Hello folks,

Here's the week ahead forecast video: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html

Here's the traditional Written Thoughts: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html

The heatwave continues through next week, with all day's looking hot!

#Heatwave

EDIT:

Here's today's video update: JMA August To October Video Update: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/catchup.html

 

JFF I've put in a few charts at the end of the video fromm Huug and den Dool for Winter 14/15.

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Thanks Gavin  for the Written word..

Lots to get through today and next week..

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Phew

Cheers for that Gavin P. So that's tits up for my CET forecast.

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Cheers as always, Gavin. Looks like Spring has arrived, then.

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Thankyou Gavin .
Im liking the forecast

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Thanks guys!

Remind's me a bit of the forecasts I used to write every week during the summer of 2003 - Of course Summer 2003 has the auspicious distinction of being to blame for starting my forecasting career on this very forum!

If it hadn't been for that summer, everything else that's followed with the website and the weather video's, etc... Might not have happened!

#Fate

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Thanks gavin

Definitely looks like a classic summer

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Cheers Gav

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Thanks both.

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Hi all,

Here's today's video update: JMA August To October Video Update: 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/catchup.html

JFF I've put in a few charts at the end of the video from Huug and den Dool for Winter 14/15. 

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Thanks once again Gav, looking like the CET will take a hit over the coming months then. Far too early for making early winter guesses just yet, I got burnt badly last year after publicly backing the CFS.😊

Owing to deafness I unfortunately can't hear Gavin's commentary on these videos, so I may be talking rubbish here, but van den Dool's winter 2014/15 charts are labelled as being based on an "analogue" method. If this means "pattern matching", then this would be about the right time to produce them, so we can see whether his calculations have some merit. (If that's not what the "analogue" method implies, then forget this comment.)

Regardless of that, it's always welcome to see someone forecasting what looks like a tasty Atlantic tripole for Dec, Jan, Feb. It struck me the other day that the current prolonged spell of warmth, with high pressure always lurking somewhere to our north, might be the herald of an interesting pattern getting locked in for a long time ahead.

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Hi SFB,

I do sympathise Re. not being able to hear my video's. I'm quite hard of hearing myself, so I know how tough it can be.

Huug's analogue charts are based on sea surface temperature anomalies. 

He take's the SST's from a certain point (in this case June 2014) and compares them to past years with similar SST's. From that he projects how the weather patterns develop going forward.

I'm not all that convinced with this methodology, TBH, but Huug van den Dool works within the NOAA organisation, so one assume's there must be something in this methodology?

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Thanks for that, Gavin. That's more or less what I imagined van den Dool was doing. I'm sure he's not insisting these charts are a forecast. Looking at his website they appear to be more of an investigation, searching for analogues which might be valid.

For one thing you can view his past charts and how they compared with reality, and that's definitely not the way to go if you're in the forecasting business.

Let's just say I'm interested in what he's doing, and I just wish we lived for 800 years, rather than 80, so we'd eventually get a big enough sample perhaps to pinpoint how these SST anomalies fluctuate and what drives them.

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