http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Shows that the 0z suite has a wetter interlude between 18-21 July in a generally warmer than average (the story of this on-course-to-be-record-breaking-warm-year) picture.

The Op was clearly one of the warmest of many warm options.

These model forecasts are just what we want for today as its St Swithins Day tomorrow.

I think its fair to say that the outlook for the next few weeks is more than OK.

If big thunderstorms turn you on, Thursday night is looking super-sexy for many

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

From the GFS 6z suite - SLP and T MAx.

Looking warm or very warm for a while, SLP looks pretty high quite a way ahead according to this model. 

Scrub-fire threat developing into July?

GFS has thrown out a slightly flatter run for the 12z op run, with the jet pushing a little further into Europe and hence into the plume, driving low pressure development just to the east of the UK which combines with the main Atlantic trough to bring a westerly flow into the UK along with a fair bit of rain, including some potentially significant convective features.

This isn't matched by UKMO and GEM, which continue to be more amplified, and UKMO has actually upgraded the plume from its previous run, managing to get the 16*C isotherm across the SE for a time. GEM still brings the 20*C isotherm very close to the far SE, but that model seems to have a problem with overdoing the extremity of airmasses - both hot and cold ones.

The key to the longevity of this plume is how the jet - hence the trough to the west - digs south just east of the Azores. It's not all that easy to see from the synoptic charts really - the margins are that small in this case.

Whatever solution we end up with, it doesn't look like being stable for more than half a day really, with strong thunderstorms probable later on Thursday and into Friday. Then it'll be a case of whether a drier wedge of air manages to work its way in and clear out some of the 'convective debris' along with upper level clouds being thrown out by further storms across Spain and France.

We might see a level 2 out of this from ESTOFEX... perhaps a level 3 somewhere in the continent 

...based on how it currently looks, that is - highly subject to change! 

Looking beyond, that GFS run has also suddenly raised heights over Greenland when previous runs did not. This is just like what ECM came up with this morning. At this point in time, the UKMO and GEM runs have countered concerns raised by the GFS run in terms of the outlook beyond this weekend, but if ECM is similar to GFS this evening, then the probability of a decent ridge from the southwest bringing about a lengthy settled and increasingly warm/hot spell will have reduced markedly - so here's hoping ECM is more like yesterday's 12z effort instead! 

CAPE and lifted Index as modelled on 12z GFS for Friday 0000hrs:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn8411.gif   

For heavens sake Matty - I don't know where you get that idea from. This summer for me has been better so far than any I have had here since 2006.

And on reading the models and details of things - I'm adding to the compliments by drawing what I see to be a perfectly decent positive conclusion - and you're teasing me.

What on earth is all that about.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014071412/gem-0-240.png?12

This day 10 GEM chart sums it up fairly well I think - the ridge is still looking to be on the scene, but it's uncertain whether it will manage to build right across the UK or be restricted more to the SE.

With HP looking to be located close to the NE (assuming GFS is incorrect to shift it more to our N/NW), the confidence in the modelling of that ridge is likely to be on the low side, as the models struggle with HP systems in the region of Scandinavia.

Some of the American forecasters that I follow on Twitter have been suggesting a developing pressure pattern over the eastern side of the US similar to what they had in January.

Can anyone more knowledgeable than myself shine any light on this possibility - and if so could we therefore expect a ramped up jetstream heading our way once more?

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20140714/12/ecmt850.096.png

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20140714/12/ecmt850.120.png

That could bring 32*C in the SE if enough sun breaks through, and overnight it could remain above 20*C in many parts of that region, with the centre of London perhaps staying a few degrees warmer what with the winds being so light.

The thunder potential is about as high as I can ever recall seeing at the 4-5 day range, bearing in mind I only started paying real attention to the charts in 2008.

