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Quantum
18 July 2014 19:29:06

Out of sheer morbid curiosity, and I'm fairly sure I know the answer, but has the UKMO ever issued a tornado warning for anywhere in the UK?


No. Probably?

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


I don't know, but they really should when EHIs are higher than 4 in northern france. 


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Bob G
18 July 2014 19:29:16


Confused, is this storm approaching the SE suppose to be the main system thought to be distributing storms across more western/central areas early tomorow morning?


 


Originally Posted by: Mandrake 


This is the Overture, the fat lady is still limbering up

Arcus
18 July 2014 19:29:38


Confused, is this storm approaching the SE suppose to be the main system thought to be distributing storms across more western/central areas early tomorow morning?


 


Originally Posted by: Mandrake 


If you watch only the radar then you'd be excused for thinking things are pushing NNE. But the track of storm generation is to the north (if not NNW) of the main system, so I would not be surpised to see storms firing to the west of the main system, and the London area very much in the firing line.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Mandrake
18 July 2014 19:32:23



Confused, is this storm approaching the SE suppose to be the main system thought to be distributing storms across more western/central areas early tomorow morning?


 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


If you watch only the radar then you'd be excused for thinking things are pushing NNE. But the track of storm generation is to the north (if not NNW) of the main system, so I would not be surpised to see storms firing to the west of the main system, and the London area very much in the firing line.


Originally Posted by: Mandrake 


 


Ah I see, makes sense as I was indeed concluding from radar movement. Hopefully a fascinating period of weather coming up for many  

Quantum
18 July 2014 19:32:29



Confused, is this storm approaching the SE suppose to be the main system thought to be distributing storms across more western/central areas early tomorow morning?


 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


If you watch only the radar then you'd be excused for thinking things are pushing NNE. But the track of storm generation is to the north (if not NNW) of the main system, so I would not be surpised to see storms firing to the west of the main system, and the London area very much in the firing line.


Originally Posted by: Mandrake 


This is what I'm really worried about, the western flank of the storm is the most likely place where supercells could develop.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
warrenb
18 July 2014 19:36:35
It is like night here now, and the thunder is getting louder
Tonbridge 45m 
POD
  • POD
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2014 19:38:22

It is like night here now, and the thunder is getting louder

Originally Posted by: warrenb 



similar here, no rain yet though.

Pat, Crawley Down, West Sussex.
Matty H
18 July 2014 19:39:09

Out of sheer morbid curiosity, and I'm fairly sure I know the answer, but has the UKMO ever issued a tornado warning for anywhere in the UK?


No. Probably?

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I don't know, but they really should when EHIs are higher than 4 in northern france. 


 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



I disagree. Firing out a warning like that in the UK would get enormous media coverage and cause panic and confusion amongst people that don't follow the weather to the extent we do.
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Matty H
18 July 2014 19:40:00
Not to mention the ravaging the MetO would then get if two schools and a hospital weren't destroyed by an F5
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
warrenb
18 July 2014 19:41:40
First flash of lightning, but so high based, no thunder at all
Tonbridge 45m 
Jive Buddy
18 July 2014 19:42:20

It is like night here now, and the thunder is getting louder

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


 


Sky has gone an incredible colour here - not black, but very evil looking to the E/S/&W. Air is absolutely still, but not a single rumble of thunder heard yet (mind you, we are infested with twats with their f888ed up exhausts here, so it's difficult to hear much above them anyway)

It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
Quantum
18 July 2014 19:44:31

Not to mention the ravaging the MetO would then get if two schools and a hospital weren't destroyed by an F5

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


But what if the converse happens. Yes its unlikely, but still.


http://www.estofex.org/  seems to be concerned about the possibility of tornadoes in E england


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
SleepyJean
18 July 2014 19:45:41
There is dark cloud with lightning to the east of me. I'm halfway between Guildford and Dorking in Surrey, so a lot further inland than other reports. I don't know how far away it is to the east, though. Can't hear any thunder, and even the dog can't hear it (she usually starts going loco when she hears it, which is well before we are able to!).
Gomshall, Surrey, 97m asl
forestedge
18 July 2014 19:46:00

Sky has cleared here over the last hour with all the action happening further east. Cannot complain after last nights fantastic lightning display! Temp still around 21c.


