Bring it on with the 564 on the south coast!!

Still on course for some sort of plume later in the week though models naturally should firm up on the detail as time goes on.

Or a cracking heatwave for two weeks, like we had last July.

No models are showing a cracking heatwave for 2 weeks are they David.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Very warm and increasingly humid Met/o 12z with showers/thunder risk by late Thursday into Friday.

The same problem remains this evening after a frankly rather unhelpful set of model runs;

ECM and JMA see the jet diving SSE and developing a trough somewhere close to the Azores, but all of the other models see the jet diving more SE and developing a trough over Iberia.

The former helps develop a ridge close to our east and draw up a decent plume which lasts for several days, while the latter has the Iberian low interacting with an Atlantic trough to open the doors for an unsettled westerly regime.

I'm dissapointed to see UKMO modelling something more akin to GFS, as that means that either that solution will be close to the mark or that model will be letting itself down.

 Perhaps the Brazil-Holland game will prove more conclusive...

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SUNDAY JULY 13TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A trough will clear Eastern Britain this morning followed by a ridge of High pressure crossing from the West. A new trough will affect the NW tonight.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  A lot of dry and bright weather with some rain or showers at times. Remaing quite warm.

GFS The GFS operational today shows temperatures on the rise this week as High pressure over the near continent pulls warm and humid air NE across the UK midweek most prolific across the South and East. A thundery breakdown looks likely at the end of the week as a broad trough crosses NE extending cooler and fresher conditions with sunshine and showers as Low pressure to the West of the UK moves North over the Eastern Atlantic. Later on further warm and humid air is shown to flirt with Southern and Eastern parts where a lot of dry weather occurs. Further North and West will see further occasional rain or showers at times with Low pressure up to the NW. The Ensembles extend the fine and warm conditions in the South at times to all areas to end the run under a strong anticyclone centred close to or over the UK.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a small but significant thundery Low moving North to Scotland ending a very warm and humid few days towards the end of the week with a band of heavy thundery rain or showers before introducing fresher and cooler Westerly winds and a mix of sunshine and showers for all to end the run.

GEM The GEM operational today also brings a period of very warm and humid air towards the end of the week before a thundery Low is absorbed by a large Atlantic depression which becomes resident close to northern Britain for the rest of the run. The very warm conditions would break down to thundery showers and fresher air crossing the UK by next weekend with a mix of sunshine and cool showers in Westerly winds to end the run.

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows very warm and humid air too for a time later this week before it too shows a thundery trough introduce a change to fresher but light Westerly winds with sunshine and a few showers to end the run, these chiefly in the North.

ECM The ECM operational today shows very warm conditions later this week across the South and East before a thundery trough crosses NE over the UK late in the week introducing cooler and fresher air for a time with a few showers. The rest of the run shows warm and humid air flirting with the South and East again later with troughs bringing occasional rain and cooler air to the North.

MY THOUGHTS  We continue to lie on the periphery of both High and Low pressure systems over the next two weeks. As a result in July we can expect a lot of dry and bright weather interspersed with some short and more unsettled spells. The source of the air is the main feature of this morning's output with interventions from very warm and humid air sucked up from Iberia later this week and perhaps again in Week 2 leading to some impressive temperatures at times, especially across the South and East. Equally there will be cooler and fresher Atlantic air displacing humid conditions at times when a refreshing Westerly wind and pleasant conditions with scattered showers is likely. Nowhere looks like receiving anything particularly unusual over the period with July continuing where June left off with temperatures remaining on the warm side of average and more sunshine than average with rainfall amounts suppressed generally but with a few exceptions possible locally where local thunderstorms occur.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13817.gif

Friday looks hot for the South

I'm sure northern and central England will be a few degrees hotter than that chart suggests. 23-27C?

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Masterful

The plume still on though it does vary from model to model but the idea is still the same, very warm if not hot/humid with a risk of thunder by Thursday onwards.

one hell of a summer run from 12zgfs pressure again rises from the the s/w later on

imo 30c looks possable for the s/e mid week to saturday this week

gfs mean later on

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

looks good for most

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

Hot, humid and increasingly thundery ECM 12z.

the cut off upper trough again, courtesy of the ecm 12z op. unlikely to that degree but certainly a possibility.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

ECM fi remains very warm still.

Could be some very sticky nights IMO.

