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Matty H
  • Matty H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
21 July 2014 16:56:16
Thanks James 👍
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
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Charmhills
21 July 2014 16:56:59

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif


Very warm/humid and increasingly thundery Met/o 12z.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
21 July 2014 19:40:30

Nice Spring and Summer - GFS is not agreeing with UKMO at T120 and T144hrs.

A Saturday and Sunday period that turns to Low Pressure as High Pressure sends it SE wards or does it be part of NW France System and SE UK Low.

If today's 12z UKMO was true then next Sunday very warm humid with some torrential Scattered Thundery Showers some quite severe is possible.

Ahem Friday and Saturday this week/ Weekend Thundery showers and sunny spells in SE plus South UK- High Pressure dominates to our SW and over UK esp. Scandy and West N W and Central Europe.
😀💦
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
bledur
21 July 2014 19:50:01

Certainly looking good till at maybe the middle of august apart from a few thunderstorms at times. Who would have thought we would have two consecutive good summers? Well not good if you dislike it too hot which is understandable.

Crepuscular Ray
21 July 2014 20:28:15
24 and sunny today here. Same again tomorrow. But according to the BBC we then have 8 sunless days with temps less than 18 C?
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Matty H
  • Matty H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
21 July 2014 20:40:19
Anyone else not get the ECM to load?
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
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David M Porter
21 July 2014 20:46:46

Anyone else not get the ECM to load?

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


It hasn't updated with me either, Matty. I reckon that WZ must be having technical difficulties just now.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
WanderingLonelyAsACumulonimbusIncus
21 July 2014 20:49:04


Anyone else not get the ECM to load?

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


It hasn't updated with me either, Matty. I reckon that WZ must be having technical difficulties just now.


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


https://twitter.com/RyanMaue


Behind schedule.

Malcolm UserPostedImage
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE
Matty H
  • Matty H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
21 July 2014 21:35:04
Thanks 👍
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Stormchaser
21 July 2014 22:58:03

GFS is lacking support for that trough development in situ to the NE on day 6. The other models don't have that feature and as such don't bring as much of a fresh Atlantic air incursion, in fact hardly anything on GEM run and seemingly nothing on the UKMO run.


The ECM run, now finally uploading, develops a trough to the NW on day 5 which sits halfway between Iceland and Scotland on day 6. Thankfully it's only a small 1005mb feature, so the only real impact on the UK is to work with the Azores High to bring some fresher Atlantic air our way in a way not all that dissimilar to GFS, though not quite as marked.


Out to day 7 at last and ECM is really driving energy east... where did that jet energy spring from? Don't think I'm going to bother waiting for the rest of the run 


 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Matty H
  • Matty H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
22 July 2014 06:33:51
Appears to be less shortwave disruption on the operational outputs this morning toward the end of this week?
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
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GIBBY
22 July 2014 07:05:00

Rather busy today so my report can only be seen on my website here:-


Model Output 22/07/2014

Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset


Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
JOHN NI
22 July 2014 07:26:45
Interesting that the EC 32 day broadscale outlook had the July hot spell pretty much spot on from mid-June. I feel this product gets an unfairly poor press on some occasions.
John.
The orange County of Armagh.
Charmhills
22 July 2014 08:58:10

Appears to be less shortwave disruption on the operational outputs this morning toward the end of this week?

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Not from this morning's Met/o run anyway but from the ECM with cooler air making its way in by Monday and to some degree from the GFS.


Though still generally settled bar a few showers around.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
idj20
22 July 2014 09:01:23


Appears to be less shortwave disruption on the operational outputs this morning toward the end of this week?

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Not from this morning's Met/o run anyway but from the ECM with cooler air making its way in by Monday and to some degree from the GFS.


Though still generally settled bar a few showers around.


Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Living here at East Kent, I wouldn't be able to tell the difference - probably end up as being warmer compared to this morning.

Sorry, couldn't resist that, but yes, looking set to be warm and settled for the rest of the week with a risk of thundery stuff by the weekend as temperatures and humidity levels creep up.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Stormchaser
22 July 2014 09:06:35

ECM and GEM are more amplified and drop a weak trough south through the UK to end this week, pulling in a notable area of fresher Atlantic air and also producing an unsettled day or two.


GFS and to a greater extent UKMO go with a flatter version of events, not dropping that trough south, with a lot less influence from the Atlantic airmass.


 


All models maintain the theme of the Azores High displacing towards the UK days 9-10, though GEM has enough trough development to the N and NE to delay the arrival of the high pressure cell by a day or so.


 


Who will be right? Can't say really as both ECM and UKMO have very strong weighting when it comes to developments in the 4-5 day range, and they are currently at different ends of the spectrum!

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Super Cell
22 July 2014 12:58:11


Certainly looking good till at maybe the middle of august apart from a few thunderstorms at times. Who would have thought we would have two consecutive good summers? Well not good if you dislike it too hot which is understandable.


Originally Posted by: bledur 


Last summer certainly wasn't good here. Just not as bad as those which preceded it.


This summer is, however, shaping up very nicely indeed


 

Farnley/Pudsey Leeds
40m asl
cultman1
22 July 2014 17:11:16
The local London radio has downgraded the weather for the next day or so with much cloud cover and potential showers for the London and south area. This is contrary to the weather forecasts issued by other providers. Much of the south of England is at risk?
David M Porter
22 July 2014 19:05:20



Certainly looking good till at maybe the middle of august apart from a few thunderstorms at times. Who would have thought we would have two consecutive good summers? Well not good if you dislike it too hot which is understandable.


Originally Posted by: Super Cell 


Last summer certainly wasn't good here. Just not as bad as those which preceded it.


This summer is, however, shaping up very nicely indeed


 


Originally Posted by: bledur 


Agree there, Simon. Last July's heatwave aside, last summer wasn't really anything special in the grand scheme of things as both June and August were no better than average here. There has definitely been more dominance by high pressure so far this summer, certainly since mid-June where I live.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Ally Pally Snowman
22 July 2014 19:21:20
GFS is still pretty good tonight but a poor ECM for heat last warm day Saturday if correct.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
David M Porter
22 July 2014 20:04:07

GFS is still pretty good tonight but a poor ECM for heat last warm day Saturday if correct.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Surprised by ECM really, especially given that it goes against GFS and UKMO even as early as 144hrs. Will have to wait for what the mean and ensembles say before we can say whether or not it's an outlier.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Ally Pally Snowman
22 July 2014 20:32:11

GFS is still pretty good tonight but a poor ECM for heat last warm day Saturday if correct.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Surprised by ECM really, especially given that it goes against GFS and UKMO even as early as 144hrs. Will have to wait for what the mean and ensembles say before we can say whether or not it's an outlier.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Well the ECM mean is pretty close to the Op so it could be game over for the heat wave fairly soon (Sunday).

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
idj20
22 July 2014 20:35:27


GFS is still pretty good tonight but a poor ECM for heat last warm day Saturday if correct.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Surprised by ECM really, especially given that it goes against GFS and UKMO even as early as 144hrs. Will have to wait for what the mean and ensembles say before we can say whether or not it's an outlier.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Well the ECM mean is pretty close to the Op so it could be game over for the heat wave fairly soon (Sunday).

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



"Game over"? It's not really getting going properly in the first place here at this end of Kent as well as East Anglia.    


I almost missed that short burst of warmth last week by blinking.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Medlock Vale Weather
22 July 2014 20:43:55

Thank fully JMA keeps high pressure with us at the end of it's run


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014072212/J192-21.GIF?22-12

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
Andy Woodcock
22 July 2014 22:14:28



GFS is still pretty good tonight but a poor ECM for heat last warm day Saturday if correct.

Originally Posted by: idj20 


Surprised by ECM really, especially given that it goes against GFS and UKMO even as early as 144hrs. Will have to wait for what the mean and ensembles say before we can say whether or not it's an outlier.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Well the ECM mean is pretty close to the Op so it could be game over for the heat wave fairly soon (Sunday).

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



"Game over"? It's not really getting going properly in the first place here at this end of Kent as well as East Anglia.    


I almost missed that short burst of warmth last week by blinking.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Really?


Apart from the odd day its been basically warm and dry since late May here and this week is a scorcher, how often is Cumbria warmer than Kent? Must be a 1 in 100 year event!


Andy

Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001

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