Could be some cold nights for late June coming up

WRF model goes for low single digits for some us, won't be surprised to have a ground frost here early Sunday morning.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014062706/nmmuk-0-46-0.png?27-13

GFS going for an air frost for some of us on Monday morning

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014062706/69-778UK.GIF?27-6

Well it should peg back the CET if nothing else. And boy do I need the CET pegging back

All eyes on the unseasonably strong storm later next week... it looks like one that will 'plough the road', cutting a new path for the jet stream.

Interestingly, the models have trended toawrds a bit more resilliance from a ridge to our SE, resulting in a flatter pattern which parks the trough to the N or NE rather than having it dig right down across the UK.

Unfortunately, a shortwave trough looks likely to get involved with things around next Saturday, which may result in a quite autumnal day with strong winds and heavy rain.

After that, there are signs of the Atlantic jet stream pausing for breath just long enough for the trough near the UK to fade away and also drift north or northeast.

Hopefully that will come to pass in some form, as it encourages a ridge to build into the UK from what looks to be an exceptionally strong Azores High (not been able to say that for an outlook in July for a long time!).

Given that my break in Wales will start ont he 5th - the day of the storm - and finish on the 12th, I can just see that new ridge taking hold across the UK and persisting for a fortnight or so to give me a massive deja-vu from last year, when the prolonged fine spell got going right after my week in Cornwall - and right after a burst of westerly momentum, come to think of it! 

The ECM 12z joins GFS and UKMO in offering hope with regards to that initial storm system staying to the north of the UK.

It then goes one better than GFS by making little of the shortwave trough at the weekend as opposed to blowing it up into an autumnal storm.

Then... it scores yet again by lifting the trough complex smartly out to the north, with a decent ridge startign to build in by day 10.

With any luck, ECM is leading the way - but I'm not counting on it given that it was the most unsettled run this morning, bringing a second LP system right down across the UK.

Having said that, the sequence depended on the initial trough digging south a bit, and that's now gone... so yeah, hopeful is the word! 

Up to Monday the bulk of any rain looking like from Lancashire southwards, drier the further north you are for a change.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014062712/nmmuk-25-72-0.png?27-19

Action replay from the same date in 2008!  I got married on the Saturday (5th) that year and saw the progged storm for that weekend about 7 days before, and thought "That won't verify...."   WRONG!!

The first weekend in July in 1988 (2nd/3rd) also produced a similarly unseasonal storm following the start of the breakdown a week before.

Let's hope the same isn't about to happen this year.....

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140627/18/117/h850t850eu.png

The LP is toned down a bit from the 12z...

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140627/18/117/ukmaxtemp.png

Very warm across the south - consistent with previous runs.

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140627/18/141/h850t850eu.png

More of a ridge to the SE than the 18z.

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140627/18/141/ukmaxtemp.png

Still very warm in the SE - a change from the previous runs, which had already started bringing in fresher air and lower temperatures (though the 12z was still warm in the SE).

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140627/18/165/h850t850eu.png

Still that developing shortwave - but further west, and believe it or not...

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140627/18/165/ukmaxtemp.png

The SE manages a third very warm day on the trot!

All this is then followed up with a better ridge from the SW than previous runs - more in line with the ECM 12z op run:

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140627/18/240/h850t850eu.png

HP then seems to slowly gain the upper hand as FI progresses.

Hopefully this trend for a more resiiliant ridge to our SE, and stronger push of HP from the SW as the major trough clears, will continue tomorrow.

Sounds good - looks like we're in for a decent settle down - as it should be at this time of year.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SATURDAY JUNE 28TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A shallow area of Low pressure over Southern England will gradually move away East to allow all areas to fall under the influence of a rather cool but light Northerly flow.

GFS The GFS operational today shows a period of quiet and settled weather at the beginning of the week giving way to amore unsettled period later next week as Low pressure to the North pulls a trough down across the Uk from the NW. thereafter pressure builds strongly close to the west with dry, bright and warm conditions likely especially in the South. The ensembles endorse this basic theme though the ridge programmed for Week 2 of the run has a more likely axis to be further South than the operational with continuing risk of outbreaks of rain across the North in Westerly breezes while the South stay dry and bright.

UKMO UKMO shows it's closing chart for next Friday morning with Low pressure to the North of Scotland, High pressure over the Azores and a trough clearing the South of the UK. So after a spell of rain over Southern England next Thursday night will clear to a mix of sunshine and showers with most of these across the North.

GEM The GEM operational today shows an unseasonably deep Low close to Northern Scotland late next week with windy and showery weather for all. This is then likely to lift out to the North early the following week as pressure builds from the SW with some dry and bright weather developing for many.

NAVGEM NAVGEM too drifts Low pressure down towards Northern Scotland late next week with an unsettled and sometimes wet weekend shaping up under Westerly winds and cool weather.

ECM The ECM operational today is much like UKMO early next weekend as a cold front in association with a Low North of Scotland moves SE across the UK with rain followed by brighter weather. Pressure then rises under a NW flow later with a mix of a lot of dry and bright if not overly warm weather with scattered showers these chefly across the North.

