Thanks Martin

What a fax chart for storm fans

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t84

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/cape-et-lifted-index/66h.htm

17.94 would be spot on!

Fab summer ecm mean

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1201.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1441.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.html

As I suspected, the 00z GFS effort is a little flatter than the 18z. Good thing is it's not as flat as the previous 12z was, so progress of sorts has been made.

It manages to keep the southern half largely settled and mostly warm to very warm through to day 10, this most prevailent in the SE.

ECM and UKMO are more amplified still, getting the ridge in more substantially, with good long term prospects even considering the day 10/11 blip on the ECM run that Martin noted.

GEM sits in between GFS and ECM/UKMO, producing a decent sort of run and also featuring the LP at day 10 that ECM does, except that it tracks further south and throws up a brief 'mini-plume' ahead of it.
If the LP continues to be shown, a track heading more to our SW/S is something I'll be looking out for.

In the meantime, the plume is looking to land pretty much as it did yesterday evening, with high 20's and maybe a 30*C tomorrow followed by temperatures potentially climbing a couple of degrees higher on Friday.

As for the thunderstorms, EURO-4 isn't seeing much destabilisation away from far-western areas Thursday night:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/07/16/basis00/ukuk/prec/14071800_1600.gif

So it could be that late Friday is the timeframe to watch for many of us.

So the Op was on the unsettled and cooler side

Hot in the SE on Friday up to 30C, very warm in some other areas

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014071606/nmmuk-0-55-0.png?16-13

It's going to feel oppressive for some of us with the added high Dew Point, some areas 21C

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014071606/nmmuk-18-57-0.png?16-13

Next week looks good as well , just in time for the visit to N Devon

 Yup you were right WI gfs has moved much closer to ecm now as has ukmo.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0&carte=1

Brillant run on the 6z gfs mean 850 for london

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Certainly hints of quite an epic hot spell starting to develop now!

Quite a difference between east and west with the uppers on ECM. If anything things are slightly further east this evening. But it's only a slight adjustment.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014071612/ECU0-72.GIF?16-0

The WRF update still shows the South East and East Midlands hitting 30C on Friday.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014071612/nmmuk-0-51-0.png?16-19

The following night/morning temps won't get any lower than 20C for the London area.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014071612/nmmuk-0-64-0.png?16-20

Another hot day on Saturday

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014071612/nmmuk-0-72-0.png?16-20

But that heat building like a pressure cooker nasty thunderstorms may break out for some people

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014071612/nmmuk-1-65-0.png?16-20

Evidence for a very warm, locally hot second half of July continues to grow tonight...

What I like about tonights 12z ecm Steve is the trend for the azores to keep pumping up from the s/w it seems to be the trend thus far for 2014 summer which has been very good for the s/e thus far

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

as Gav said it might turm into something special summer of 2014 lets hope so.

Evidence for a very warm, locally hot second half of July continues to grow tonight...

 

Originally Posted by: bledur 

Oh to be young again.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Indeed, 30 yrs ago I'd smile and got one in return, now they'd say what you looking at old perv?!

Now I know what Steve is up to!

Hi Tim.

The signs for a decent spell of summer weather have been there since April.

High Pressure has been prevalent over the Azores and has frequently ridged towards to the UK bringing sustained reasonably settled weather patterns.

What has also been in place, largely unabated, is higher heights towards the NE over Scandinavia. A sustained settled pattern however has never quite been able to establish itself due to energy finding its way between these two high pressure areas at various times in the last couple of months.

Models starting hinting at lower heights towards the Greenland area around the 3rd week in June..hence trying to steer the jet on a more NE'ly path between Greenland and Iceland to Svalbard rather than on a SE'ly track towards the UK. 

Once the jet is steered NE'wards....bingo..we get an Azores/Scandi High pressure link. 

Its still not set in stone and there are no clues as to its longevity..but based on the weather patterns so far this year (since March) you really wouldn't bet against it holding out until at least mid August bringing us a summer to remember.

Good times 

Evidence for a very warm, locally hot second half of July continues to grow tonight...

 

Originally Posted by: idj20 

Oh to be young again.

Originally Posted by: bledur 

Now that's what I call an active warm front.

But, indeed, looking nice and settled next week after this weekend's hiccup, I take we're now at this time of the year where the seas surrounding Kent has little bearing on our weather.

It it too soon for me to compare this year to 1990? (that had a mild, stormy and wet Winter, then it lead to a kind and warm spring and then after a rather slow and sloppy start to that summer the rest of the summer saw to heat reloads, including a big one on the frst week of August).

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

June this year was a much better month overall than that month in 1990, IIRC. This year, after an unsettled opening two weeks here, the second fortnight was very good indeed and early July hasn't been bad either. In 1990 the good weather didn't really get going until around mid-July, but onjce it did, it lasted until we had almost reached mid-August.

1990 was the last time before Sunday just passed that the Germans won the World Cup, beating Argentina in the final 1-0 just like this time. It would be great if the weather over the coming 3-4 weeks could also mirror that of the same period 24 years ago.

Thanks Steve,     and a belter of a gfs mean which sums your words up I missed a little bit of and late spring and early summer as I was in hosptial but I feel a lot better now.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=180&mode=0&carte=1