Still expecting storms later tonight with developments over Western France looking interesting

Roger
Ashurst Bridge (New Forest)
9m ASL
https://www.newforestweather.co.uk 
stormwatcher
18 July 2014 19:47:59

Do we have anyone in Eastbourne/Hastings area? Would be nice to know what's actually occurring in the real world.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


hi Arcus  well i live in seaford which is 10 miles away from eastbourne well the storm is very inpressive indeed . i seen 5  fork lightling   in a second no joke and sheet lightling aswell with fork lightling. also heavy rain but in only last 10 mins .  i got a webcam but not sure  how to broadcast it on here . that will  be great . 

nickl
18 July 2014 19:48:11

overall push of the MCS is ssw/nne  - currently the western extent on a line to push through central london. the next batch of storms now pushing  nne out of bordeaux seem to be on a similar track to this initial MCS. all forecasts had the flow of storms generally s/n with a trend to be se/nw. i guess we have to wait and see if they begin to drift onto a more northerly setting.


 

WanderingLonelyAsACumulonimbusIncus
18 July 2014 19:48:21

Not to mention the ravaging the MetO would then get if two schools and a hospital weren't destroyed by an F5

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Heaven forbid!

Malcolm UserPostedImage
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE
Arcus
18 July 2014 19:52:49


Do we have anyone in Eastbourne/Hastings area? Would be nice to know what's actually occurring in the real world.

Originally Posted by: stormwatcher 


 


hi Arcus  well i live in seaford which is 10 miles away from eastbourne well the storm is very inpressive indeed . i seen 5  fork lightling   in a second no joke and sheet lightling aswell with fork lightling. also heavy rain but in only last 10 mins .  i got a webcam but not sure  how to broadcast it on here . that will  be great . 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Thanks Stormwatcher. Looks impressive on a laptop, very jealous not to be able to see it in the flesh.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Matty H
18 July 2014 19:54:12

Not to mention the ravaging the MetO would then get if two schools and a hospital weren't destroyed by an F5

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


But what if the converse happens. Yes its unlikely, but still.


http://www.estofex.org/  seems to be concerned about the possibility of tornadoes in E england


 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



You've already answered the whole thing by highlighting it as unlikely. Any tornado is unlikely here. It's not like the US plain-spawned efforts where cold and hot air masses collide over the Rockies. A unique world set up that turns tornado chances from unlikely to very likely in certain circumstances regularly through any given year there.
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Sinky1970
18 July 2014 19:55:56
Looks to me that these storms are tracking more NNE at the moment not Northerly and may hit mainly the eastern half of the country.
Nordic Snowman
18 July 2014 19:56:38


overall push of the MCS is ssw/nne  - currently the western extent on a line to push through central london. the next batch of storms now pushing  nne out of bordeaux seem to be on a similar track to this initial MCS. all forecasts had the flow of storms generally s/n with a trend to be se/nw. i guess we have to wait and see if they begin to drift onto a more northerly setting.


 


Originally Posted by: nickl 


Indeed. Many will miss out unless it goes more S-N.

Bjorli, Norway

Website 
warrenb
18 July 2014 19:57:22
Got hail falling here now. Plenty of lightning too.
Tonbridge 45m 
doctormog
18 July 2014 19:58:30
"The most intense storms will likely occur in across far NW France in vicinity of a prexisting convergence zone (near a line from just south of Rouen to Lille). Given the strong CAPE, very large hail will be possible. The storms may well develop into a bow-echo capable of producing gusts > 32 m/s. A threat of tornadoes will exist if a storm can interact directly with the sea-breeze front.

I am currently in Arras which is essentially exactly on the "line" mentioned in the above post from ESTOFEX. It really is very warm and humid (still just below 30°C currently at nearly 10pm) and although now cloudy there is not much sign of storm activity...yet.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Alun
  • Alun
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2014 20:03:28
Rumbling now in Medway, hopefully the Rochester Castle Garden proms won't be affected to badly as they're being held in a more elevated position and outside. UB40 are playing.

Suddenly very dark now!
Alun,
Home: Strood, Rochester, Kent - 69M ASL
Work: Tunstall, Sittingbourne, Kent - 71M ASL
Arcus
18 July 2014 20:05:30



overall push of the MCS is ssw/nne  - currently the western extent on a line to push through central london. the next batch of storms now pushing  nne out of bordeaux seem to be on a similar track to this initial MCS. all forecasts had the flow of storms generally s/n with a trend to be se/nw. i guess we have to wait and see if they begin to drift onto a more northerly setting.


 


Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


Indeed. Many will miss out unless it goes more S-N.


Originally Posted by: nickl 


You're maybe looking at what's currently on a radar rather than what might develop. I would be surprised if we didn't see the Channel spring into life later on. The usual cavaets apply - not everywhere will get something tonight, but there's a long ways to go yet. 

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl

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