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ARTzeman
05 June 2014 11:19:45

 


Met Office Hadley             14.2c.           Anomaly          1.0c.      Provisional  to  4th.


Metcheck                         13.51c.         Anomaly         -0.64c.


N-W                                14.2c.           Anomaly          0.11c.


Mount Sorrel                    14.5c            Anomaly          0.05c.


My  Mean                         14.6c            Anomaly         -0.20c.


   





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
05 June 2014 13:22:52


I think I'm going to be very wrong this month UserPostedImage I reckon a >15c'er

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I agree. I think it is very unlikely we will see something under 15C. it is more likely we will end up above 16C. I was surprised to be third warmest in the table this month. I thought more people would have gone for a very warm month.

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


June is a very hard month to call. If we get over 16C then it will be the warmest June since 2003 (16.1) That was the warmest June since the classic one of 1976 - that had a CET of 17.0C
Apart from 1976 - most good summers have had relatively indifferent or even poor Junes with the decent weather confined to July and August.
Its quite rare to get all 3 summer months being good or very good - Perhaps this year might deliver that. It would be excellent if that did happen.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 



What happened with 2006? I know from looking at the stats that it wasn't as warm as 2003, but 2006 really sticks in my mind for having an amazingly hot spell - was it relatively brief, with cooler temps before or after? I have no recollection of June 2003 being hot, but then the following August will have eclipsed that (and I DO remember that spell!!)

Anyway, I'd like to seesome good summer weather tally with the kids' holidays, which hasn't happened for a long time. Last year we had a cracking spell in the first half of July, only for it to turn far less settled by the time the kids broke up from school.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



June 2003 was consistently quite warm but never scorching, rather like the type of July or August that ends up at 16C. I think if I remember rightly that it was the first June for a long time where the Heathrow daily max wax above 20C every day of the month.

The max anywhere in the month was only 30C, somewhere in the North Midlands which I recall also had the biggest hourly rainfall total ever, in the same month.

The prevailing air mass in June 03 was TM whereas June 2006 was more anticyclonic, sunnier and continental so maybe night time mins explain the difference.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
05 June 2014 18:07:47

Over the past four years or so, we've seen a lot of records broken, or just missed, so let's hope this summer is a record breaker for all the right reasons. 


 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Saint Snow
05 June 2014 18:43:58

I think I'm going to be very wrong this month UserPostedImage I reckon a >15c'er

Originally Posted by: TimS 

I agree. I think it is very unlikely we will see something under 15C. it is more likely we will end up above 16C. I was surprised to be third warmest in the table this month. I thought more people would have gone for a very warm month.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

June is a very hard month to call. If we get over 16C then it will be the warmest June since 2003 (16.1) That was the warmest June since the classic one of 1976 - that had a CET of 17.0C Apart from 1976 - most good summers have had relatively indifferent or even poor Junes with the decent weather confined to July and August. Its quite rare to get all 3 summer months being good or very good - Perhaps this year might deliver that. It would be excellent if that did happen.

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

What happened with 2006? I know from looking at the stats that it wasn't as warm as 2003, but 2006 really sticks in my mind for having an amazingly hot spell - was it relatively brief, with cooler temps before or after? I have no recollection of June 2003 being hot, but then the following August will have eclipsed that (and I DO remember that spell!!) Anyway, I'd like to seesome good summer weather tally with the kids' holidays, which hasn't happened for a long time. Last year we had a cracking spell in the first half of July, only for it to turn far less settled by the time the kids broke up from school.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

June 2003 was consistently quite warm but never scorching, rather like the type of July or August that ends up at 16C. I think if I remember rightly that it was the first June for a long time where the Heathrow daily max wax above 20C every day of the month. The max anywhere in the month was only 30C, somewhere in the North Midlands which I recall also had the biggest hourly rainfall total ever, in the same month. The prevailing air mass in June 03 was TM whereas June 2006 was more anticyclonic, sunnier and continental so maybe night time mins explain the difference.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


Thanks, Tim 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
AlvinMeister
06 June 2014 11:44:37
Sorry, was away on honeymoon.

