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Matty H
19 July 2014 09:27:38


If you were going to go storm chasing in the UK, where would you head to today?


Originally Posted by: Jonesy 


To the Pub  .... ended up staying in there alot longer than expected yesterday

Originally Posted by: jamesthemonkeh 



All of this answer is correct.
The Beast from the East
19 July 2014 09:44:07

Non event here so far. Only a splattering of rain overnight which has nearly dried out.


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Charmhills
19 July 2014 09:51:01

Light rain but very humid and sticky.


I wouldn't be surprised to see big storms develop this afternoon as the sun breaks though.


Heavy bursts of rain in the early hours.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Jive Buddy
19 July 2014 10:09:18


If you were going to go storm chasing in the UK, where would you head to today?


Originally Posted by: jamesthemonkeh 


Wherever Charmhills is


It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
Gooner
19 July 2014 10:10:34

very disappointing , seems Thursday night was the main event IMBY


The odd rumble ( not fumble )last night and at 04:00 but no great shakes, seems to have been to the West and East of us


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Sinky1970
19 July 2014 10:12:43
No storm here in Wolves last night, just some distant rumbles and occasional burst of heavy rain.
moomin75
19 July 2014 10:27:42

very disappointing , seems Thursday night was the main event IMBY


The odd rumble ( not fumble )last night and at 04:00 but no great shakes, seems to have been to the West and East of us

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Totally agree Marcus. It was as bad as anything we have seen in winter when waiting for snow.
I appreciate its difficult to nail down things like this but have to say the forecasters didn't cover themselves in glory last night.
On live forecasts they only needed to look at the radar to see that the storms were not going to be as widespread as they initially said. Very poor forecast in my view.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
BYF1
  • BYF1
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2014 10:30:05


If you were going to go storm chasing in the UK, where would you head to today?


Originally Posted by: jamesthemonkeh 


 


Dorset/Solent area looking quite good...with storms building over France.


North downs, near Folkestone, 177m asl.
Charmhills
19 July 2014 10:33:07

Heavy showery rain here.


The rain drops are huge indicating a convective influence.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
P+ve Giant
19 July 2014 10:34:08

Very heavy showery rain here atm. Bright flashes and rumbles seen last night from over 20 miles away An active storm moved and developed overhead around 2.30am with associated powerful cg's from the high cloud-base, instantaneous thunder from these for a time. Frequent lightning at times overnight - a flash every few seconds. I eventually called it a day at around 4am with still some distant flashes and rumbles from the north. Then got rudely awakened at breakfast time by a big rumble .. I was expecting that!


John.
Arcus
19 July 2014 10:38:33
MetO have updated their warnings, and at the same time they haven't. Amber area remains as per yesterday.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Charmhills
19 July 2014 10:48:36

Dark with heavy to very heavy rain here now.


Develops taking my to my S/SE.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Mandrake
19 July 2014 10:49:42


very disappointing , seems Thursday night was the main event IMBY


The odd rumble ( not fumble )last night and at 04:00 but no great shakes, seems to have been to the West and East of us


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I'm not sure if I was a bit late checking the warnings/risk areas, but Thursday night into Friday morning turned out much better than I expected for here also. We did have some frequent lightning last night, however the majority of the lightning did seem to be further to my west, so somewhere must of done well.


The best storm in this area yet from a personal perspective was the one on Friday 13th June, which I will remember for a long time. Now that was a good storm 

Charmhills
19 July 2014 10:53:44

Areas of heavy, thundery showers will continue to move northwards across England and Wales today. Not everywhere within the warning area will see thunderstorms, and indeed some spells of warm sunshine are expected at times. However, where thunderstorms do form, some torrential downpours are likely with frequent lightning, large hail and locally strong gusts. Significant flooding is possible where these do occur from surface water as well as from small, fast-responding watercourses.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html


The bits highlighted in bold.


 


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
KevBrads1
19 July 2014 10:53:58
Photo taken by Amy McDonald down the road from me.

http://mobile.twitter.com/_Amy_Woodward/status/490328799721299968/photo/1 
MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
JimC
  • JimC
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2014 10:56:17

Shame some of you missed out on the storms but not everyone in the amber warning area was going to get them and the meto said as much, always hit and miss these events. This area on the other hand has had more than it's fair share, I reckon I would have to go back to the Eighties to find a time where I'd sat up all night watching thunder storms roll by, and looking at the oncoming weather weather for later it's not finished with us yet. 


Heavy rain has started as I type and I can hear more thunder.

nsrobins
19 July 2014 11:00:24


Areas of heavy, thundery showers will continue to move northwards across England and Wales today. Not everywhere within the warning area will see thunderstorms, and indeed some spells of warm sunshine are expected at times. However, where thunderstorms do form, some torrential downpours are likely with frequent lightning, large hail and locally strong gusts. Significant flooding is possible where these do occur from surface water as well as from small, fast-responding watercourses.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html


The bits highlighted in bold.