MY THOUGHTS  The weather pattern seems to be gradually simplifying as we move through the latter stages of next week and beyond. After a ridge midweek brings a spell of quiet and settled weather with some warm sunshine all models show Low pressure likely to drift down from the NW. Most output keeps it well North of the UK with just a trough bringing a spell of rain down across all areas from the NW while GEM and NAVGEM bring the Low much closer to mainland Scotland and ensure an unsettled weekend for all. This then looks likely to gradually fill and move away as the resident Azores High begins to build back NE towards the UK certainly towards the South and possibly to other areas too. So all in all a fairly benign weather outlook with some rain featuring on occasion, most prolific towards the NW while all areas will see a fair amount of dry and bright weather though without any sign of searing heat anytime soon.

Well, it appears we've seen the latest example of the models really struggling with a particular pattern.

In this case, it's one where there is a strong high pressure across the Azores, a weak trough close to or over Spain, a relatively weak ridge to the northeast of that trough, and an Atlantic storm arriving to the north of the UK.

Initially, the second of those ridges seems to be completely overlooked by the models. All they then see is the jet diving south on the eastern flank of the Azores High, bringing the Atlantic storm to the UK.

- but then, future runs see more and more of a ridge to the NE of that trough near/over Spain, and hence the steering pattern changes, essentially leaving little or no room for the jet to dive south. The only way it could would be if it was fairly weak and able to take a sharp turn.

This time around, the jet looks too strong to dive through the gap, and instead it must travel straight on to the east, keeping the main Atlantic trough to the north of the UK.

Now of course, a shortwave trough - featuring a sharper dip south in the jet - is far more capable of digging down into the gap, and that's just what the models are showing for next Saturday.

Fortunately, as the broader trough to the north drifts further in that direction, the main thrust of the jet is drawn in that direction too, which looks like setting up a classic 'mid-summer zonal flow' across the Atlantic; one where the jet is far enough north to keep the storms from having much influence on the UK, with high pressure from the SW having a big say in things.

A complication could be what happens with the shortwave trough - as the main jet moves away, odds are it will become a cut-off low. Hopefully it will have had enough westerly momentum to leave it well to the southeast of the UK and allow that ridge to build right across.

This may seem like a lot of analysis for the range of 6-10 days, but the broad-scale evolution has an unusually high level of support both from the usual models and the longer range ones as well. Even GEM, which digs the main trough a lot further south than the other models, still lifts it out quite quickly by day 10, with a decent ridge starting to build across.

Looking at the runs I see nothing to get excited about with temps not far from average at times with some rain from time to time although never overly unsettled as of yet.

I have to agree with Whether Idle. 

From a good weather perspective 2014 is doing really well down here.

Since March daytime temperatures have been a steady 2 or 3c above normal, sunshine amounts have been ample and rainfall below average, but not massively so.

This latest 'breakdown' since Thursday evening is yet to deliver a drop of rain here in the far SE.

The air is consistently warmer. In summers 2007-2012 a moderate SW'ly onshore breeze in Summer such as today had an edge to it, right up until mid August. The mild winter weather really did keep those SST's up this year. Today with that SW'ly breeze we are sitting at 19c, a similar set up in recent years would have maxes around 17c in such conditions.

There could be some thundery showers tonight and early tomorrow before the next ridge pushes in to warm things up. 25-26c looks on offer again on Weds/Thurs. Next weekend looks briefly cooler and perhaps showery but the long term signature is one of the Azores High edging in from the SW to bring a fine second half of July.

Mid July IMO is the time of year that dictates how the remainder of the summer will go. It's looking good..very good. Summer 2014 has potential to be right up there with the best.

Even Aberdeen may see some good weather ! 

Nice analysis there Steve and I hope the unpleasant spell progged for the end of next week is as brief as possible.

GFS keeps on increasing the strength of that ridge to the southeast for midweek - now enough to bring mid-20's widely on Wednesday and Thursday, with high-20's in the SE on the latter of those 

Trouble is, UKMO has gone and thrown out a run that shifts the Atlantic along more quickly, which would act to drag the frontal systems through the UK somewhat sooner. How soon is unclear, but Thursday's high temperatures probably end up being restricted to the far SE in that version of events.

Ever since the mysterious dissapearance of the charts to +72 hours from public view, the model has often produced runs that are very quick to move low pressure along. Usually the model drops the idea again on the next run. Not sure why this behaviour has begun, or whether it is linked in some way with that seemingly vanished output.

Still, the sequence of events looks be tolerable (i.e. briefly rubbish then steadily improving) so long as we don't end up with something more like GEM's version of events, which digs the main trough south a fair bit more than the other models and then uses that to give the Azores Ridge a hard time.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/2014062812/gfs-0-96.png

GFS for day 4.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014062812/ECM1-96.GIF

ECM for day 4.

What in the name of...?!