15.1C please
ARTzeman
06 June 2014 12:40:48

Met


Office Hadley          14.0c.          Anomaly      0.7c.


Metcheck                      13.51c.        Anomaly     -0.75c.


N-W                             14.01c         Anomaly     -0.1c   


Mount Sorrel                 13.93c         Anomaly     -0.17c


My Mean                       14.7c          Anomaly      -0.1c    


 





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
07 June 2014 10:30:07

Met Office Hadley          13.9c.          Anomaly       0.7c. Provisional to 6 th.


Metcheck                      13.76c.        Anomaly      -0.39c.


N-W                             14.24c.        Anomaly        0.15c.


Mount Sorrel                 14.32c.        Anomaly        0.22c.


My  Mean                      15.0c.         Anomaly         1.7c.


 


  





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Global Warming
07 June 2014 13:57:30

After something of a dip in the CET in the last few days we should see it rising steadily up towards 15C by the end of the third week.



ARTzeman
08 June 2014 11:13:00

Met Office Hadley          14.2c.            Anomaly         0.9c.


Metcheck                      14.07c.          Anomaly       -0.07c.


N-W                              14.52c.         Anomaly        0.43c.


Mount Sorrel                  14.49c.         Anomaly        0.39c.


My Mean                        15.3c.          Anomaly        0.5c.





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Frost Hollow
09 June 2014 07:51:23

IMBY 12.76C


Min 8.1C


Max 17.4C


 

ARTzeman
09 June 2014 11:28:58

 


Met Office Hadley           14.5c.         Anomaly       1.1c.     Provisional to   8 th.


Metcheck                       14.34c.       Anomaly        0.20c.


N-W                              14.84c.       Anomaly        0.75c.


Mount Sorrel                  14.81c        Anomaly        0.71c.


My Mean                        15.7c.         Anomaly       0.9c.


      





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
10 June 2014 11:45:42

Met Office Hadley         14.7c.          Anomaly     1.3c.      Provisional to 9th.


Metcheck                     14.72c.        Anomaly      0.57c.


N-W                            15.18c.        Anomaly      1.09c.


Mount Sorrel                15.20c.        Anomaly      1.10c.


My Mean                      16.00c.        Anomaly      1.2c.


                   





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
11 June 2014 11:12:34

Met Office Hadley          14.9c.          Anomaly     1.4c.     Provisional to  10th.


Metcheck                      14.77c.        Anomaly      0.63c.


N-W                             15.3c.          Anomaly      1.21c.


Mount Sorrel                 15.21c.        Anomaly      1.11c.


My Mean                       16.1c           Anomaly     1.50c.


     





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
wallaw
12 June 2014 10:07:51
You have to say, looking at the latest model output, anyone lower than mid 15's is in trouble this month:(
Ian


Stockton-on-Tees
ARTzeman
12 June 2014 11:12:27

You have to say, looking at the latest model output, anyone lower than mid 15's is in trouble this month:(

Originally Posted by: wallaw 


 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
12 June 2014 11:18:18

Met Office Hadley        14.8c.      Anomaly     1.3c.      Provisional to 11th.


Metcheck                    14.87c.    Anomaly      0.72c.


N-W                           15.38c.    Anomaly      1.29c.


Mount Sorrel               15.26c.    Anomaly      1.16c.       


My  Mean                    16.20c.    Anomaly      1.40c.


  





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
12 June 2014 20:09:29

You have to say, looking at the latest model output, anyone lower than mid 15's is in trouble this month:(

Originally Posted by: wallaw 


   I thought I was being brave with a 15c guess.  Of course we'll get a heatwave here next week, when I'll be in Lanzarote! 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
13 June 2014 12:00:10

Met Office Hadley        14.9c.      Anomaly     1.3c.


