Hello folks,

Here's the week ahead forecast video: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html

Here's the Written version: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html

Becoming less hot, but still warm or very warm at times. Really not too bad a week, to be fair.

I'll have the second autumn 2014 update tomorrow, so keep an eye out for it.

Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the Mods for making it possible.

EDIT: Here's the second autumn 2014 update video: http://www.gavsweathervids.com

 

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Thanks Gavin, as always. 

Cheers as always, Sir Partridge of the Gavin.

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Thanks Gav.looks like this great summer may last a little longer.

Thanks Gav

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Thank You  Gavin..

Dry is okay . A drop of rain is ok as well  ....

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Thank you Gavin excellent write up I hope that high pressure may rebuild after the medium term projected mixed weather

thanks gav i hope high pressure stays AWAY lol.  

Thankyou Gavin .

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Thanks all.

Here's the second autumn 2014 update video:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Using ten long range models for this one + The signal is very strong this month!

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Thanks Gavin. Those models are really showing a very strong signal there.

My own thoughts at this point are that September and October are reasonably likely to be above average and Autumn as a whole will also probably be reasonably warm. But I think there is a much greater chance that November could be colder than average although if it is this will probably be by no more than 0.5C.

So I have voted for November as the first month this year with a below average CET. I was interested to note after voting that the current results of your polling show November with the most votes (about one-third), with October in second place. That feels right to me. I can't see either August or September coming out lower than average.

 

Thanks Gav for once again producing these informative videos. I don't buy the the drier than average outlook for Autumn, like you I think there's some model bias ( for want of a better word ) going on and I expect something more like the CFS V2 and Jamstec model being nearer the mark. No science behind the guess  as I think we are stuck in these changing patterns which tend to last a few months since around 2007. The next phase will no doubt signal a wetter than average period for some considerable time.

Thanks guys. 

GW, the poll result is certainly very interesting - It does seem that folks are expecting a change sometime through the autumn, with November currently favoured (but October isn't far behind)

I'll be reviewing the results on my blog this evening actually.

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