ECM has heights vastly higher to the N and NE of the UK even at 72 hours, and by 96 hours that results in the Atlantic storm being a considerable distance to the west of where GFS (and UKMO) have it.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014062812/ECM1-120.GIF

Thursday is settled and very warm across an even wider area than GFS goes for.

That at least gives GFS some breathing space after that UKMO run went so far the other way.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014062812/ECM1-192.GIF?28-0

Having the main trough so much further west means that the shortwave low is further west too. That promotes a height rise over Europe... and the main trough is backing west as well - a very interesting scenario this!

With such a huge disagreement at such short range, I really don't quite know what to make of this other than best wait for the morning runs to see if any of the solutions gains the upper hand - right now it's a total standoff!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

Ah... seems ECM has taken a trip in the Tardis to an apocalyptic future 

This does look to have impacted on the modelled heights as well, which has most likely messed up the progression of systems and would explain the sudden large reduction in the ability of the Atlantic to push east.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif

As stunning as this is for heat lovers  it's not remotely realistic.

Even without this whole temperature malfunction, the sudden removal of a strong Azores High, consistently signalled by the other models and ECM too up to the previous run, would raise strong suspicions that the run was off on one.

JMA going for a deepish low pressure system next Sunday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1921.gif

850's

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1922.gif

Looks like a wet old day 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014062812/J192-594.GIF?28-12

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SUNDAY JUNE 29TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A weak Northerly flow covers the UK today. A Low pressure area approaches a position well to the SW of England tomorrow.

GFS The GFS operational today shows the main feature of the weather being the Azores High and the way it influences the weather day to day across the UK. There are periods of unsettled and showery weather behind which pressure rises occasionally sufficiently enough to give many areas a fair amount of dry and bright weather too. The Ensembles give even more credence to the extent of a ridge of High pressure from the Azores High interspersed by occasional interventions of troughs from the NW increasing the risk of occasional rain affecting largely the North of the UK at times. Temperatures are indicated to be maintained not far from average over the UK.

UKMO UKMO today indicates a complex Low pressure area to the North of the UK at the start of next weekend with blustery westerly winds with rain followed by showers pushing across from the West in temperatures suppressed as a result.

GEM The GEM operational today also shows a windy and unsettled period developing next weekend as Low pressure resides close to or over Northern Britain. Thereafter a slow improvement is shown to develop as pressure builds slowly from the South and SW bringing fine and dry weather across most parts by the middle of week 2 when it will of become generally warmer for all especially over the South.

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a very similar pattern next weekend with Low pressure over the North of the UK in charge while it looks as though further Low pressure would affect the UK in the first days of the week that follows with further rain and breezy weather for most at times in cool Westerly winds

ECM The ECM operational today is also showing next weekend as a wet and breezy one as Low pressure to the North keeps unstable weather with embedded troughs enhancing rainfall at times. With Low pressure then trundling down the North Sea in the early days of the following week further cool and showery conditions are likely before the trend thereafter looks to be for High pressure to ridge up from the SW across the UK later that week.

MY THOUGHTS  After the fine weather of the first half of this week more unsettled weather is scheduled by all models to come down from the NW later in the week and more particularly next weekend when very breezy and showery weather looks likely UK wide in rather cool conditions for early July. In the period that follows there is reasonable agreement between the models that a slow improvement is likely as pressure looks like rising under association of the Azores High extending a ridge towards Britain later that week. With winds from a West or NW direction well into the outer reaches covered by this run temperatures and sunshine amounts could be rather suppressed especially towards the North but many areas away from the far North should become dry if the average of this morning's outputs is achieved and temperatures with time should gradually recover if pressure builds as shown.

Thanks Martin. Sounds as though things may well improve again after an unsettled interlude later this week and next weekend.

I'm starting to wonder if all the models are having data issues...!

This morning none of them agree on things even at the 4-5 day range.

GFS has the jet weaker than all of the others, with the jet meandering about quite a bit more - this from what is usually the 'king of zonal' 

While the idea of not phasing the energy and producing a more complicated solution makes a lot of sense to be, ECM and UKMO are having none of it. The latter remains the fastest with the Atlantic.

GEM seems to give GFS' solution some thought, managing to produce a sort of blend of ECM and GFS out to day 7, before high pressure builds very strongly in from the SW to give a stunning end to the run.

It seems that the models are having a nightmare over the strength of the jet stream as it blasts through Iceland on Wednesday. Perhaps this is down to uncertainties regarding the relatively low temperatures in Greenland interacting with the much warmer temperatures towards the UK...?

The energy that GFS breaks away rather than phases begins to track across the Atlantic in just 72 hours time. It barely even registers on the ECM run, but can be seen on the GEM run and even more so on the short-range, high-res GME run - which is interesting.

It seems to also influence the 'tilt' of the Atlantic storm system, angling the jet more SW-NE than W-E. This then builds a bit more of a ridge towards Svalbard, which in turn causes the Atlantic storm to lift north a bit, and that results in the shortwaves not combining with the old storm system, leaving it to die a death just north of Iceland.

Given how soon that feature comes into play, it ought not to take long for the true solution to become apparent.