For the UK for 5th-31st August 2014 and going by the official Met Office station reports what/when will be:

- The first 30.0*C              - The first diurnal mean (average of day temp + night temp) over 24.0*C at Heathrow

- The longest unbroken run of temperatures reaching at least 27.5*C

- The highest UK temperature?              - The lowest UK temperature?

- The rainfall as a percentage of the long term average?              - The sunshine as a percentage of the LTA?

Thanks as always folks, apologies for the delay this month - very busy times as I said in the July Game thread.

p.s. I know 30*C is quite high for a category, but I'm hoping that the models trend towards the sort of thing GFS showed for Friday on the 12z run today, resulting in a real possibility of 30*C but no guarantee, knife-edge stuff 

Thanks SC! 

I'll kick off with what I feel in my waters - very technical! 

- The first 30.0*C    15th        

- The first diurnal mean (average of day temp + night temp) over 24.0*C at Heathrow  15th

- The longest unbroken run of temperatures reaching at least 27.5*C   7 days

- The highest UK temperature?   31.4c

- The lowest UK temperature?  8c

- The rainfall as a percentage of the long term average?   95%

- The sunshine as a percentage of the LTA?  105%

Most of August.....

First  30.0c. 17th

First diurnal mean over 24c at Heathrow   14th.

Longest unbroken run of temps reaching 27.5c.   8 days.

Highest UK  temp  32c.

 Lowest UK temp     9c.

Rainfall percentage of LTA  83%

Sunshine percentage of LTA 138%

Reaching the bottom of chart again....

First  30.0c. 19th

First diurnal mean over 24c at Heathrow   20th

Longest unbroken run of temps reaching 27.5c.   6 days.

Highest UK  temp  31.4cc.

 Lowest UK temp     10c.

Rainfall percentage of LTA  95%

Sunshine percentage of LTA 110%

OK, I'll have a go 

- The first 30.0*C    15th        

- The first diurnal mean (average of day temp + night temp) over 24.0*C at Heathrow    9th.

- The longest unbroken run of temperatures reaching at least 27.5*C    6 days

- The highest UK temperature?    32.1 C

- The lowest UK temperature?    6 C

- The rainfall as a percentage of the long term average?    120% 

- The sunshine as a percentage of the LTA?    105%

Come on Rob!  Where are you?  Get you ass off that bar stool and get in here with your prediction! 

- The first 30.0*C -22nd-

  The first diurnal mean (average of day temp + night temp) over 24.0*C at Heathrow 20th

- The longest unbroken run of temperatures reaching at least 27.5*C  3days

- The highest UK temperature? 32.8c - The lowest UK temperature? -1c

- The rainfall as a percentage of the long term average? 62% - The sunshine as a percentage of the LTA? 83%

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gary

- The first 30.0*C    17th        

- The first diurnal mean (average of day temp + night temp) over 24.0*C at Heathrow  7th

- The longest unbroken run of temperatures reaching at least 27.5*C   5 days

- The highest UK temperature?   31.7c

- The lowest UK temperature?  0.4c

- The rainfall as a percentage of the long term average?   107%

- The sunshine as a percentage of the LTA?  107%

Can't say I'm very confident about this month what with the poor model consistency for later this coming week 

- The first 30.0*C   9th         

- The first diurnal mean (average of day temp + night temp) over 24.0*C at Heathrow  11th

- The longest unbroken run of temperatures reaching at least 27.5*C   10 days

- The highest UK temperature?   33.8

- The lowest UK temperature?  +5

- The rainfall as a percentage of the long term average?   85%

- The sunshine as a percentage of the LTA?  123%

For the UK for 5th-31st August 2014 and going by the official Met Office station reports what/when will be:

- The first 30.0*C      N/A

- The first diurnal mean (average of day temp + night temp) over 24.0*C at Heathrow N/A

- The longest unbroken run of temperatures reaching at least 27.5*C 5

- The highest UK temperature?  29.4     

- The lowest UK temperature? 2.2

- The rainfall as a percentage of the long term average? 105      

- The sunshine as a percentage of the LTA? 103

Thanks, for the nudge Caz. Good luck with al the hard work SC.

Sorry its so late....I was away in London over the weekend, and had assessments in work this week, so didn't even get chance to log on to TWO!!!

Big penalties are welcome.

Normally that would incur a 4 point penalty but given the reasons behind your late entry and I feel leniency is called for, so I'll knock it down by half 

Also, thanks for the good luck Rob - I'm nearly there now, dissertation submission on Monday! 

Very late but here goes.

First 30C.  None

run of 27.5c = 4

Highest 29.1C Lowest -0.1C

Rainfall 101%

Sunshine 98%

  Nobody can say I'm not the optimistic one!!!  Always look on the bright side of life, de dum....... 

- The first 30.0*C    15th        

- The first diurnal mean (average of day temp + night temp) over 24.0*C at Heathrow  15th

- The longest unbroken run of temperatures reaching at least 27.5*C   7 days

- The highest UK temperature?   31.4c

- The lowest UK temperature?  8c

- The rainfall as a percentage of the long term average?   95%

- The sunshine as a percentage of the LTA?  105%

OK, under the table I go!  It's amazing how things can change and how fickle our weather is.   

We were all caught out to some extent or other.

At the turn of the month, all of the model output and also guidance from similar years past pointed towards a warm August relative to the LTA.

That's the main reason why I've given up hope on the CET competition this year - even if I got lucky, I wouldn't get very far.

It's also rendered this month's prediction game as pretty much dormant, as none of the categories have been met or look likely to be before the final days of the month, if at all.

Just have to be thankful that its not been raining persistently for hours on end, with a few convective features to keep things a little more lively at times 

Yes indeed.  Well never mind.  We're all in the same boat, or not, as we haven't had that much rain as you pointted out. 

I tend to make predictions on the weather we're having at the time and forget that it can, and often does, change quite dramatically.  Still, it's all good fun and I might be rubbish at forecasting but so are computer models!   

I'm taking no chances with September as I'm off to Corfu with my mum and sisters.  And October, I'm looking to book somewhere in the sun with hubby. 

By 'eck!  It really has been a nippy ten days or so and it's a bit of a shock to the system after the lovely weather we've had the rest of summer. 

We haven't had many posts on here this month and that's probably because it caught us out a bit.  Don't you just love our British weather!!!!  It certainly changed very quickly after the first week of the month and it looks like it's set to change yet again (she says with fingers crossed).  

Will our predictions for September be influenced by the August weather?   I do think that I make my guesses on what the weather's doing at the time and I forget how quickly it can, and often does, change quite dramatically.

Week  1  good.

Week  2  mixed.

Week  3   Ok.

Week  4   Ok.

To be honest I've been dozing through much of the past fortnight, though I was wide awake for the downpours Monday and Tuesday! 

I'll have a look at the scores tomorrow - the majority are pretty much sorted now, with a somewhat tragic absence of any 24*C or above Heathrow means, 27.5*C or above temperatures, or the magic 30*C.

Everybody went to high for the maximum UK temperature, and the minimum one as well 

I can't say I'm going to enjoy doing the scores much, I would really like to forget what has been one of my least favourite months since I started paying much attention 11 years ago 

Never mind eh? Best look ahead to the September game 

Yes, August has been quite a shock here after being totally spoilt with sunshine and mid twenties temps almost constantly during June and July, in fact most of May was good too.  But this month, week 1 wasn't too bad, but weeks 2 and 3 were just cold, wet and windy and the temp dropped by about 10 degrees practically overnight and stayed there.  There has been an improvement in the last half of week 4 and there's no longer that nip in the air that made it feel like winter was not far away.

I put my shorts away at the beginning of week 2, but they may well come out again. 

Bam! Here's the situation as it stands - just the rainfall and sunshine categories to go.

cultman1 would have to have a right disaster - and Rob a stunning pair of results - to lose the top spot now, but stranger things have happened... though the rain and sun stats to 25th August aren't suggesting such things so cultman1 probably has it.

I can't imagine how the top two managed to forsee a chilly sort of August, but that appears to have been the case. Domma also went on the cool side to some extent. If that was a case of genuine prediction, I commend you three!

The rest of us have suffered at the hands of misleading late-July signals (run with it, it's a fine excuse ), with quite a jump between 3rd and 4th place.

There's still a bit left to play for at least, with both me and Gooner still in contention for 3rd place - sorry Domma but you can't rest easy just yet