HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY AUGUST 22ND 2014.
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A cool NW flow will slowly give way to a ridge of High pressure moving slowly towards the UK from the West tomorrow.
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly changeable weather with a mix of cloudy and rainy periods alternating with showers and occasionally dry and brighter conditions, these looking increasingly likely across the South. Rather breezy and cool at times but warmer in the South with time.
THE JET STREAM FORECAST The very slack Jet Stream flow at present will become rather stronger as next week progresses with it's location remaining close to Southern Britain for much of the period though there is some evidence that it may drift further North towards Northern Scotland for a time.
GFS The GFS operational this morning shows changeable conditions across the UK over the next few weeks. Weakening Low pressure commences this theme from early next week before a mix of High pressure ridges close to the South at times alternates with further Low pressure and troughs crossing chiefly Northern Britain at times too. This sets up rather warmer conditions over the South than recently with some warm sunshine in places with some rain at times too. The GFS Ensembles endorse this viewpoint too with HIgh pressure never far away to the South ensuring the most frequent and heaviest rainfall occurs across the North and West with the driest weather in the South and East. Importantly too all areas should become rather less cool and indeed rather warm in the SE at times.
UKMO UKMO this morning shows slack cyclonic conditions across the UK early next week with a mix of outbreaks of rain and showers for a time before a drier interlude is followed by a freshening of wind and approaching rain from the West by soon after midweek as Atlantic Low pressure moves in.
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show complex and weakening Low pressure as we move into the early days of next week following this weekends ridge and attendant fine but cool weather.
GEM The GEM operational today looks very much more unsettled as Low pressure digs across the heart of the UK on occasion with rain and showers at times for all. It's not until very late in the run towards Day 10 that High pressure slowly builds into the UK from the SW.
NAVGEM NAVGEM looks a little like UKMO this morning with the early weeks weakening Low giving way to a benign midweek spell before Low pressure returns from the West by the end of next week with more breeze and rain at times for all.
ECM The ECM operational shows a different scenario to last night's operational at the end by improvong conditions across the UK from the SW following a changeable week with rain at times and a few drier quiet and brighter interludes too in temperatures largely near to average without ever being remarkable.
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The runs remain indecisive on conditions beyond 5 days out with no definitive reliable trend shown.
MY THOUGHTS Changeable is the word I would use to sum up this mornings output with all parts of the UK likely to see occasional bouts of rain and sometimes breeze too. The most changeable conditions look most likely across the North and West and while not all model output shows improvements from the South in a big way some do with the best chance of fine and dry weather at times most likely across the South and East. One thing that does seem a common denominator between the output is that with winds settling more from a west or SW point rather than the NW wind we have had of late it should become less chilly and possibly rather warm at times in the SE. It looks unlikely that there will be any long lasting UK wide fine weather through the next few weeks but on the other side of the coin no unusually wet or windy weather seems likely anywhere either.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset