and if i remember rightly, was,nt start of september 2012 hot,  ???

Seems the ridge goes directly through York, so that might be the reason why, although its just an educated guess. I note the winds are also coming from a SSWrly direction, so if they are carrying any moisture, latent heat would be released as they rise over the pennines, and noting that York is in a vale, its at an advantage.

Interestingly, York often holds daytime minima records in mid winter due to fog.

January 1881 was quite interesting as well... 

Kevin, did you ever have a view on the idea that September heatwaves are essentially the death knell for a cold winter subsequantly? 

I've seen the theory in the forums for quite a while from a few different people.

Not York, but Linton-on-Ouse (there's no official station in York itself. Linton is about 10 miles north of York, and as a rural location is often cooler).

As for that synoptic set-up, that's the only way we get the highest temps here - SSW drift with cloud breaking in the lee of the Pennines. 

A forgotten September heatwave: Early September 1973.  I think it got to 90F. 

The following winter was wet and mild, co-incidentally

WI

Surely the theory depends on (1) the set up that brings the 'heatwave' (eg, Scandy High, ridging Azores High, etc); and (2) whether that set-up becomes generally entrenched for the forthcoming several months.

here is one of gav vids from 24/8/2012 talking about what to expect at start of september 2012 looks a simalar set up as we head into next month,,,,????????

http://youtu.be/c-5Bgf0imOw    

start of september looked very warm/hot

I think September 1906 was the mother of all early Sept heatwaves, temps up to the mid 30's in Yorkshire.

Blimey, who IS that?

Indeed, valley's like this are similar in that we can get very thick fog and cold air trapped but 50 metres or so higher and it can be sunny and a bit warmer. That has happened many times over the years when we've travelled into Oldham town centre which is situated on a hill top about 210m asl.

January 1881 was a very severe month with multiple snow storms.

As I say in my Winter 1979 video, we've not had a severe January (below freezing CET) since 1979.

You would think we must be due one soon...

Pattern matching is a complete waste of time IMO, what happens at the start of September has absolutely nothing to do with what happens the following winter, any trend is just by chance rather then a physical mechanism alone.

What we want to look out for over the Autumn are the recurring jet stream patterns over N America as we get into November, persistantly warm temperature anomalies over Greenland, a tripole SST anomaly pattern in the Atlantic or a Central Pacific El Nino.

These are only indicators however (along with solar activity) but I wouldn't worry if we do get an early September heatwave as it has no bearing (just like a cold/ warm October).

Back to the winter of 1880/81, January 1881 saw one of the most remarkable cold spells to ever hit the UK so I would be more then happy to see that again even if it was just for 3 weeks.