It's easy to forcast the weather in the UK, week's,months...even millennia in advance.

Folow these 5 simple rules and you will never get it wrong

 

1. It is always cloudy and dull in Aberdean

2. Neverending thunderstorms in Loughborough

3. A shed somewhere in the surrey wilderness, is the hottest place in the known universe

4. It will allways snow in you're back garden, if you reside in Yate.

5. The Met Office is allways wrong...P-i-e-r-s- c-o-r-b-y-n and the express are all you need.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY MONDAY AUGUST 18TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Low pressure will persist over Scandinavia with a cool but weakening NW flow across the UK persisting too.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly rather cool with sunshine and showers and with some longer spells of rain at times later more especially over the North and West.

THE JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream currently flowing SE across the UK will weaken through the coming week at the same time as tilting back to a West to East flow and migrating further South towards France by next weekend where it blows a little stronger again then. Towards the end of the period the flow becomes more complex but generally quite weak for a time.

GFS The GFS operational this morning shows a cool week to come under a reltaively light NW flow. A showery trough is shown to sink South across the UK later in the week followed by a ridge to give a cool and dry weekend before a more mobile, stronger westerly flow under association of low pressure moves across from the West in Week 2 with rain, showers and brisk winds for all at times. The GFS Ensembles this morning show a similar synopses and trend but the drier interlude at the weekend might last a little longer for some Southern and Eastern parts where it also could become less ool for a time early next week.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows the showery trough later this week clearing away to the East with a 'Col' area over the UK to start next week with a lot of dry and bright weather under clear or bright skies but very chilly nights.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts maintain a cool and occasionally unstable airflow from the NW over the UK up to next weekend with a mix of sunnier moments mixed with more showery and cloudier interludes.

GEM The GEM operational today shows the showery airflow this week giving way to a brighter and less cool few days around next weekend before renewed Low pressure moves in from the west next week with cloud, breeze, rain and showers in that order affect the UK next week. 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too follows the trend of others with a cool week to come with some showers and brings a ridge of High pressure across the UK at the weekend before Low pressure moving over the North from the West early next week sweeps troughs across the UK with wind and rain for all. 

ECM The ECM operational shows the most optimistic outcome this morning if you live towards the SE. Though the same sequence of events look likely in the same way as the other models suggest High pressure is shown being closer to the SE for a time with much wamer and drier conditions possible here before shallow Low pressure towards the SW brings the risk of some thundery rain towards the end of the run to all but SE England.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There again seems little shift of emhasis in this morning's output to the pattern that has been shown now for repeated runs of late although ECM does offer something a little different in it's operational at least.

MY THOUGHTS  The general theme of the model outputs this morning is for a continuation of the changeable theme. After the agreed upon cool and occasionally showery conditions of this week a warmer and dry weekend looks like being the precursor to more Low pressure moving in off the Atlantic early next week with wind, rain and showers for all looking likely. ECM does offer a grain of comfort in that it holds next week's Low further to the NW allowing High pressure to the SE to bring much warmer air NE across Southern and Eastern Britain but unless it is given strong support from it's ensembles issued later this morning then I'm afraid it looks like a grain of sand in a desert and the more likely scenario is for the UK to continue it's chance of bucking the trend of the warmer than average months most areas have seen of late.

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GFS delays the arrival of the low by 24 hours (compared to the general trend of yesterday) so much of the UK has a chance of a decent Sat/Sun. ECM keeps the arrival at around Saturday night/Sunday day. Navgem builds the ridge into a stronger-lookign feature that would also keep generally OK weather over the UK through Sunday.

 

General advice: get your outdoor activities done on Saturday, maybe Sunday. Really don't wait until Monday...

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That's very kind.

There are many other fantastic non-pro forecasters out there. 

On Topic: SS's assesment looks about right. OK, Sat and Sun, downhill Monday.

BH Monday looks a good day for a new historic video..

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The Beaulieu Super Car Showdown is on Monday 25th 

 

ECM's the only run offering a possible escape from wet weather, as it has a secondary LP rushing the frontal system through sooner than the other models, followed by a ridge slowly building from the south as trough disruption occurs out to the west.

That trough disruption doesn't feature on any of the other runs. ECM tends to lead the way with that process so it's worth keeping an eye out for trends in that direction by GFS and GEM.

Having said that, ECM differs from even UKMO as early as day 5, so confidence is low - for all of the 00z model runs. Next!

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Hi all,

We're thinking about September in today's video update;

An Unsettled September Coming Up?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Sign's of a more unsettled September coming up than we've been used to.

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An educated guess from me: Mild or very mild winter ahead!

With August seeing a change to cooler and changeable, this, as suggested, may lead to a more unsettled type of September. In other words, very depressing!

A coolish and changeable autumn, imo, increases the chances of a mild and naff winter. Fwiw, nature could be a better indicator than any model, fancy chart or jargon-filled LRF. It was reported that autumn could start early as the signs were there... woodland, trees and hedges etc.

Besides.... I don't care!
Why?
I am seriously considering returning to Bjorli and if I decide to go, it would be swift and most likely before Xmas. My 5th move abroad? The odds are rapidly shortening...