 


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Well highlighted Duane. Some people still need to get a grip. This a forum for weather enthusiasts but sometimes I think 'enthusiast' obviously doesn't include anyone with even a basic understanding of convective systems, and the warnings that describe their potential impact.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
ozone_aurora
19 July 2014 11:00:57

Had a lively thunderstorm here early this morning, with plenty of lightnings, and for 1 moment, strong winds lasting a few minutes.

Stormchaser
19 July 2014 11:02:51

Time to play the thunderstorm guessing game...


The breakup of cloud over the south from around Bournemouth eastward is still going, and producing some very hot feeling sunshine in places. This may be a result of sunshine 'burning' through the cloud, or descending air from aloft related to the earlier storm systems, or most likely a mixture of both.


A region of convergence continues to bring heavy, thundery rain with embedded thunderstorms along the western flank of this clearing zone - a line running north from the coastal stretch from Weymouth to Poole has been getting hammered for hours on end, including Mattyland judging by his reports...


 


Storms continue to track North from France and are now starting the channel crossing. An area aiming for the Isle of Wight and Portsmouth looks particularly energetic, and when that reaches land again and encounters a low-level environment heated thanks to those breaks in the cloud, things could get quite explosive... though as always, nothing guaranteed.


Behind those is another area of cloud breaks, and to the east of them is a quite large clear zone heading for the far SE. These look to allow for some afternoon solar input provided storms don't initiate within them before they arrive (models don't see that happening but you know how it is!), and I believe GFS is seeing this, as it shows a marked temperature rise in many areas between noon and 3pm, away from the area NE of London where it seems to have predicted too much heating during the morning - Gravesend would be hitting 28*C by now if it was correct, which looks to be about 4*C too high. I reckon the high 20's temperatures will instead be achieved in the coming 3 hours instead as that clear zone moves over.


It's this afternoon heating that looks to set the stage for the most intense homegrown storms, as GFS shows CAPE peaking between 3pm and 6pm.


The big question then is whether the convective inhibition associated with those clear pockets is overcome by that surface heating. If yes, kaboom, if no, a fine, very warm but relatively quiet late afternoon period could unfold.


 


Phew. Let's see how that goes 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Medlock Vale Weather
19 July 2014 11:06:05

Had not just 1 but a few loud thunderstorms overnight, which woke us up at about 2:30 then they were still going till it were light. Rather tired now but worth it


Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
Charmhills
19 July 2014 11:07:19

Torrential downpour!


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Jive Buddy
19 July 2014 11:08:00


Time to play the thunderstorm guessing game...


The breakup of cloud over the south from around Bournemouth eastward is still going, and producing some very hot feeling sunshine in places. This may be a result of sunshine 'burning' through the cloud, or descending air from aloft related to the earlier storm systems, or most likely a mixture of both.


A region of convergence continues to bring heavy, thundery rain with embedded thunderstorms along the western flank of this clearing zone - a line running north from the coastal stretch from Weymouth to Poole has been getting hammered for hours on end, including Mattyland judging by his reports...


 


Storms continue to track North from France and are now starting the channel crossing. An area aiming for the Isle of Wight and Portsmouth looks particularly energetic, and when that reaches land again and encounters a low-level environment heated thanks to those breaks in the cloud, things could get quite explosive... though as always, nothing guaranteed.


Behind those is another area of cloud breaks, and to the east of them is a quite large clear zone heading for the far SE. These look to allow for some afternoon solar input provided storms don't initiate within them before they arrive (models don't see that happening but you know how it is!), and I believe GFS is seeing this, as it shows a marked temperature rise in many areas between noon and 3pm, away from the area NE of London where it seems to have predicted too much heating during the morning - Gravesend would be hitting 28*C by now if it was correct, which looks to be about 4*C too high. I reckon the high 20's temperatures will instead be achieved in the coming 3 hours instead as that clear zone moves over.


It's this afternoon heating that looks to set the stage for the most intense homegrown storms, as GFS shows CAPE peaking between 3pm and 6pm.


The big question then is whether the convective inhibition associated with those clear pockets is overcome by that surface heating. If yes, kaboom, if no, a fine, very warm but relatively quiet late afternoon period could unfold.


 


Phew. Let's see how that goes 


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Nice analysis there SC - top work!


It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
Arcus
19 July 2014 11:13:54
Cloud breaks in Cambs/Lincs encouraging homegrown storms to fire up now.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Stormchaser
19 July 2014 11:15:33

Thanks Jive Buddy 


 


http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/sst_anom_7000_600.png


http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/test_0_600.png


 


The SSTs make interesting viewing when thinking about those storms crossing the Channel. Generally above average, and considerably so near the coasts - up to 3*C or so - which corresponds to actual temperatures of 16-17*C in the open water and 18*C or so nearshore.


While that's not going to produce much uplift when the upper air is nearly as warm, it at least means that subsiding air supressing convection is less of an issue than normal 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
ARTzeman
19 July 2014 11:20:29

Thunder still about. Rain heavy.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

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