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nsrobins
18 July 2014 10:41:27
Yep a blinder at 1.30am. Pulse and crawlers in abundance and some real retina-scorchers and canon fire thunder typical of higher level activity.
Repeat tonight and what looks like a significant mcs developing sat afternoon
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
idj20
18 July 2014 10:46:04

As expected, the Folkestone Rain Deflector is being at its maximum efficiency as it all passes by to my west but that was forecast by the models anyway. Looks like my next chance saloon for this location is Saturday night but even I'm not feeling that one. We shall see.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Surely tonight Ian ? 


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map/u10fde5dd#?map=Rainfall&fcTime=1405620000&zoom=8&lon=-0.19&lat=51.08


 

Originally Posted by: idj20 



Hi Steve! There is that as well, but my good old fashioned gut instincts (not terribly scientific, I know) and the way Euro4 is looking, tonight's stuff does look like wanting to bypass off to our west, just like last night. I suspect West Kent may get a good display out of it. But it is an ongoing complex set up . . . So, who knows. I have been caught out before.

EDIT: Cor, the iPad is a bit rubbish for handling quotes in threads, but then again, I am outside at the front garden with the machine in hand. [sn_bsmil]
Folkestone Harbour. 
nsrobins
18 July 2014 10:46:55
Note a level 2 from Estofex who considered a rare level 3
Big hail possible in first pulse this evening

estofex.org

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gusty
18 July 2014 10:54:45

Note a level 2 from Estofex who considered a rare level 3
Big hail possible in first pulse this evening

estofex.org

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Indeed Neil, it was scaled back to a Level 2 due to the uncertainty of them being elevated rather than surface based. Whatever happens these storms will be spectacular.


Hi Ian..I'm guessing the Euro4 model is picking up strong capping immediately to the east of the plume, hence the reason for the potential no show here in East Kent.


My gut instinct tells me that it will be good..who knows we may even end up dry but with an incredible nightime display just to our west !


Hi Jonesy..its looking like a 10-11pm onwards event based on the output I'm seeing.



Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



POD
  • POD
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2014 11:05:10

Meto Amber warnings out now.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html


Pat, Crawley Down, West Sussex.
Alun
  • Alun
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2014 11:08:38

Radio Kent had an interview with a lady from Tunbridge Wells who was "struck by lightning" whilst videoing the first storm, she still sounded a bit hyper .


Kent online has an article about last night including a number of photos, timelapse videos and her first hand footage courtesy of youtube... "Bring it on???"


Alun,
Home: Strood, Rochester, Kent - 69M ASL
Work: Tunstall, Sittingbourne, Kent - 71M ASL
Jonesy
18 July 2014 11:30:43


Note a level 2 from Estofex who considered a rare level 3
Big hail possible in first pulse this evening

estofex.org

Originally Posted by: Gusty 


 


Hi Jonesy..its looking like a 10-11pm onwards event based on the output I'm seeing.



Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


That would be good if so, will catch it on my way home from Rochester Castle as going to see UB40.


Yikes just thought if it was earlier the open air show may of been cancelled


 


 


Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
DeeDee
18 July 2014 11:30:59
Just broken up from school: had another storm at 9.30am this morning.
Currently soaring temps and very humid

Harpenden, Herts.
vince
18 July 2014 11:38:13

Note a level 2 from Estofex who considered a rare level 3
Big hail possible in first pulse this evening

estofex.org

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


could they still upgrade this to a level 3 Neil ? a PDS coming up i fear , if this comes off i will satisfty us all for the next 15 years

Stormchaser
18 July 2014 12:49:30

Last night I was restricted to a relatively low resolution of footage due to my SD card giving up unexpectedly, but tonight, after a very demanding trip on the bike to PC World, I'm fully ready to try and capture some full-HD footage of the storms 


I'll admit to being a little afraid of sod's law at this point 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Stormchaser
18 July 2014 12:51:32

Oh and about that Estofex forecast - it seems to have the highest risk zone to the east of where all the latest model output develops the most intense activity.


Unless they know an extra special something, the forecast ought to be revised this afternoon.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
P+ve Giant
18 July 2014 12:56:02

Just one rumble for breakfast up here! A few very short and sharp showers early this morning with very large raindrops as the trough line moved through.


John.
soperman
18 July 2014 13:00:45

Well if the starter's anything to go by, the main course should be Michelin star.


Fresh storms already arrived from Biscay into SW France.


I just love the fact that after all this we get a long summer period with evening warmth.  I seem to recall that most times, these storms break a hot spell and we are left with very much cooler waether.


Gusty
18 July 2014 13:03:08


Well if the starter's anything to go by, the main course should be Michelin star.


Fresh storms already arrived from Biscay into SW France.


I just love the fact that after all this we get a long summer period with evening warmth.  I seem to recall that most times, these storms break a hot spell and we are left with very much cooler waether.



Originally Posted by: soperman 


Indeed, its unusual for an extended spell of very warm / hot and settled weather to start with a bang !


