Interesting thoughts Quantum.

With the jet through the UK disconnected from the main jet powering NE, I reckon any secondary low would head betwen Iceland and the UK, flattening the ridge a bit and acting as a setback while bringing some strong winds as it battles with the ridge building from the SW.

As it is, the model fields show fairly low surface convergence along the cold front associated with ex-Cristobal in the 4-5 day timeframe, due to the circulation being fairly circular in nature; winds wrap in towards the centre and this to some extent counters the cold front convergence.

Upper level divergence can only be exploited if there's surface convergence beneath it.

If ex-Cristobal's circulation turns out to be less 'clean' than currently modelled, then a secondary low becomes possible - but this sort of correction usually occurs in the 5-7 day range, particularly with the likes of ECM.

I'm still keeping my mind open on that, though.

Thanks Stormchaser :)

The parent low is heading to iceland on the latest models, so you could well be right, although I note that the position of Cristobal has been corrected eastwards already, if the parent ends up further south then expected, then so might the child. 

As a matter of interest, I've never actually seen a 'bomb' type low develop near the Faeros before, perhaps someone could give a historical example.

Surely a cold front provides the grounds for surface convergence? Even on the GFS atm, the trough of the cold front becomes very quickly visible, and the separation of the isobars is a tell tale sign of that. The activity of the front will be important I guess, but since this is a tropical system, I very much doubt we are looking at a kata type front unless the warm belt is well ahead of the cold front.

There is a rumour of fine and warm weather on the way. Is this just a flash in the pan or something loner lasting. Here is my interpretation of events using analysis of the 00z outputs.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Need to reverse September to August.... Thank you Martin....Looks like Autumn start has been put off.

Looks like to me a prolonged warm and settled spell for the first half of September is setting up from next week onwards.

Could be fog by night for some though giving the time of year now.

Notable that the Met Office thirty day forecast isn't seeing anything particularly prolonged in terms of high pressure though September.

Either the Met/ECM Ensembles are wrong or the models are over-doing this high pressurefest they are currently going for.

Time will tell.

the last few days the met/o summery,s look pretty average to me,,,,  looking forward to your 5- 7 day forecast today gav

In a nutshell, next week should see the return of summer

In recent years the first week/ ten days of September have been the most reliable

settled,warm spell of the whole year,a good week for holidaying in the uk

Jiries Me.

Gm pulls 20 uppers into southern England

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=204&mode=1&carte=1

look n/e Q you missed that one winter begins.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=0&map=1&type=0&archive=0

Some quite different solutions on offer from the models this evening. All feature high pressure prominently but giving us somewhat different results.

The GFS 12z run is a thing of beauty if you want hot conditions. It is a massive warm outlier from day 10 onwards though compared to the rest of the ensembles so should be taken with a very large pinch of salt. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

There are a number of key elements that combine to give the extent of the heat over the UK on that 12z run. Firstly the high drifts NE of the UK quite quickly drawing in very warm air from the SE. Eventually when the high declines away SE across eastern Europe it is immediately replaced by another high from the Atlantic which someone manages to maintain the very high temperatures across the UK. Often when a new high swings in from the west it brings at least a temporary cool down. Then the next ex TS system is drawn up NE to Greenland on a very similar path to that which Christobal is expected to take. This simply reinforces the high sitting over the UK.

That 12z run could result in some record breaking CET figures but I rather doubt things will pan out that way. The ensemble mean at T240 sees the high pressure positioned in a similar way to the ECM run. Still very warm but temperatures nearer the mid 20's rather than 30C+. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-240.png?12

ECM shows a static high sitting over the UK for several days and looks like a warm and very pleasant settled picture. Would likely see an extended spell of fine weather http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

It is not all good news though. GEM offers up this as early as Saturday 6 September. The return of cool northerly conditions! No thanks. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2402.gif

Let's hope so - I have been enjoying wearing my thick winter leggings this week, don't want it scorching hot again....

Must've been an eskimo in previous life............... 

It seems ex-Cristobal's initial impact on the UK - building a strong ridge across us - has been sorted out, but the way that the system behaves once located to our NE remains anyone's guess;

GFS has a fairly flat solution with the UK ridge elongated to the E/SE and a steady draw of very warm to hot air, while ECM has a much more amplified solution that drives a trough down to our east and leaves us with more of a 'homegrown heat' scenario - which obviously tends to prove less effective once into September.

GEM plays its usual trick of developing storm systems to the extreme, with spectacular results, as a stronger Atlantic trough (compared to the other models) pumps 20-22*C 850hPa temps up across the SE during day 8, only for a stronger trough to our NE to interact with the heat plume to produce a remarkable secondary low that reduces the 850hPa temps across the SE by 16*C in the space of 24 hours! 

More runs needed as usual. The ECM 12z op run is a little close for comfort with the trough action to the east - but I'd settle for a blend of that and the GFS 12z op run 

I notice a lot of scatter in GFS ens from around 6th September. My suspicion is that we'll have a very warm first week, then we'll keep it anticylonic probably for another week, but with a much cooler air-mass invading from the north or north-east.

Put my head on the chopping block there, LOL!

Fine and warm weather on the way next week but how long will it last? Here is my view on how the model outputs this morning see the answer to that question.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

This is looking very good. I like the website Martin.

Hi all,

Here's today's video update:

Summer Back Next Week

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

High pressure in control, but for how long?

looking very good for next week, after that ?????  to far out in FI,   brian has updated BUZZ. he is on the fence after next weeks warm spell...

The exact behaviour of ex-Cristobal and how amplified the pattern becomes as a result needs to be sorted out before the longevity of the warm spell can be considered much.

UKMO has the least amplified solution tonight, but potentially the warmest for day 6, before the threat of Atlantic westerlies getting rather close to hand.

ECM lies at the other end of the scale, yet by day 10 we still see Atlantic westerlies.

Though we can't be at all sure how quickly a westerly flow with low pressure to the NW establishes, that does seem to be a likely follow-up to the ridge across the UK.

Perhaps a classic NW/SE split, still tending to be on the warm side in the south? That's the current model signal, but even as a combined force they can fall wide of the mark sometimes - so for now I'm going to be looking at next week's settled spell and hoping for it to be as persistent as possible 

i just watched michael fish video he said it could well be a transient affair this up coming warm summer spell.