HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY THURSDAY JULY 17TH 2014.
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A ridge of High pressure will move North across the UK today followed by falling pressure to the SW of the UK with a thundery trough moving North across Western areas tonight.
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Warm or very warm at times with the chance of thundery showers at times, especially in the South.
GFS The GFS operational today shows the UK maintained within quite warm weather throughout the period as High pressure to the NE of the UK throws a ridge across the UK. There are periods when lower pressure to the South and SW give rise to some thundery showers in places especially across the South and west of the UK. The Ensembles too show a similar pattern of higher pressure to the North with thundery Low pressure maintaining the risk of locally heavy rain in between the spells of very warm sunshine more likely towards the South.
UKMO UKMO this morning also shows High pressure to the NE of the UK becoming dominant later next week with a ridge across the UK. There is a sign that further thundery Low pressure could develop towards the South and SW late next week re-introducing the risk of thundery showers here later within the otherwise warm or very warm and sunny conditions.
GEM The GEM operational also indicates a large High pressure area to the NE and then North of the UK next week. The North looks like becoming bone dry with sunny spells and warm weather while the South see more of an Easterly breeze. It will be very warm and somewhat humid here with thundery Lows to the South giving a risk of scattered thundery showers at times here.
NAVGEM NAVGEM holds the ridge from the High to the NE further South with cloud and a little rain in the NW for a time next week before it too joins the rest of the UK in mostly fine warm and settled weather under a strong ridge later next week.
ECM The ECM operational this morning shows quite a complex and slack pressure pattern next week mostly revolving around a differing day to day extent to the strength of a ridge of high pressure from an anticyclone to the NE. Much of the time the weather would be dry and warm or very warm but with shallow Low pressure areas or troughs trying to invade the UK from the West or SW at times the risk of scattered thundery showers has always to be catered for.
MY THOUGHTS This morning offers us a very pleasant couple of weeks overall when a large High to the NE of the UK generally holds off the influence of any would be attacks from Atlantic Low pressure areas for the UK. Despite this things look unlikely to be straightforward and while the high temperatures and fine weather look like the most dominant factor for the majority there will be some interventions from thundery showers from shallow upper Low pressure especially across the South at times. While there are small variations between the models on this general theme there is sufficient parity on the overall trend for this scenario having a strong chance of evolving so while the chance of a heavy shower could be welcomed by some the vast majority of time will see the UK under warm or very warm and sunny conditions and parts of the North and NE may see no rain at all if some of this morning's output verify beyond this weekends very thundery phase.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset