Depends on the intensity of the high - but also a few other things as well.

I hope this isn't an indication of the whole summer - but having said that a cool and dry summer isn't all bad news.

If you can get some sunshine as well then it is pleasant - But a good dry and cool summer is rare - That is because to get the synoptics right for that is so very hard indeed.

I don't think it would take an awful lot to shift things to a more warm flavour. Perhaps we need a couple of disturbances to shake things up a bit later next week? I don't think it's something the models are capable of picking out at this range to be honest.

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

If today's weather - cloudy, cool nagging northerly breeze and drizzle this morning - is representative of the upcoming spell, I am not rejoicing. The models seem to be showing even cooler uppers over the next week or two, and unless there are sustained breaks in the cloud cover it's going to be unpleasant here relative to what one would hope for in June.

GOOD MORNING MODEL WATCHERS. HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY MONDAY JUNE 16TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A large anticyclone covers the NW of Britain with a light Northerly drift over most parts of the UK.

GFS The GFS Ensembles today shows the High pressure which will of dominated the UK through this week and next weekend showing signs of releasing some grip over the UK early next week as it moves away West further out into the Atlantic at the hands of a showery Northerly phase of winds. However, there are signs shown that could bring the High pressure back in towards the South of the UK later though a weak signal for Atlantic Westerlies to develop especially for the North are also visible.

UKMO UKMO closes this morning's run with High pressure to the West of the UK next weekend weakening slowly but maintaining a ridge across the South next Sunday with continuing fine and dry weather here with just the risk of a shower across a slack pressure gradient over the North next Sunday.

GEM The GEM operational looks very similar to UKMO at Day 6 moving on to develop a trough to the North of the UK which is pulled South across all areas next week with a much greater risk of showers and cooler conditions for all for a time at least.

NAVGEM NAVGEM is broadly simular in this theme developing a showery Low across Southern Britain in a week's time with some heavy, thundery and slow moving showers likely in temperatures close to average.

ECM The ECM operational today also continues the trend of a somewhat declining High pressure area later in it's run. This week and probably much of the weekend too continues largely dry and benign with variable cloud cover but from the weekend as pressure leaks away somewhat a showery Northerly flow may invade the UK early next week with this trough sinking South towards the end of the run with pressure building to the North. Day 10 looks likely that a lot of dry weather would lie over the North while Southern areas develop an unstable Easterly flow with the risk of some rain.

MY THOUGHTS  High pressure is beginning to show signs of declining somewhat as we move into next week with the most common theme being for it to pull far enough West over the Atlantic to allow a more unstable and potentially showery theme to develop over the UK early next week. There is then indecision between the models on where we go from there with the GFS ensembles and the GEM operational leaving High pressure never overly far from the UK, still to the West or SW while ECM and the NAVEGEM operationals look like airing towards something more noticeably unstable into next week. Despite all this though the short term is well agreed upon by all output and as a result this week should see a lot of dry and bright weather with just isolated afternoon showers over the hills possible and while never overly hot through the whole term of the outputs this morning things will feel pleasantly warm and occasionally humid at times especially in the South and West.

I think in this stage of June we need to wait a week or so before something more definite approaches.

GOOD MORNING MODEL WATCHERS. HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY MONDAY JUNE 16TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A large anticyclone covers the NW of Britain with a light Northerly drift over most parts of the UK.

GFS The GFS Ensembles today shows the High pressure which will of dominated the UK through this week and next weekend showing signs of releasing some grip over the UK early next week as it moves away West further out into the Atlantic at the hands of a showery Northerly phase of winds. However, there are signs shown that could bring the High pressure back in towards the South of the UK later though a weak signal for Atlantic Westerlies to develop especially for the North are also visible.

UKMO UKMO closes this morning's run with High pressure to the West of the UK next weekend weakening slowly but maintaining a ridge across the South next Sunday with continuing fine and dry weather here with just the risk of a shower across a slack pressure gradient over the North next Sunday.

GEM The GEM operational looks very similar to UKMO at Day 6 moving on to develop a trough to the North of the UK which is pulled South across all areas next week with a much greater risk of showers and cooler conditions for all for a time at least.