Metcheck                    15.08c.    Anomaly     0.93c.


N-W                           15.56c.    Anomaly     1.47c.


Mount Sorrel               15.53c.    Anomaly     1.43c.


My Mean                     16.4c.     Anomaly      4.1c.


My CET  Watch             15.3c..............    





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Hungry Tiger
13 June 2014 16:55:09


You have to say, looking at the latest model output, anyone lower than mid 15's is in trouble this month:(

Originally Posted by: Caz 


   I thought I was being brave with a 15c guess.  Of course we'll get a heatwave here next week, when I'll be in Lanzarote! 


Originally Posted by: wallaw 



I went for 15C Caz thinking that might even be on the high side. June is often crap - but this one is showing signs already of being excellent.


Anyway I can live with that - I'll lose a few more points - well that's too bad.

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


ARTzeman
14 June 2014 10:28:29

The Number 15c.  has been reached....


 


Met Office Hadley            15.0c.       Anomaly       1.4c.    Provisional  to  13th.


Metcheck                        15.26.      Anomaly        1.11c.


N-W                               15.75c     Anomaly         1.66c.


Mount Sorrel                   15.76c.    Anomaly         1.66c. 


My Mean                         16.7c.     Anomaly         1.9c.    





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Global Warming
14 June 2014 11:56:45

Latest output suggests a levelling off of the CET now with a gradual rise again towards the end of the month. Current estimate is 15.27C by the 27th. We could get above 15.5C by the end of the month if the weather turns a little hotter. Will almost certainly be the warmest June since 2006 when we reached 15.9C.


The first six months of this year is currently on course for a CET of approximately 9.6C which is the second warmest on record exceeded only by 2007 with 9.7C.


What a contrast to last year when all of the first six months of the year were more than 0.5C below the 1971-2000 mean and the CET was 6.8C. This year all six months will be more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean.


What is really interesting is that there have been no extremes in the temperature this year. It has just been consistently well above average throughout the whole year.



Hungry Tiger
14 June 2014 19:01:52


Latest output suggests a levelling off of the CET now with a gradual rise again towards the end of the month. Current estimate is 15.27C by the 27th. We could get above 15.5C by the end of the month if the weather turns a little hotter. Will almost certainly be the warmest June since 2006 when we reached 15.9C.


The first six months of this year is currently on course for a CET of approximately 9.6C which is the second warmest on record exceeded only by 2007 with 9.7C.


What a contrast to last year when all of the first six months of the year were more than 0.5C below the 1971-2000 mean and the CET was 6.8C. This year all six months will be more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean.


What is really interesting is that there have been no extremes in the temperature this year. It has just been consistently well above average throughout the whole year.




Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Cheers Simon - Thanks this is very nice weather indeed - warm and pleasant - certainly not too hot and certainly not cold wet and miserable either.

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


ARTzeman
15 June 2014 11:30:22

Met Office Hadley        15.2c.       Anomaly    1.5c.   Provisional to  14 th.


Metcheck                    15.31c.     Anomaly     1.16c.


N-W                           15.85c.     Anomaly     1.76c.


Mount  Sorrel              15.84c.     Anomaly     1.74c.


My  Mean                    16.9c       Anomaly      2.1c.


                                  ~~~~


All Together                15.82c      Anomaly     1.65c .......





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Hungry Tiger
15 June 2014 12:07:24


The Number 15c.  has been reached....


 


Met Office Hadley            15.0c.       Anomaly       1.4c.    Provisional  to  13th.


Metcheck                        15.26.      Anomaly        1.11c.


N-W                               15.75c     Anomaly         1.66c.


Mount Sorrel                   15.76c.    Anomaly         1.66c. 


My Mean                         16.7c.     Anomaly         1.9c.    


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


Looks like I might be doing OK here and having just heard that things will be levelling off - that's OK by me.


that 15C looks good.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Saint Snow
16 June 2014 10:03:59

If it stays close to 15c, then I might just get away with it!


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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