JMA is very warm, not much else to say, late this coming week is looking very warm/hot for quite a few of us and increasingly humid.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma962.gif

15+ uppers moving in

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1202.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1682.gif

Even at the end of the run it remains warm/very warm

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1922.gif

GFS has taken massive steps towards ECM tonight, and JMA is giving it a good nod.

UKMO is being stubborn with the flatter solution, while GEM keeps the showing sudden development of a strong Atlantic storm system days 5-6, which seems rather too energetic. Both do still bring 850hPa temps not much lower than ECM does for day 5. The plume then gets shunted east more quickly for day 6, though.

What ECM goes on to produce for days 7-10 is of great interest in terms of unusual synoptics for the time of year, but not something I'd bet on at this stage.

Having said that, the slower Atlantic progression that serves as a catalyst for such developments is something the other models often trend toward, so the option is certainly on the table 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY MONDAY JULY 14TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A ridge of High pressure will cross East today before troughs of Low pressure extend East across Northern and Western Britain today and tonight clearing the SE tomorrow morning.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly quite warm with sunny spells but with some showery weather next weekend everywhere becoming more restricted to the North and West later.

GFS The GFS operational today shows cooler weather following a thundery period at the end of the week. Then a cooler Westerly flow with some rain or showers continues for a while before further High pressure and accompanying high temperatures returns at times especially across England and Wales through the rest of the period. The Ensembles show a lot of dry and very warm weather too next week following a cooler and fresher weekend. The High pressure responsible is shown to support fine conditions for nearly all areas before the heat leaks away late in the run with some cooler showery air towards the East and South later.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a much cooler and unsettled wekend to come with outbreaks of rain and showers in cyclonic winds as Low pressure trundles slowly North and East across the UK.

GEM The GEM operational today shows cooler and unsettled conditions at the weekend as the thundery Low pulls slowly North to the West. The following fresher Westerly flow is shown to be much more resilient than the other models bottling the European heat to the South of the UK and maintaining a slack and cooler Westerly flow with occasional rain or showers chiefly in the North and West.

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a similar cooler trend once the thundery breakdown moves North at the end of the week. Low pressure only slowly moves away to the NW maintaining cooler and more showery conditions well into next week especially in the North and West.

ECM The ECM operational has cooler Low pressure in charge next weekend as the previous days heat is swept away. There will be rain and showers scattered about nationwide. The trend thereafter is for the Low to fill away North and a ridge to develop over the South again with very warm conditions slowly developing again across the South and East later next week.

MY THOUGHTS  There seems to be plenty of opportunity for fine weather to feature strongly at times over the next few weeks especially in the South and East. However, the models show the chance of more showery and occasionally thundery interventions at times too, especially this coming weekend. What happens beyond that is less agreed upon with GFS in particular showing a large High pressure sitting over or close to the UK delivering lots of very warm and sunny conditions through the second week for nearly all areas and while other models don't stretch out that far there is a strong trend for Iberian heat to want to nudge back North into at least Southern and Eastern Britain again through the course of next week.

outstanding no Hot word mentioned at all , i lost count of the number of times cooler was mentioned , is this Retron in disguise here 

You know, that UKMO run isn't cool at all - it's warm and muggy from start to finish as the LP slides under the HP to the NE and very warm air wraps around from the east.

This morning, that model keeps heights low across Greenland, and GFS isn't far away. ECM on the other hand builds heights there strongly. The mid-Atlantic trough still works with a weak ridge over Europe to bring back some more settled and increasingly warm conditions to England in particular, but it's not as stable as what GFS shows.

The thing is, ECM has often showed a Greenland High on the odd run when there's a trough in the mid-Atlantic, and over the past few months this has always been followed by a run where heights remain lower to our NW and rise more to our N and NE instead.

Given what GFS has come up with this morning - the mother of all heatwaves in FI as blocking sticks around to the near-NE and links with HP from the SW while troughing sticks in the mid-Atlantic - it will be interesting to see if ECM does that again this evening.

The pattern from the middle part of next week onward is reminiscient of that which we started the summer with... but this time, HP looks more inclined to build through the UK (beyond this coming weekend, at least) and to our near-NE, rather than over central Scandinavia, where it tends to be too far away to provide settled conditions to the UK.

Worth keeping an eye on it - could be something to remember in the workings...

you never know James

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Very warm if not hot, humid and thundery by Friday for most away from the far west.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem962.gif

There are variations from model to model on the plume but good agreement now more of less.