NAVGEM NAVGEM is broadly simular in this theme developing a showery Low across Southern Britain in a week's time with some heavy, thundery and slow moving showers likely in temperatures close to average.

ECM The ECM operational today also continues the trend of a somewhat declining High pressure area later in it's run. This week and probably much of the weekend too continues largely dry and benign with variable cloud cover but from the weekend as pressure leaks away somewhat a showery Northerly flow may invade the UK early next week with this trough sinking South towards the end of the run with pressure building to the North. Day 10 looks likely that a lot of dry weather would lie over the North while Southern areas develop an unstable Easterly flow with the risk of some rain.

MY THOUGHTS  High pressure is beginning to show signs of declining somewhat as we move into next week with the most common theme being for it to pull far enough West over the Atlantic to allow a more unstable and potentially showery theme to develop over the UK early next week. There is then indecision between the models on where we go from there with the GFS ensembles and the GEM operational leaving High pressure never overly far from the UK, still to the West or SW while ECM and the NAVEGEM operationals look like airing towards something more noticeably unstable into next week. Despite all this though the short term is well agreed upon by all output and as a result this week should see a lot of dry and bright weather with just isolated afternoon showers over the hills possible and while never overly hot through the whole term of the outputs this morning things will feel pleasantly warm and occasionally humid at times especially in the South and West.

Originally Posted by: idj20 

I think in this stage of June we need to wait a week or so before something more definite approaches.

 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

And then in a week's time, we'd still be none the wiser for it.  

But as things stand, not a lot to get excited over, but nor is there much to get worked up about.  

Originally Posted by: GIBBY 

I agree entirely Ian.

Looks like a three-way battle emerging by the weekend, between an Atlantic trough, a trough over Iberia and a trough over Scandinavia.

Having those three in that position does naturally place a ridge across the UK, and the 12z op runs are considering the possibilty that, what with the jet stream looking almost non-existent by that time, a stalemate could occur, allowing the UK to remain under a weak ridge right through the weekend.

GFS then goes for the Iberian trough becoming the dominant feature for a short time early next week.

ECM has the stalemate continuing until day 10, when the Iberian trough combines with the Scandi trough. If only the Scandi trough was weaker...

GEM manages to have the Iberian trough slip SW a bit, which keeps it from combining with the Scandi trough, but does allow the latter to control our weather Monday and Tuesday next week, before a ridge builds in over the formerly Iberian trough (now west-Med.), encouraged to do so by some westerly momentum in the Atlantic.

I think what we need to hope for is a bit of westerly momentum in the Atlantic to push the ridge east towards the UK, but occuring after the Scandi trough has shifted more towards Russia - otherwise, the ridge ahead would probably have to build NE, over the Scandi trough, potentially trapping it close to our E or SE as a slowly sinking and dissipating feature.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY TUESDAY JUNE 17TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. High pressure remains slow moving close to the far NW and West of the British Isles with a light NNE flow over the South and East and a NW one over the far north of the UK.

GFS The GFS Ensembles today shows the High pressure which will of dominated the UK through this week and next weekend weakening late in the coming weekend and more especially next week with a cool and showery North flow developing with Low pressure close to the East for a time. Later next week High pressure reclaims ground across the UK before it finally slips away to the South to allow an Atlantic changeable Westerly flow to develop across the UK.

UKMO UKMO closes this morning's run with High pressure still strongly established just to the West of the UK with light winds and dry weather for many to start next week with any showers restricted to the far NE in temperatures that will be average or slightly above for many especially towards the SW.

GEM The GEM operational today shows a belt of High pressure generally slow moving through next week in a belt stretching from the Azores across the North and West of Britain and on towards the Norwegian Sea. This would lead to predominanly dry conditions likely for most of the Uk though just an odd shower could be pulled down across the UK in a slack North or NE flow at times. Temperatures look like staying close to average or somewhat above especially in the Northwest.

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure over the Eastern Atlantic becoming squeezed away from the UK next week with a fresher Northerly flow developing across the UK with some showery rain possible at times in places.

