Hello folks,

Here's the  week ahead forecast video: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html

Here's the Written version: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html

A showery start, but improvements from mid-week. Hopefully.

Will have the CFS Six Month Look-Ahead for July tomorrow.

*Note - I'm having a short break next weekend, so there will be no "Gavin's Thoughts" next Saturday.*

Normal service will be resumed on Saturday 19th July.

Edit: Here's the CFS Six Month Look-Ahead Video For July: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/catchup.html

 

 

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Cheers as always Sir Partridge Of The Gavin. Not a lot to get excited over but not a lot to get worked up about - much like the Spring we have had and so far this Summer.

It is me, or this summer has a 1980 look and feel about it? I remember how that had an ordinary summer where it didn't get that hot but nor was it that cold but with enough dry and bright days to play outside on a regular basis.

 

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Thanks Gavin .. A mixed bag week.. Hope it is better for your break .. Happy Days..

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This summer has far exceeded 1980 in Dover at least. This is looking like being the warmest year EVER according to the CE T, a long way to go, but on target. We've had an extremely mild winter, a warm spring, with abundant sunshine that has been great for strawberries and other soft fruits. June was warmer drier and sunnier than the average across pretty much the entire country. These are the facts that add up to some brilliantly useable weather, and I hope July continues where June left off. It's doing pretty well so far with a maximum of 28.7c yesterday making a scorching 84 f in old money. That will help boost the annual CET nicely.
WI

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I think Ian meant a 1980's feel as opposed to 1980, LOL!

To me it's a strange summer so far with consistent warmth, but never especially hot or humid. A cooling breeze has never been far away.

Very pleasent really, but I think the lack of anything particularly exciting so far is telling in how quiet the forums have been.

The pattern is interesting because I can easily see it doing dramatically down-hill during second half of summer, with the high pressure pulling back into the mid Atlantic allowing a stationary trough to form over us.

At the same time, I could also see the Azores High building strongly and maybe even forming a blocking high with the Scandinavian ridge - If that should happen we could be on for our hottest August since 2003.

It will be interesting to see which way it goes.

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Fascinating alternatives Gavin. Your first observation may well prove to be right and I do remember previous summers when the high pressure stubbornly sat out in the Atlantic giving the UK at best a mediocre and coolish summer of sorts, but nevertheless I hope the second option wins out in the end.

Thankyou. Gavin.

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Nice point there Ian - I know what you mean and yes it does feel like that.

Not too bad in many respects - but no long hot or sensational spells either.

 

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Thanks all.

Here's the CFS Six Month Look-Ahead video (July 2014)

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/catchup.html

Have to say, not a great deal for coldlovers to get excited about.

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Lo, unlike this time last year when the CFS was showing the mother of all winters.

What could be a big stick in the spokes for this coming winter is how the expected nino event is now looking a bust according to this report.

http://news.yahoo.com/peru-says-el-nino-threat-over-waters-cooling-232314417.html

I don't think El Nino is over as such. What's happening is that we're developing a weak, maybe reaching moderate, Modoki El Nino, so regions 1 and 2 will cool and the warm waters will be centrally based in regions 3.4 and 4.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino12Mon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

I've been talking about this a lot in my recent El Nino update's, so anybody that's been following my updates won't be especially surprised about what's going on.

Certainly isn't going to be a "mega El Nino" event though, but that's been obvious since the big drop in the SOI back in March was reversed in April and May - To get "mega El Nino's" you really have to see the SOI go through the floor through spring and early summer, then with the ocean and the atmosphere reflecting each other so well the whole thing starts to feed back on itself and that's how you get the 97-98 type events.

With regards to what a Modoki El Nino could mean for winter, many recent El Nino's have been Modoki type's actually. This kind of centrally based El Nino seem's to increase the chance of a cold winter in the US and maybe even for us... Though as ever when it comes to UK winters there are many other things to take into account.

I may blog about all this on my website this evening.

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Yes I was surprised at the headline as I felt a weak niño at best was on offer. Those colder equatorial waters do seem to gathering some momentum though and I was wondering whether or not we could see a possible collapse of even a Modoki niño?

JMA have a great interactive page where you can fiddle about with various types of Nino and how they affect a whole raft of meteorological parameters over a variety of lag times. Look through all the drop-down options before you start (latlon is the whole globe).

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/newoceanindex/index.html 

As ever Nouska, very, very interesting link. 

Will have hours of fun playing with this!

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