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20140714/12/ecmt850.192.png

A big sigh of relief from me when that came through; the block is back to the NE and supporting the ridge from the SW 

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20140714/12/ecmt850.240.png

As the HP cell grows large, maximums climb as we develop some home-grown heat. What's more, such a large HP area slowly sinking into Europe, coupled with low pressure around the Azores, is a recipe for a lengthy heatwave of notable magnitude 

With UKMO and GEM supporting ECM far more than GFS, there's plenty of reason to suspect that the latter has just thrown a wobbly - hopefully the 18z will bring it back in line with the others. If not... well, it would be highly unusual for a combination of ECM and UKMO to get it that wrong at just 3-4 days range, but stranger things have happened! 

It would be highly unusual in the summer, but it is normal in the winter. Whichever model keeps it mild and wet is invariably correct and has been demonstrated time and again - even if UKMO and ECM are in agreement on a cold spell, if GFS does not climb on board as well, we all know what happens next - the models previously showing proper cold back away from it at the eleventh hour.

So in the current case, I would back UKMO and ECM, whereas in the winter scenario I would back GFS if it was out on a limb showing mild. Not that I am cynical about winter forecasting reliability - the mild models are very reliable!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm722.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

Very warm if not locally hot/humid ECM 00z and .

To hot for Matty to handle!

Yes - Matty appears a little "glass half empty" this morning

I admit the GFS is shocking right into fi this morning but ECM fi builds a ridge in again and keeps it very warm throughout.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY TUESDAY JULY 15TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Winds will be slack Westerly over the UK today as a trough moves NE over NW areas tonight and slowly SE tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Warm for many areas with occasional rain at times especially in the NW following the showery period this weekend.

GFS The GFS operational today shows cooler weather following a thundery period at the end of the week and through the weekend. Cooler Westerly winds with sunshine and showers leads on into a fairly unsettled operational run this morning with further troughs and Low pressure in the vicinity of the UK for the remainder of the run with rain and showers at times with temperatures returning to near average. The GFS Ensembles also show changeable conditions maintained over the UK next week and beyond but with more chance of dry weather from High pressure to the SW of the UK over the South at times while Northern Britain see more Low pressure to the North influencing conditions there.

UKMO UKMO this morning closes it's run with a developing ridge across the UK replacing the thundery and showery weekend. Things look like turning cooler and fresher for a time.

GEM The GEM operational today is unimpressive if it's fine weather your after. Low pressure developing this weekend with thundery showers opens the door to more slow moving UK based Low pressure next week with showers or outbreaks of rain mixed with some brighter spells in temperatures returning close to the seasonal normal for many next week.

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows cooler Westerly winds next week following the heat and thundery plume at the start of the weekend. High pressure remains fairly close to Southern Britain and this could feed some warmer and drier conditions into Southern and Eastern Britain at times.

ECM The ECM operational still flies the flag for a good week of fine and sunny conditions next week as it stands alone in building pressure strongly enough just to the NE of the UK and linking SW over the UK resulting in sunny and increasingly warm conditions developing again for many through next week following the sultry and thundery period at the start of this weekend.

MY THOUGHTS  Quite a mixed bag between the output this morning and not much of it very good for fine weather fans. However, there are some encouraging signals still shown by ECM in particular. The differences begin as soon as this weekend in how quickly the Low pressure to the West bringing the thundery weather this weekend moves away and allows pressure to build again behind. Pressure building to the NE is also a factor with many output runs placing this too far North and East and as a result trapping Low pressure over or close to the UK having trundled in from the West off the Atlantic. The ECM operational has a clean break from Low pressure as this Northern High builds and links to our High to the SW bringing a steady return to fine and warm conditions for many next week. Which is right? Well despite being in the minority I feel that ECM won't be far off the money with better weather developing at least for many Southern and Eastern areas next week following a volatile and showery weekend to come. Pressure from Atlantic depressions could be too strong for the High pressure to the NE to withstand or prevent Low pressure near Iceland to affect more Northern and Western parts of the British Isles at times but even here I think some of the output over does the extent of these systems. As always of course more runs are needed and time alone will tell if my theory is correct or not.