23c is fine, 29c + is plain stupid , now -10 is just fine

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SATURDAY JULY 19TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A very thundery Southerly flow over the UK in association with a complex Low pressure area to the South and SW of the UK will move slowly NE across the UK.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Warm conditions for much of the time. Some thundery showers at times in the South.

GFS The GFS operational today shows pressure rising across the UK from both the SW and NE with a 'col' area forming across the UK for a time. This means light winds, a lot of dry weather but with a lesser risk than of late but still very real risk of thundery showers at times especially in the South. It will stay warm and quite humid generally. Low pressure is then shown to move across from the West through Week 2 bringing fresher and cooler conditions with rain at times later in the period. The Ensemble pack indicate the operational run described above is a fair representation of how the general trend of events should take place although day to day synoptics differ.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a large High over Northern Scandinavia through the middle part of next week with a ridge extended back across the British Isles. This is insufficiently strong enough over Southern Britain to prevent the risk of thundery showers at times from midweek following a brief lull in these early in the week.

GEM The GEM operational maintains the status quo that will be set up early in the week with High pressure to the NE extending a tenuous ridge down across the British Isles which becomes broken down at times by shallow pools of cold upper air across the South increasing the risk of thundery showers or storms to break out at times across the South in particular. There will be plenty of fine, dry and warm conditions too.

NAVGEM NAVGEM also has High pressure to the NE and later close to the North of the UK with fine and warm weather the dominant feature with the risk of a few thundery showers close to the South coast at times.

ECM The ECM operational shares the basic theme of the others with warm weather largely continuing with plenty of fine weather and the odd thundery shower at times. Through the second half of the run a Low pressure cell moves across from the West with increasing amounts of showery weather again later, some thundery.

MY THOUGHTS  It looks like the UK will continue to see plenty of warm weather around and about throughout the period. However, the South in particular always look at risk of some thundery conditions at times though not to the extent of currently. Longer term the chance of a slightly more Atlantic feed of weather more generally across the UK is hinted at with more general rain or thundery showers for all should it verify.

Thank you for the output Martin.

GFS 18z looking hot virtually from beginning to end!

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SUNDAY JULY 20TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Pressure is rising across the UK today as a ridge of High pressure gradually builds across from the West.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Plenty of fine weather with scattered and occasional thundery showers.

GFS The GFS operational shows the paaatern of High pressure to the NE and SW giving rise to slack pressure gradients over the UK this week with a lot of fine and very warm air encased over the UK. Thundery Low pressure remains close to the SE at times and this could feed some thundery weather back across the South at times. Longer term the High to the NE declines and Low pressure eventually makes it across the UK from the West with the risk of more widespread rain and showers right at the end of the period. The Ensembles support this theme well this morning with a more pronounced Atlantic Low pressure area bringing lower temperatures and rainfall to many in Week 2 as it drifts in from the West.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure to the NE declining as we move towards next weekend with a ridge from an Azores High slipping across the UK from the West. Scattered heavy showers over the South late in the week should fade as fine weather affects most parts next weekend when it will stay warm.

GEM The GEM operational looks largely fine and settled this morning as High pressure to the NE affects many areas this week and is replaced by a large High to the West and eventually over the UK in the second portion of the run. All this leads into a fine and very warm spell with plenty of sunshine and just the chance of a few thundery showers over the South at the point of transition between the High to the NE and the one to the West.

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a belt of  High pressure stretching from Scandinavia to a point West of the UK. Lower pressure over NW Europe remains close enough at time to give rise to the risk of thundery showers across the South later this week.

ECM The ECM operational is largely similar to the above with the risk of thundery showers from slacker pressure on the Southern periphery of the belt of High pressure over the North remaining up until next weekend. The ridge slips South then with a decent weekend for many with a change to Atlantic showery Low pressure by Day 10 rolling in from the West.

MY THOUGHTS  The generally warm weather across the UK is here to stay for some considerable time yet as a Scandinavian Anticyclone becomes the major player on the UK weather though this week. Light winds and good sunny spells are the main factors most areas will experience this week with the threat of some thundery showers towards the South at times later on. Longer term there is no definitive changes likely at first though both ECM and GFS including it's ensembles do show a deterioration in conditions under advancing Atlantic Low pressure into the UK through the latter stages of Week 2. So piecing the jigsaw together the weather will be set fair for most for some considerable time with high temperatures and humidity at times, especially over the South of the UK where showers and thunderstorms remain a strong risk at times. On balance though the weather patterns suggest our warm summer remains intact over most of the output timespan this morning.

Thanks as always GIBBY. Definitely can't grumble with current prospects! 

Given the utter rubbish summers we had each year from 2007 up to & including 2012, the last year of that sequence especially, IMO we deserve at least the same number of good summers in a row to atone for those woeful ones.

Im lovin it.

Sounds OK to me.

The balance of power between the block to the NE and the ridge from the Azores remains undecided this morning, with models differing on the extent of the continental flow across the UK. Despite this, the range of temperatures on offer looks similar between all of the models out to Saturday, that being mid to high 20's widely with 30's possible in the far south at times.

Then there are some signs of LP development to our south or southwest by day 9 or 10, coupled with HP trying to build back to our NE after a brief decline there.

A sense of deja vu is at hand there 

Which means????

Looks like remaining settled, very warm if not locally hot but with a risk of some thundery showers later on in the week for the south especially.

Not a bad July so far is it.

Exactly and when you think how good June was - this is turning out to be a very good summer. I won't say any more because 1. I don't want to go OT and 2. I don't want to put the kiss of death on it either.

Great outputs  is what is wanted and we get them here...

Not liking the GFS this morning - if the 6z comes off, my Devon break next weekend would be a washout.

That's why I'm hoping the ECM is right - dry & warm