Model Output Discussion 2-6-14 >>>· Page 15

Hungry Tiger
Advanced Member

01 July 2014 09:07:06

Without intending to go OT what we're looking for in the realistic sense is some sort of reasonable settle down by the second week of July.

If July and August could deliver the likes of what I've had this June - in some respects it would be one of the best summers I've had.

Not too hot and certainly not cold by any means.

Most days in June one could go out without a coat or pullover and that certainly isn't bad especially by the standards of 2007 to 2012.

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Charmhills
Advanced Member

01 July 2014 09:12:46

#352

Your average British summer I guess.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

Well Above average so far: (June)

Met office Hadley 15.5c. Anomaly 1.4c. Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck 15.28c. Anomaly 1.14c.

N-W 15.97c. Anomaly 1.88c

Mount Sorrel 15.83c. Anomaly 1.73c.

My Mean 17.3c. Anomaly 2.1c. (ArtzeMan)

If you are referring to the future weather then all we can say with any certainty is today - Friday looking warmer and sunny and dry for many. Saturday to Monday look cooler windier wetter; beyond that the weather should settle down from the SW.

WI

Originally Posted by: Charmhills

There are big regional variations of course with cloud amounts being rather disappointing here a little NIMBY from your preceptive I think.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

briggsy6
Advanced Member

01 July 2014 10:28:11

#353

I dont mind a sunshine & afternoon showers scenario as helps keep the pollen count down.

Location: Uxbridge

Weathermac
Advanced Member

01 July 2014 13:00:37

#354

Your average British summer I guess.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills

Well Above average so far: (June)

Met office Hadley 15.5c. Anomaly 1.4c. Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck 15.28c. Anomaly 1.14c.

N-W 15.97c. Anomaly 1.88c

Mount Sorrel 15.83c. Anomaly 1.73c.

My Mean 17.3c. Anomaly 2.1c. (ArtzeMan)

If you are referring to the future weather then all we can say with any certainty is today - Friday looking warmer and sunny and dry for many. Saturday to Monday look cooler windier wetter; beyond that the weather should settle down from the SW.

WI

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

There are big regional variations of course with cloud amounts being rather disappointing here a little NIMBY from your preceptive I think.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills

Coventry has just had it`s warmest and sunniest June since 2010 Duane not a million miles from Loughborough old chap

cultman1
Advanced Member

01 July 2014 13:02:14

#355

Gibby's latest analysis makes depressing reading
and yet Brian Gaze generally goes for a decent July in his latest forecast
From what I have read it looks like the UK will be stuck in a rut at least for next week or so with high pressure unable to build to any degree in the medium term ?
Is this nailed on for next week now or could the models flip back?

Whether Idle
Advanced Member

01 July 2014 13:27:32

#356

The variations in perception are massive. As for My post ealier being nimby re June, that is plain wrong. I think the NW and W have done pretty well in June 2014. I enjoy the weather especially when its as good as this and as modelled in the reliable timeframe;-)

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

Medlock Vale Weather
Advanced Member

01 July 2014 14:42:20

#357

Rainfall up to Thursday sees the bulk of the rain the further west and north you are, driest in the south and the east.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014070106/nmmuk-25-72-0.png?01-13

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm

Charmhills
Advanced Member

01 July 2014 15:57:19

#358

Your average British summer I guess.

Originally Posted by: Weathermac

Well Above average so far: (June)

Met office Hadley 15.5c. Anomaly 1.4c. Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck 15.28c. Anomaly 1.14c.

N-W 15.97c. Anomaly 1.88c

Mount Sorrel 15.83c. Anomaly 1.73c.

My Mean 17.3c. Anomaly 2.1c. (ArtzeMan)

If you are referring to the future weather then all we can say with any certainty is today - Friday looking warmer and sunny and dry for many. Saturday to Monday look cooler windier wetter; beyond that the weather should settle down from the SW.

WI

Originally Posted by: Charmhills

There are big regional variations of course with cloud amounts being rather disappointing here a little NIMBY from your preceptive I think.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

Coventry has just had it`s warmest and sunniest June since 2010 Duane not a million miles from Loughborough old chap

Originally Posted by: Charmhills

It doesn't feel like it as cloud amounts have been disappointing at times though Coventry is over 40 miles away from here.

And I'm not an old chap!

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

Gavin P
Advanced Member

01 July 2014 16:19:13

#359

Gibby's latest analysis makes depressing reading and yet Brian Gaze generally goes for a decent July in his latest forecast From what I have read it looks like the UK will be stuck in a rut at least for next week or so with high pressure unable to build to any degree in the medium term ? Is this nailed on for next week now or could the models flip back?

Originally Posted by: cultman1

In today's video update I'm calling next week cool and unsettled, but with the caveat that there's a LOT of uncertainty.

Personally I'm finding this summer very, very hard to forecast and my perception of that model relaibility is pretty poor right now - In the video I muse whether this unrealibility could be down to the developing El Nino, which isn't coupling up to the atmosphere all that well.

Anyway, I've still got to do my July month ahead forecast (probably on Thursday) but in the meantime I'll have Terry's update for July this evening. Will be interesting to see what he think's is going on.

Edited by user 01 July 2014 18:06:03 | Reason: Not specified

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Charmhills
Advanced Member

01 July 2014 17:13:13

#360

Yes another unsettled Met/o 12z tonight Gav.

As is the GFS 12z to for most of it and quite cool to as low pressure moves in from the east in FI.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

cultman1
Advanced Member

01 July 2014 17:55:46

#361

This really is looking dire from Friday onwards for
seemingly all of the UK. Are the models basing their projections on short to medium term or right out towards the 3rd/4th quarter of the month?