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Arcus
18 July 2014 13:29:22
LIs of -3 to -10 cover much of England tomorrow pm according to NMM, with over 3,000 j/kg CAPE. Plenty of fizz in the bottle then.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
vince
18 July 2014 13:43:40

LIs of -3 to -10 cover much of England tomorrow pm according to NMM, with over 3,000 j/kg CAPE. Plenty of fizz in the bottle then.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


yep and Southern UK inserts the menthos mint into said fizzy bottle 

Gavin P
18 July 2014 13:50:19

Here's my latest take on the storms:


http://www.gavsweathervids.com/stormwatch.html


Obviously tonight/tomorrow morning getting the focus right now, but after a drier spell for a few hours tomorrow afternoon/evening could turn disruptively stormy as again! 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
BYF1
  • BYF1
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2014 15:10:59
From Meto

"Here is an update for the weather today and over the weekend.

We are now under the influence of a very warm, moist plume of air which is likely to give us the hottest day of the year so far. It will be mainly fine and dry this afternoon with temperatures rising to high 20s or low 30s. A Heat wave Level 2 has been issued for Friday and Saturday.

Tonight and tomorrow remains our main concern. As we move into this evening we will see heavy, thundery showers developing. These showers will move north during the night, generally clearing in the morning. The showers could be torrential at times and accompanied by frequent lightning, large hail and strong gusty winds leading to significant impacts in places. We could see 10-20 mm of rain quite widely overnight with some places seeing 30-40 mm. It is possible that in particularly heavy showers some places could see 50-75 mm in 3 hours, 30 mm or more in an hour.

When this first area of showers has cleared there will be a dry period with good sunny spells during the morning but as the temperatures rise further heavy showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. These showers are expected to clear during the evening to leave a rather cloudy but dry night.

Confidence: There is still some uncertainty about the exact location of the heaviest showers. Most of the country will see heavy showers and thunderstorms at times. The forecast currently suggests that the areas at greater risk from more extensive heavy showers and thunderstorms overnight are the Thames Valley, Surrey, West Sussex and Hampshire & Isle of Wight. This does not mean that areas further east will not see some showers but they do not seem to be as widespread. This will need to be watched carefully and I would recommend keeping an eye on Hazard Manager to see where the heaviest showers are developing.

Warnings: The Met Office will be upgrading the warning soon to an Amber RAIN Warning (Medium Likelihood of Medium Impacts) covering the areas at highest risk from the heavy showers, namely the Thames Valley, Surrey, West Sussex, Hampshire & Isle of Wight. They will also updating the Yellow RAIN Warning (Low Likelihood of Medium Impacts) to cover the rest of the area, namely East Sussex and Kent. Impacts could include surface water flooding, flooding on fast responding urban catchments, power outages due to lightning strikes as well as poor driving conditions, transport issues and problems for outside events.

Sunday will still be very warm and quite humid with isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms developing during the day, gradually clearing during the evening. Monday and Tuesday look like being mainly fine and dry with variable amounts of cloud although isolated showers are still possible. Remaining warm or very warm."

North downs, near Folkestone, 177m asl.
Whether Idle
18 July 2014 15:22:10


Well if the starter's anything to go by, the main course should be Michelin star.


Fresh storms already arrived from Biscay into SW France.


I just love the fact that after all this we get a long summer period with evening warmth.  I seem to recall that most times, these storms break a hot spell and we are left with very much cooler waether.



Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Indeed, its unusual for an extended spell of very warm / hot and settled weather to start with a bang !

Originally Posted by: soperman 



Check out the monster storms on the satellite and meteox radar as they barrel north and intensify. Gonna be a beast of a night methinks!
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
DeeDee
18 July 2014 16:08:18
A reminder of a great world live lightning map

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en 

You can also get an app. Shows live lightning live everywhere: as usual at this time of day Eastern Europe getting more than their lot!

Harpenden, Herts.
Arcus
18 July 2014 16:47:06
Off we go again over N.France and into the Channel. Some pretty rapid development, and a fair amount of lightning.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Medlock Vale Weather
18 July 2014 16:54:31

If this pulls off as shown there could be some large hail mixed within the dark red area 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014071806/nmmuk-1-20-0.png?18-13


NE England may get hammered too


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/nmmuk-1-27-0.png?18-13


Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
Osprey
18 July 2014 16:59:56

Off we go again over N.France and into the Channel. Some pretty rapid development, and a fair amount of lightning.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Lightning is really kicking off over there


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
nickl
18 July 2014 17:09:54

first clump of storms into the s of the uk within 90 mins i reckon.

Arcus
18 July 2014 17:16:27


first clump of storms into the s of the uk within 90 mins i reckon.


Originally Posted by: nickl 


Yes, whilst it looks like they are currently heading NNE I would expect them to turn more to the N as they progress. Plus more development of new storms looks likely further W over the southern Channel.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl

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