Hello folks,

Here's the week ahead forecast video: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html

Here's the Written Thoughts: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html

The weather is pretty much fair this week.

If anybody interested in Glasto, I'm starting updates for that on the Events page from tonight.

No idea what we're doing @ GWV tomorrow - I'm open to suggestions Re. Sunday's video, otherwise I'll have to get my creative juices flowing and see what I can come up with.

We should have Terry's mid June to mid July forecast tomorrow as well.

Thanks as always for your support and to Brian and the mods for making it possible.

EDIT: Here's Sunday's video:

AMO, SOI/ENSO + SC24

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Cheers as always, Gavin P. Not a lot to get too excited over as things stand, but at the same time not a lot to get too worked up about.
  I might find myself using the word "ditto" in my early morning Cloud Master forecast as we go into next week.  

Thanks for the written Gavin ....

I thought I'd do throw in little homage to the lovely Sian Lloyd.

Thanks all.

Hi all,

Here's today's video - We're going reallu in-depth today:

AMO, SOI/ENSO + SC24

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

A rather electic mix of stuff, but I think there's quite a lot of interesting tid-bit's in this one.Let me know what you think.

Hopefully I'll have Terry Scholey's mid June to mid July forecast later today for you'all.

I think the cold winters could potentially start to re-appear from 2015/16 onwards.  I am not sure if the warm PDO this year and the cold AMO would put a spanner in the works again this coming winter and result in it being mild and mobile again.

Your videos are excellent, Gavin, and are well-suited to an amateur weather enthusiast like me!!

David,Northallerton

Thanks for your kind words SC and Bruced!

One thing I would say about 2015/2016, is that if we have strong La Nina going on, chances of a cold winter will be very remote.

We may have to wait until we come out of La Nina for our next decent shot (2016/2017)

All just idle speculation though. We may not even have a La Nina next year.

Both the Atlantic and Pacific are currently bucking the long term phase - to me, this is a chicken or egg situation where there is uncertainty over whether it is atmosphere or ocean (or neither) that is driving the amplification of the pattern.

The cool Atlantic is in response to last winter synoptics, brought about by the extreme positive PNA pattern, brought about by the cold upper level troughing in E.Asia meeting very warm tropical air masses ....and so it goes on....

The ocean and atmosphere have failed to couple as anticipated for a good few years now - leading to stuttering Ninos and failed LR predictions aplenty. Will this year be different I wonder -  trends taking shape in current models and  longer term for less amplitude but still maintaining upper highs over the Polar regions.

Plenty of interesting and unusual synoptics to keep the good videos going, Gavin.

Thanks Nouska. Pleased you enjoyed.

We are indeed in for a fascinating few years, especially as we wind down to solar minimumand SC 25.