Whether true or not, most peoples' perception is that 'the norm' for British weather is dreary & damp so 1) any deviation from that is welcome; and 2) most people just like sunshine or, failing that, weather that is useable.

Whether the weather be fine, or whether the weather be not. Whatever the weather we will weather the weather , whether we like it or not.  As my mother used to say. 

It's true that it wasn't that long ago when, I, too, used to think of our weather being boring every time we do have an high-pressure related set up, but after *that* past horrid living nightmare of a Winter (extended Autumn), I am seeing our climate in a different light. Now, whenever I see the outputs showing a benign set up showing a dead Atlantic and high pressure sticking close by - such as what they are showing at the moment - I sigh in relief, especially when the charts are showing the same trend in the 300 hours-plus time frame.
  Of course, it'll never stay this way for too long as we go into Autumn proper (it used to be my favourite season but I've gone right off it now) but for now I am appreciating this lull where it'll make my own weather forecasting fairly straightforward for a while, especially since kids and some parents are going to be getting back to the grindstone after the summer holidays.

A fine week to come but possible changes from the weekend. Here's my take on the outputs this morning.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Our current HP cell drifts to the east and loses influence by the weekend, with a new HP from the west taking over. Temperatures are warm Wed-Fri, particularly in the SE (mid-20's maximums) before falling to just a bit above average at the weekend (low 20's maximums in the SE).

This second HP cell then drifts east rather like the first one, but this time an Atlantic trough sets up to the west. GFS undercuts the HP a bit, turning it warm again but a bit unstable in the south with some showery activity, while ECM keeps the trough out west, with conditions not quite as warm (but still above average temperatures - 22-23*C maximums in the SE perhaps) but more stable.

Throughout this period, Scotland fares quite well in terms of remaining dry with light winds and decent temperatures (mid to high teens for the most part, low 20's locally). Not so sure about east facing coasts, but  the North Sea is at its warmest and the airflow generally slack, varying between northerly and easterly, so it looks alright there to my eyes 

Between Scotland and the SE, conditions are also largely settled, and temperatures in the high teens to low 20's for the most part.

It's a very decent outlook, and remarkably straight forward too.

Too straight forward 

Hi all,

Here's the September month ahead forecast; 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/september14.php 

After August's surprise's, a difficult month to call, but my prediciton is "near normal".

Thanks Gavin, as always 

thanks gav skywalker,

JMA not looking too shabby tonight, the high rebuilds over the UK out to day 9, so looks like plenty of settled weather to come, it's just the question of cloud amounts http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1921.gif

Uppers not bad either http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1922.gif

Hi everyone. As the spell of fine weather starts across the UK from today are there any cracks in how the models predict the longevity and extent of the fine weather today. Read my morning website report below to find out.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Anyone else notice how ECM seems to develop increasingly low uppers in situ over the UK from day 6 onward? It manages to occur despite little import of air from the NE or E (the airflow is weak anticyclonic - for the most part circulating around the UK).

Seems a bit erroneous to me - a reverse of what happened on the 12z run of Sunday when the uppers seemed to rise in defiance of the laws of thermodynamics.

An interesting UKMO run this morning:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014090200/UW144-21.GIF?02-06

The LP to the SW is a lot closer than the other models have it, producing a warmer but more unstable version of events.

GEM produces a good alignment of the HP for some very warm temperatures:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/archives/2014090200/gem-0-192.png

...but it does seem to have a habit of doing this too readily.

So after an increasingly warm run of days from today until Friday or perhaps Saturday, we may see temperatures falling closer to average with more cloud around in an E to NE flow, or we may see more of a SE flow sustaining higher temperatures but with the risk of a breakdown from the SW or W.

GFS, ECM and GEM have all picked up on a very shallow LP and some cooler air sliding down the eastern side of the UK Saturday-Monday, which compared to the 00z runs acts to greatly delay the transfer of HP eastward through the UK.

While this means a cooler day or two - though not by much according to GFS, thanks to plentiful sunshine through that cool air mass - it seems to be beneficial for prolonging the settled spell of weather, provided the sliding feature doesn't drop down too far west, in which case some showers would likely develop this weekend.

