The grass at the end of Wimbledon 1976 looked a bit more yellow than usual looking at some vids.

I was hoping for an insightful ECM run tonight, but instead it has decided to be quite different to all the other models with developments to the NW from as early as day 5, making it either the only accurate solution or a complete load of codswallop.

The consensus sees the ridge edging back  east later next week, while ECM has it pulling a long way west, with the trough over Scandi a lot more influential and temperatures considerably lower than the likes of GFS and GEM go for.

I think I'll take it easy tonight and focus on the football instead 

That would be dire and would be a throwback to the bad summers of 2007 to 2012.

I was hoping for an insightful ECM run tonight, but instead it has decided to be quite different to all the other models with developments to the NW from as early as day 5, making it either the only accurate solution or a complete load of codswallop.

The consensus sees the ridge edging back  east later next week, while ECM has it pulling a long way west, with the trough over Scandi a lot more influential and temperatures considerably lower than the likes of GFS and GEM go for.

 

 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

That would be dire and would be a throwback to the bad summers of 2007 to 2012.

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Not necessarily by any means whatsoever

All conjecture anyway.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Good point Matty - too early to tell - From what I can see from what we've had so far - at the moment this is looking like a very good summer.

I won't say any more - I don't want to put the kiss of death on it.

This June is one of the best Junes I've had in my part of the country so far this past 20 odd years. It's been really good and I mean good.

I see where you're coming from Gavin, but the charts I'm seeing tonight don't in any way resemble those that were commonplace throughout each of those 6 woeful summers. If anything, the set-up the models are showing is not a million miles away from what we had in mid-June 1995, and we all know how that summer turned out.

I know what you mean there when you look at the current synoptics, The July and August of 1995 was staggering - it really was.

The June of 1995 spoilt what could have been a record summer. The CET for June 1995 was 14.3C

This June is looking to get a CET of 15.2C - which is pretty good.

Another point which I'll make is this - so far we've had quite a few months with CET close to 2C above average - so if that was repeated for July and August this would put this summer way up the list of good summers.

Anyway that's something to look forward to hopefully.

June was poor in my part of the country last year. It really was - Endless nagging grey cloud on north and north easterly winds and temperatures jammed at between 14 and 16C for most of the month.

This June has been totally different this year and my God how welcome it is as well.

June 1995 in my area had a fairly mixed first half, with a mixture of fairly warm & bright days and others which were much cooler with a little rain and drizzle at times, although nothing overly heavy. However the period from the 21st through to the end of the month was amazing; we got close to 30C in my area on a few days (may even have reached it in fact) and is one of the best spells of June weather I can recall, probably the best in fact and really set the tone for the follwoing two months. Instances of temperatures reaching 30C in Scotland are rather more rare than in England, especially the south. Even last July, IIRC the highest we had up here was 29.5C or thereabouts which was recorded up in the Highlands (Aviemore I think, where I was on holiday during the week just passed!) In the 80's the summers of 1983 and 1984 both saw temperatures reach 30C or above in parts of Scotland, and it may even have happened in 1989 as well.

Bad in South Cambridgeshire?

You Should have been in Cumbria mate, it was pants, as was August, not a good summer despite all the hype.

Andy

Anyway, back to the models and both ECM & MetO bring in a real northerly drift next weekend so 'go west' is the message.

However, GFS keeps high pressure across the whole UK which would bring some very different surface conditions.

I will keep faith with the MetO model so while I expect a cooler northerly flow next weekend I dont think this is start of a trend and I think high pressure will dominate until late June.

As for July, I reckon a new umbrella could come in handy.

Andy

the models in general are trying to show high pressure in charge ad infinitum, but i think they get a bit stuck in a rut. some forecasts hint at a breakdown next weekend but i dont think it is obvious from the models.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SUNDAY JUNE 15TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. High pressure lies close to Western Scotland and Ireland with a Northerly flow across most parts of the UK.

GFS The GFS Ensembles today show High pressure to the West or SW of the UK throughout the period. The ensemble pack do show it's grip becoming more tentative at least for a time from next weekend and through this period the grip is released sufficiently to allow some risk of showery rain creeping down from the North at times in rather cooler conditions but overall a lot of dry weather is still shown for all.

UKMO UKMO closes this morning's run with High pressure to the NW of the UK with a NE flow over most areas with the continued mix of cloudier weather and sunny intervlas remaining with the added risk of the odd shower. Warmest and sunniest weather would still be most likely towards the SW.

GEM The GEM operational today continues to pull our High pressure back rather further into the Atlantic late this week and through the weekend with a Northerly flow gradually increasing the risk of showers across the UK from the end of this week and possibly bringing temperatures down a notch too later.

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure up to the NW at the end of the run with a cooler NE flow across the South and East where a few showers become possible with the driest, brightest and warmest weather towards the NW.

ECM The ECM operational today also continues the trend of a somewhat declining High pressure area later in it's run. In the meantime it's position just to the West of the UK maintains a dry and bright period with sunny spells. Later in the period the High's grip becomes more tentative and a slack Northerly flow could deliver some showers at times especially in the East.

MY THOUGHTS  High pressure is still the main feature of the weather over the next 14 days. It's position and proximity to the UK though becomes more tentative after this week with a regression far enough away from our shores to at least run the risk of some showery rain developing over the UK, most likely from the North. Temperatures as a result of a continuing Northerly drift will increasingly become suppressed to more average levels later as cooler uppers look like moving down from the North by the second half of the period. However, in amongst all this there remains a good deal of dry weather over the next two weeks and while a heatwave remains unlikely there will be  a lot of very useable and sometimes pleasantly warm weather to enjoy for the majority.

Thanks Martin.

Beginning to wonder whether we could be starting to evolve into a most unusual summer pattern , namely cool and dry.It's a very, very long time since we had a cool, dry summer, but if the high pressure continues to stick generally to the west or north-west this summer, it could be on?

TBH, that would be a most acceptable pattern, because even "cool" and dry is perfectly pleasant...and would probably please those heat-haters too.

Yes please, cool and dry would do me very nicely.

Like 1981.

Quite right.

Still looking settled but cooler and more cloudy in the east throughout the coming week.

Something more changeable or unsettled by next weekend into the start of the following week

Models continue to look fairly decent to me. No heatwave is on the horizon, but at this time two years ago we'd have given anything for a high pressure dominated outlook, even if it didn't mean wall-to-wall sunshine.

yes there are hints of the high retreating westward and low pressure over scandinavia and biscay becoming more dominant next weekend onwards. thats a long way off and it will be a good week to enjoy without being stifling.