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Snowless winters just too much for you, Mike?

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come on dont say that. we had one last year. [ mild winter ]  2 in a row is that possible, or fair for us coldies...anyway im glad its an educated guess. 

I dunno really - parts of October 2009 and almost all of November 2009 was unsettled yet the following Winter was bitter and very snowy here.

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More than possible.

Just look at the run of winters from 87-88 to 89-90. Three exceptionally mild winters in a row. 97-98 to 99-00 was similar. Then theres the 1970's where we had multiple mild winters from 1971 to 1976.

Remember, in the UK, mild is the default set-up and cold is the exception.

However, even mild winters would normally have some cold/snowy interludes. What happened last winter was very extreme and unusual. We don't get many winters that barely record a single air-frost from beginning to end!

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thanks for the historic re-cap gav. i did,nt think that meny mild wniters in a row was poss not a frost here last winter. thanks for the post intresting to know.

Yes - but what was so mazing about last winter was that it was not record breakingly mild - what was amazing was the almost entire absence of frost.

My coldest night was -2C.

And I think I had just 3 air frosts.

 

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A wonderful reminder Gav

Thank you

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Winter was the same here, snowless and generally milder to the point that many of my bedding plants survived and flowered again this summer.  Then Spring was quite warm and Summer came early, so it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect Autumn to come early. 

We had a run of miserable Summers and now we've had two good ones and hopefully the run will continue.  As for winter.......  We've had a run of snowy ones, so maybe we're due a run of mild ones.  I agree that nature is a good indicator of the season to come and I haven't observed anything to suggest a cold winter.

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I guess I was lucky to have one evening of settling snow here on the 11th February, for a time it was coming down quite steadily and blown about in strong winds but by mid morning the next day it had melted, overall it was a pathetic Winter.

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I've gone past caring Caz.

The one thing I notice this year (winter) more than any years I can remember is the amount of time we were rained off in between having around a dozen storms thrown in for good measure.

I wouldn't be surprised if we had a cold snap through the winter months or even late Autumn because you just can't tell what it's going to do. Even the wet piece of string doesn't work anymore

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Let me guess... 1986?

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  Absolutely.  I've been around long enough to be un-surprised at any weather we get.  However, it would be a bit boring if we all just stuck around waiting to see what it did, so it's nice to talk about it and speculate.   

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I know this is off topic but I think we can make one firm prediction for next winter,

It can not be as miserable as the last one!

Andy

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From a weather interest POV it was an extraordinary winter. The amount of rain between mid-December and mid-February was truly exceptional down here. The synoptics were also exceptional because that spell was relentlessly stormy and seemingly fuelled by the cold on the Eastern Seaboard continually fuelling cyclogenesis as it met the warm Atlantic.

Winters can be pretty boring in the south with a lot of dull weather accentuating the lack of daylight. Last winters weather made it a very interesting time although I obviously have great sympathy with all those that suffered loss and damage as a result.

Apologies for remaining O/T but I thought I'd add my somewhat different take on events     

LMAO classic SC!
With ground frost and snow on the Scottish mountains this week winter certainly isn't over..... Even in Summer LOL
Mind you, Richard in Aberdeen always keeps saying how poor Scottish summers are so perhaps we shouldn't be surprised!
Back on topic, a quick flick through the data this morning confirms a rather cool and unsettled picture at times as we slip towards the end of the month.

ECM and GFS showing tentative signs of an end of month improvement.

Edit: not that it's been anything like awful here. Warm with plenty of sunshine again yesterday.

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Early Morning Latest Discussion.

OMG- the GFS 00z run is Tracking the PFJ and Mid Latitude Lows to Dominate at least this Week and Next Week after a fine and Cool weekend- that warms later Sunday.

Spells of Low Pressure to Steer along carried across NW Central Middle North Atlantic to UK North west and North Europe- both warm and wet and also veering of west SW winds to at times NW and North with then coming from SE Canada NE USA and from SW side of Greenland- With the cut off SW winds of West N Atlantic changing to Cyclonic with West and NW incursions more greater linked to them so that bands of Wet and windy weather with heavy rain and showers occur in Central to NW Atlantic and NW to N Europe.

UKMO 00z run just like the GFS 00z no contradiction about them both, the PFJ is tracked well to South in our UK and NW to N Europe with High Pressure dominating Greenland and to our North across West Central North Norwegian Sea and Svalbard right indeed to T144 and to T240 on GFS, to 144 UKMO this Weeks Cool Spell Quite like Autumn and it looks like an August that will be marked by this dominating Southerly placed Jetstream that has NW and some Northerly's as we'll like this week!.

Ahem say what you will but maybe send this up your backs as you would on this Model Output Discussion - is summer over now. Ramp on and start making splat of this amongst your preferences- will it change by 31st August: that is open for debate: Jiries can sit back and assign his Mods on this truth- if this happens to Chilly camp vs Summer warm fans- I like both so there!.

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But the reverse is happened for London Yesterday as we got wet rain showers and a few sunny spells - showers lunchtime to the evening but it was just pleasantly Cool but chilly by evening.

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