So Cristobal is going to hit iceland, and deliver some warm weather to the UK in the process.

For those that are interested

Tommorow 12pm, cristobal is still fully tropical

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/18_5.gif

by 6pm transition begins

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/24_5.gif

Sub tropical by 6am Saturday

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/36_5.gif

Still has some tropical characturistics by midnight sunday

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/54_5.gif

but by 6am sunday its 100% post tropical

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/60_5.gif

The warm sector hits the UK by sunday night

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/72_5.gif

So some rain likely for the NW, cold front could still be quite active for parts of N ireland.

A new day and a new day of model outputs. Is the fine spell still on course to arrive next week and will it last. My version of how I see things evolving using todays outputs can be found here.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/ecmwf/2014/08/29/basis00/euro/pslv/14090500_2900.gif

Looks showery again by friday.

The models have shifted the Atlantic jet further north in the 8-10 day timeframe, hence a new ridge from the Azores is favoured over an Atlantic onslaught in the 00z op runs.

GFS and UKMO show the preceding Scandinavian ridge to be elongated west to east, which reflects a flatter jet profile and is most effective for keeping the UK within the warm airmass as the Azores High ridges NE and links with the Scandi ridge.

ECM and GEM depict a more circular HP, reflecting a more amplified jet profile, though ECM has backed down a bit from what it came up with in yesterday's runs. The jet dips down to our west enough to give a weak LP to the S of the UK what it needs to develop a little and head N/NE through or close to the UK. The main impact on us is to pull in some much cooler air for a day or two, along with some showers.

The persistence of the models with the idea of a strong 'Atlantic train' to our NW for the second week of September lends good confidence to the idea. Just how far NW the train runs remains to be sorted out. Even so, the trend NW this morning is encouraging if you're seeking widespread settled and warm conditions 

Hi all

Here today's video update; 

September Look-Ahead With JMA Friday; 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

A dry and warm start, but for how long? Think a change may come around mid month?

Not sure how sunny it will be next week Martin not really in the clear untill winds back s/e with dryer air

lets hope that front decays quickly as the high builds

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=tcdc&HH=66&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Managed to book Tue-Wed off next week and Tue off on the following week as my normal days off on Sun/Mon meaning great timing to do the garden fence painting which was delayed this month due to poor weather.  At least from Sunday onward things look warmer, sunnier and both car boot sales would be on.  Great to see summer on the way back after being absent for nearly a month now.

The outlook according to the models looks pretty decent for a while. I'd say the model runs just now are the best I can recall of any since the late part of July.

Is the fine spell still on course for next week and how long will it last. I attempt to answer these questions in this morning's analysis report here.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

I might have to be a bit of a moaning minnie spoilsport but I reckon it's going to end up as being a "Scotland/West Is Best" thing if the models carry on showing winds often coming in from the north east here at Kent what with that high pressure being positioned to the north of us here at this end. Very much what it has been like in the past summer.
  Of course, what I also need to factor in is how the seas around us are now at it's most warmest so there probably won't be much in the way of that North Sea cooling effect anyhow.

Or it might just be me being cranky after 20-odd emergency services vehicles converged on this one house on the other side of the street at 1 am last night where all the flashing reds, whites and blues made my bedroom light up like a night club, even with curtains closed.

Still, it is far better than seeing the charts being filled with bombing Altantic depression systems so I mustn't be too greedy.

Decent outputs of decent weather.. Well liked..  Keep any Beast From The East Away...

GFS certainly seems to be on its own tonight with regards to how the Atlantic jet stream evolves from day 4 onward and the associated behaviour of the mid-Atlantic ridge and troughs located south of it.

With ECM's extended ridge over a cut-off low to the south now well supported by UKMO and JMA, and GEM giving it some thought, that looks to be the form horse.

The mid-Atlantic/Greenland ridge and Scandi trough combination was actually first depicted by the ECM model, on last night's 12z op run, so it's curious that while this turned out to be just a wobble from that model, GFS has decided to run away with it today. Perhaps the answer lies with the MJO projections, which show a low amplitude MJO capable of at least a weak influence:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

The GEFS resolutely steer the MJO from phase 3 to phase 1 via phase 2, but the Canadian and Japanese model ensembles (JMAN and CANM) head the other way, while ECM has it hanging around in phase 3 without much sign of moving along.

See what phase 2 can bring in August:

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/AugustPhase2all500mb.gif

This looks a lot like the GFS 12z op run. The September phase 2 mean looks nothing like any of the output, so the response seems to be characteristic of August despite the change of month.

Here's the phase 3 mean for August:

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/AugustPhase3all500mb.gif

The ECM and JMA 12z op runs fit well with that.

Meanwhile Phase 4 in September is a good match for the GEM output:

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/SeptemberPhase4all500mb.gif

...so perhaps that model is seeing a response more in tune with the long term average for September.

I don't usually give the MJO much weighting for our weather, but the similarity of those means to the current model output really caught my eye.