Curiously, UKMO and JMA don't buy into that feature at all. Either they're lagging behind, or not being fooled when the other models are.

Longer term, the picture is similar across all the models; 2014's most frequent pattern (as far as I can see and allowing for variations on the theme, with those few weeks in August a glaring exception) emerges yet again, with HP to the E/NE and LP in the mid-Atlantic. 

However, the Atlantic looks vigorous this time around, and that could act to flatten the ridge, preventing a Scandi High.

GFS shows this until later in FI, but the jet is positioned so far NW that we just see a sort of gigantic ridge from the Azores extending through the UK and well on into Europe. Then a Scandi High does begin to develop, though it struggles a bit against the active Atlantic flow.

GEM goes mad and flattens everthing to produce unsettled westerlies with LP tracking to the Shetland Isles by day 10. Good thing this model is notorious for giving things too much energy (hence the unreasonable bombing out storms, or super-strong HP cells, overcooked summer plumes, excessively cold blasts of Arctic air in winter... and so on).

ECM doesn't flatten things much at all, instead going for an undercutting LP for day 10. This sort of thing tended to win out during June and July, but now it's early Autumn so the rules are a bit different - keeping an open mind on this one.

How long will the current fine spell last and where if any changes will be likely to come from is the questions I try to answer while sifting through this morning's output.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm 

Thanks Martin.

Still looking like fine weather goes on until mid month, then cooler, more unsettled from Atlantic second half of the month. IMO.

That looks like the trend Gavin but the ECM Ensemble Mean at Day 10 doesn't look too bad especially towards the South and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The 00z runs have brought us good cross-model agreement on the overall proceedings.

The very weak North Sea low this weekend brings cooler conditions for some portion of the UK this weekend before the Atlantic jet picks it up and carries it away NE. Behind this, a ridge builds in from the SW and extends well NE as a marked trough sets up to the NW of the UK. Temperatures quickly recover to well above average for much of the UK.

Details still vary of course - the position of the North Sea low this weekend is furthest north on the GFS run, which keeps much of England in the warm air all the way through to the end of higher-res (192 hours) with mid-20's maximums each day. GEM and ECM have the position furthest south, with the cooler air affecting all areas except possibly the far south on the ECM run.

The position of the marked trough NW of the UK next week shows strong cross-model agreement this morning, and looks to be far enough away to allow that ridge from the SW to dominate out to at least 9-10 days range.

GFS goes on to flatten the ridge in lower-res (192-384 hours) and bring an unsettled westerly regime. By contrast, ECM and GEM produce more amplified solutions in which the jet shows signs of digging down towards the Azores. This most likely results in an area of low pressure developing around there, most likely on the periphery of the Atlantic trough. As that feature interacts with the HP across the UK and Europe, a thundery breakdown becomes more likely than a simple Atlantic onslaught.

The way I see it, September appears to be in with a chance of chasing 2006's astonishing record for a high mean CET, but this is just one of many possibilities. It would be classic if it did, because that's the only way that 2014 can continue to have a chance of setting a new annual CET record for my location! 

The longer term Beeb forecast seemed to hint at this also

No postings on ths thread since yesterday lunchtime reflects the slow and benign pattern of weather at the moment over the UK. Will it change anytime soon. My website daily report on the 00z outputs can be seen here.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Thanks Martin.

I think most weather websites find September provides a "calm before the storm" lull before traffic builds up from October through to Christmas!

Seems the ECMWF operational and ensemble are somewhat split next weekend? Of course ex tropical storms may have something to do with this?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The latest GFS run isn't too shabby with high pressure all the way to the far reaches of the low res (apart from a odd bit of trough-like disturbance to produce some showers for a time). I guess that's the model waking up in a good mood.

Now, if it could stay like that for the next six months, you won't get any complaints for me. Of course, in the real world, it is never going to turn out that way.

Mid to late September the only change will be Northern and Western parts may see some showers..  According  Met office 6-30 Day Forecast. 

Hi all,

Here's today's video update:

Settled Or Unsettled Mid-September?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Split between ensembles and operationals today.