ECM The ECM operational today also shows pressure slowly falling next week though it looks unlikely this will lead to any particularly wet weather anywhere through the period of the run. Instead the more likely effects will be slack winds and a few showers in some bright or sunny spells and temperatures close to average or somewhat above. It's not until Day 10 that the Atlantic wakes up in a more influential way with the prospect of cloud, wind and rain threatening from the West in the days following the closure of the run.

MY THOUGHTS  There seems very little common or major threat of a breakdown in the influence of High pressure over the course of the output period shown by the models this morning. Nearly all output maintains High pressure slow moving close to the West of the UK over the period keeping fine and bright weather for many with just the occasional shower drifting down from the North in the warmth of the days. With time there is some evidence of a more pronounced showery attack from the North, most likely early next week but even by Days 10-14 there is still a lot of High pressure not far away from the UK, close enough to continue to have an effect on the weather with any rainfall showery and scattered in nature while temperatures though unlikely to be of heatwave status keeping well up to average and somewhat above on any sunnier days among the majority of days that will show variable cloud cover and light winds.

The Iberian trough/Central Europe ridge idea has gained a little more weight this morning, and now manages to bring a decent weekend for many on most model output, with temperatures potentially hitting the mid-20's across the SE, nicely into the low 20's for much of the rest of England and Wales.

This follows similar temperatures for much of the south on Thursday, as a gentle northerly feed brings conditions similar to those of last Friday, though not currently looking as unstable overnight . This Friday could be similar too, though perhaps not quite as warm (low 20's).

The outlook beyond the weekend depends on the strength and proximity of that Scandi trough, as it has done for so long now. UKMO and GEM offer a weaker trough that clears away more readily to allow a decent ridge in from the SW (in the case of UKMO that's an extrapolation based on similarity to GEM on day 6).

ECM has a stronger trough that sticks around longer, but the Iberian trough offers support for a ridge from the SW to try and build through the UK anyway, which is... half-successful.

GFS drifts that Iberian trough NE to combine with the Scandi trough, meaning no support for a ridge from the SW within the 10 day range - instead we wait for the Scandi trough to slowly ease away, with high pressure taking until the start of July to gain a proper foothold right through the UK.

I do get the feeling that next week could see quite a bit of modification from the current 'consensus' (to use the term loosely!).

Thanks for the output Martin... Saturday Solstice should  have a good sunrise... If not too much cloud cover...

The boring outlook continues with cloud and fairly cool conditions away from the west/southwest.

No sign of any decent plumes whatsoever.

When does west of scotland get the best of the weather.... so its about time somewhere else gets the skirting fronts and gloom while everyone else bakes    24 and sunny outside Glasgow

Hi all,

I've done a longer range video update:

July To Septmeber From JMA;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Late summer looking very, very good on this update.

[quote=dagspot;610074]

When does west of scotland get the best of the weather.... so its about time somewhere else gets the skirting fronts and gloom while everyone else bakes    24 and sunny outside Glasgow

[/quote

i have relations who used to live in the n.w of scotland, now they are in the n.e and they always reckoned on average may was the best month for sun in the n.w. of scotland.

Except that "somewhere else" rely on spells of decent summer-like weather to attract tourists and make them keep wanting to come back because it's what they expect, it's how those locations make most of ther revenue. South and east-facing coastal towns like Folkestone would suffer financial-wise if they keep ending up with anticyclone-type gloom lasting for days on end at this time of the year - and thats exactly what happened this time last year.
  And yet I live at the most nearest point to the Continent. Go figure. But today was a bit better in terms of sunshine amounts.

More of an Atlantic awakening on the 12z op runs - that works out nicely for us as it drives the ridge of high pressure across the UK and also introduces a bit of zonal motion to Scandinavia, which could encourage the trough there to finally pack its bags and move out - though the models aren't keen on that in the 10 day timeframe at least, as new low pressure systems just keep on rolling in to replace the old ones.

I suspect that high pressure will begin trying to return to Scandinavia starting about a week from now, and could eventually succeed - that being in some two to three weeks time, though. Just a feeling really, little more!