ages for some high pressure, and when it arrives, its the wrong kind

Originally Posted by: GIBBY 

Nah not that bad. Any kind of High pressure in Summer provides decent enough weather and this one will be no different with respectable enough temperatures. It's just that this ones position is unlikely to provide wall to wall sunshine or temperatures in the high 20's from the weekend on if tonight's charts verify.

Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather 

The vast majority who aren't up for days of extreme heat and building humidity will prefer the week or so of fine weather. Perfectly pleasant conditions.

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Regarding the HP position and imported cloud, the same synoptics can produce different surface conditions on different occasions; sometimes divergence aloft manages to dissipate the cloud enough for the sun to burn through, if the air is dry enough. Other times, this fails to happen, or worse still, a frontal system gets trapped in the mix.

At the moment for England and Wales, the models are signalling a warm to very warm Thursday and Friday, a warm weekend, and a warm to very warm start to next week.

I'm happy with that for now - later things need time to resolve.

Speaking of which, ECM has persisted with the idea of 'return of the mid-Atlantic trough', while GFS projects more of a North Atlantic trough. The former case comes with strong HP to the NW and weak HP to the SE, the flow becoming continental ahead of the trough. The latter pushes HP right through the UK for a number of days, before it retrogresses NW and actually approaches what ECM projects for day 10.

GEM has trended a little eastward from the previous run and hence lies quite close to ECM now, though still with a bit more trough influence from the east.

JMA has a lot more trough influence due to a stronger Scandi trough, but a look at the 850hPa temps modelled reveals a major error; those across Greenland are a lot lower than the other models show even at T+6 hours. This leads to the greater trough development later on - so best to ignore that output.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY WEDNESDAY JUNE 11TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. High pressure is moving North to be over Southern England by tomorrow while a weak Westerly flow carries a weak warm front close to the far NW of Britain later tonight and tomorrow.

GFS The GFS Ensembles today are very High pressure based with the centre always close to the UK throughout the run with only a slow migration far enough West at the end of the run to allow a weak showery Northerly into Eastern Britain. Temperatures will be somewhat variable but generally on the warm side of average particularly across the South and SW where sunshine will probably end up most prolonged.

UKMO UKMO ends it's run this morning with a High pressure belt stretching from the Norwegian Sea through Northern and Western Britain to the Azores with fine and settled weather predominating for all. Reasonably warm and sunny weather seems likely with slightly cooler and fresher conditions near North Sea Coasts and in the SE.

GEM The GEM operational today has a West is best look about it as it positions High pressure out to the NW from the weekend before drifting it west of Ireland next week. A lot of dry and bright weather looks probable with the best of the sunshine and the warmest temperatures likely towards the SW while some Northern and Eastern areas see something rather cooler in an onshore wind perhaps with a few showers at times from rather cloudier skies.

NAVGEM NAVGEM is quite similar to GEM taking the High out to the West of Ireland next week and setting up a Northelry across the UK freshest in the SE. Dry and fine weather should predominate on this run too though the odd shower and more cloud is likely across the East at times. Temperatures would range from average in the cloudier East and somehwta above in the sunnier SW.

ECM The ECM operational today shows High pressure close enough to the UK to be totally influential throughout the period of this morning's run, centred close to NW Britain for the most part and allowing plenty of dry, bright and at times sunny weather though some cloudier patches could interrupt this at times drifting South in the weak North or NE drift. Once more the best temperatures look likely in the SW where it would be rather warm at times while elsewhere average or slightly above seems the more likely temperature band.

MY THOUGHTS  Today's output seems more or less in unison in showing High pressure the dominant player across the UK over the next week or two. While the centre of the High never looks favourable enough in it's position to allow very high temperatures to develop beyond the next few days a lot of moderately warm weather looks likely away from North Sea coasts where onshore winds could make it rather cool on occasion. The SW could end up with a very nice couple of weeks and it's here where the higher temperatures and most sunshine is most likely with little chance of rain for quite some time. Elsewhere too sees little chance of rain though I suppose the odd shower could affect the East at times in the Northerly drift. In the extended outputs on offer this morning there is no definitive trend shown towards removing this High pressure anytime quick so a decent period of fine and pleasantly warm June weather looks inevitable for the foreseeable future.

Thank you Martin... Some decent weather until the  end of the month is great....  Will it a be a "Flaming June".......

ECM and GFS remove the HLB by day 10 with HP never far away from the UK, suspect where it is anchored will determine how hot but signs pointing to a dry and settled month