theweatheroutlook

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Quantum
18 July 2014 20:07:51

Well I'm currently using the netweather radar, and the rates have died down somewhat (it won't be visible anywhere else though as the scales are completely inadequate), so we are now looking at rates in the hundreds rather than >200. Brian Gaze, if you are about, how do you get acsess to the metoffice raw data?


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Nordic Snowman
18 July 2014 20:11:14




overall push of the MCS is ssw/nne  - currently the western extent on a line to push through central london. the next batch of storms now pushing  nne out of bordeaux seem to be on a similar track to this initial MCS. all forecasts had the flow of storms generally s/n with a trend to be se/nw. i guess we have to wait and see if they begin to drift onto a more northerly setting.


 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Indeed. Many will miss out unless it goes more S-N.


Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


You're maybe looking at what's currently on a radar rather than what might develop. I would be surprised if we didn't see the Channel spring into life later on. The usual cavaets apply - not everywhere will get something tonight, but there's a long ways to go yet. 


Originally Posted by: nickl 


Yes - no thunder expert at all and all I go on is the radar tbh. I'm sure sparks will be flying later...

Bjorli, Norway

Website 
Jive Buddy
18 July 2014 20:13:02

Things have just gone absolutely mental here in the last 5 mins! It is truely stunning, yet not one flash/rumble/raindrop. We had what looked like a shelf cloud come over us, and as it passed overhead, the wind went from zero to f*** knows what im a split second. You could here it coming like a train! I stood in it for a few mins, watching debris swirling around above my head ( no sign of rotation/funnel though). This is one of the most remarkable weather events I've ever witnssed!

It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
Arcus
18 July 2014 20:14:34


Things have just gone absolutely mental here in the last 5 mins! It is truely stunning, yet not one flash/rumble/raindrop. We had what looked like a shelf cloud come over us, and as it passed overhead, the wind went from zero to f*** knows what im a split second. You could here it coming like a train! I stood in it for a few mins, watching debris swirling around above my head ( no sign of rotation/funnel though). This is one of the most remarkable weather events I've ever witnssed!


Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 


Sounds like a gust front Mr. Budds. 

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Jive Buddy
18 July 2014 20:14:44

Bloody hell, it's like a winter gale out there! 

It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
warrenb
18 July 2014 20:16:10
We are right on the western fringe
Tonbridge 45m 
Quantum
18 July 2014 20:16:26

Looks like the reall threat could be further to the NE, perhaps a little NE of london, even E anglia.


http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_srh_eur3.png


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Arcus
18 July 2014 20:20:38


Looks like the reall threat could be further to the NE, perhaps a little NE of london, even E anglia.


http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_srh_eur3.png


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Not really developing on the western side as it looked like doing an hour ago, so yes grazing E London as it stands.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Jive Buddy
18 July 2014 20:21:02



Things have just gone absolutely mental here in the last 5 mins! It is truely stunning, yet not one flash/rumble/raindrop. We had what looked like a shelf cloud come over us, and as it passed overhead, the wind went from zero to f*ck knows what im a split second. You could here it coming like a train! I stood in it for a few mins, watching debris swirling around above my head ( no sign of rotation/funnel though). This is one of the most remarkable weather events I've ever witnssed!


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Sounds like a gust front Mr. Budds. 


Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 


That's what I was thinking as it started,but the way it was swirling around was quite eerie. First flashes of lightning to the South now.

It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
Quantum
18 July 2014 20:21:45



Looks like the reall threat could be further to the NE, perhaps a little NE of london, even E anglia.


http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_srh_eur3.png


 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Not really developing on the western side as it looked like doing an hour ago, so yes grazing E London as it stands.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I think it will still be on the western side where the severest activity will be, but I suspect the worst to come will be in a couple of hours on the back edge.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Dougie
18 July 2014 20:25:41

Lots of thunder rumbling around. The main body of the storm seems to be approaching Maidstone and will carry on through the Medway towns and on into Essex.


This is all to the East of me, but although noisy, no rain yet.

Ha'way the lads
warrenb
18 July 2014 20:27:41
I am right on the western edge of it here. Flashing away to the east with the occasional flash to the west
Tonbridge 45m 
Jive Buddy
18 July 2014 20:33:01

Apart from the wind, not a great deal of activity here now. A few distant flashes, that's it! Have some nice pics of the cloud  I mentioned though, I think.


Edit: And as I hit 'post', the first decent rumble of thunder 

It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
Quantum
18 July 2014 20:33:15

I can see a convergence line forming.



I suspect somewhere on that line will see the severest weather today, and probably the SE part. 


Notice also the large directional windsheer; look at the red and black lines. If I had to make a stab in the dark, then I would say this is where we are most likely to get funnels tonight.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
DeeDee
18 July 2014 20:34:29
I see a few new cells popping up Aylesbury/Oxford way
I am on that convergence line
Heres hoping
Very strange skies here
Harpenden, Herts.
Arcus
18 July 2014 20:36:26



Looks like the reall threat could be further to the NE, perhaps a little NE of london, even E anglia.


http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_srh_eur3.png


 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Not really developing on the western side as it looked like doing an hour ago, so yes grazing E London as it stands.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Well maybe not.. interesting times ahead tonight.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Alun
  • Alun
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2014 20:39:26
I took a video of the start here but missed the waves of clouds ahead of the cells, a most unusual sight and one that I don't think I've ever seen before, it absolutely tore through!
Flashes every few seconds, most intense that I remember in around 16 years.
Alun,
Home: Strood, Rochester, Kent - 69M ASL
Work: Tunstall, Sittingbourne, Kent - 71M ASL
Jive Buddy
18 July 2014 20:40:22

Pictures and videos already appearing on Facebook now - you can see why I was so excited by it ;-)

It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
Jonesy
18 July 2014 20:44:16
Biggest storm I have seen in years, watching the huge cell approach during sunset was amazing,.the speed also 😮
Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
18 July 2014 20:53:20
Associated Heavy Storm Side Clouds Forest Gate E London Area - CC and CG's plenty every 7 secs large CG's some booming humming Distant Thunder CG and CC lightning - Large Scattered Heavy Raindrops falling- patches of them - Squally Breezy Gusty winds and No Hail - Thunderstorm over Romford and Becton According to my views.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Charmhills
18 July 2014 21:06:15

New cells in the south Midlands now producing lighting moving northwards to.


Cloud is also increasing here form the south with a strong electrical smell in the atmosphere.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Arcus
18 July 2014 21:08:59
Yep, signs of new cells firing to the north-west of that MCS.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
DeeDee
18 July 2014 21:09:19
Completely out of the blue, a massive CG and runble of thunder !!!!!!
Harpenden, Herts.
Bob G
18 July 2014 21:10:34


New cells in the south Midlands now producing lighting moving northwards to.


Cloud is also increasing here form the south with a strong electoral smell in the atmosphere.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Would that be due to a reshuffle?

DeeDee
18 July 2014 21:12:25

I can see a convergence line forming.



I suspect somewhere on that line will see the severest weather today, and probably the SE part. 


Notice also the large directional windsheer; look at the red and black lines. If I had to make a stab in the dark, then I would say this is where we are most likely to get funnels tonight.


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Radar showing the convergence perfectly 😁
Harpenden, Herts.

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