All in Jest , just incase anyone shoots me down for posting the link

A warm sector will show up in hi res and spoil the party 

My predictions for this winter

1. The Faily Express predicting an Ice Age and the worst winter for 1500 years


2. Thousands of complex posts on Statrospheric Winter Warmings no-one understands but nevertheless will use to convince themselves point 1 will happen


3. Cold and snowy GFS 12z runs at T+ 240 cause 10 MO pages a minute each of which contians the words 'more runs needed' followed by...


4. Shortwaves ruining said cold spell at T+48 leading to mass bickering and hysteria and winter is over and im not doing this again posts

Snow fell down to 1800m above sea level over Northern Italy over the weekend and settling...

Is that unusual for this time of year then?

I predict that, at various times over the forthcoming autumn/winter, the Express will also run headlines warning us of Biblical floods, droughts & hosepipe bans in summer 2015, and fresh evidence concerning the death of Diana, pricess of hearts and whales.

The CFs has been showing some promising signals for Pressure anomallies for  D J F on TWO these past few weeks, with plenty of well placed higher pressures. Not 100% brilliant northern blocking. But overall a pattern of Colder/Drier weather. With HP somewhere to the north of us on all months on the runs :http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/cfs/12_2014_00z_500.png?cb=872 an example. Is it worth taking a general pattern from this?

My prediction is the London Underground and Heathrow will stop services after 1 inch of snow............. the "wrong kind of snow" will stop trains running and we run out of grit. And Richard in Aberdeen will still be moaning about how terrible the climate of Aberdeen is.

It very hard to get direct cold and snow from the north without the warm sector as before the warm sector the temps would 7-9C then go up to 10-12C before dropping back to same levels so no use at all.  If warm sector does not exist on each time the temps of 7-9C would drop to 4-6C during the cooling/colder sector and drop to 0 to -2C maximum with snow around, this found in the continent landmass.

Just seen the Countdown to Christmas tab on TWO , White Christmas or Not LOL  

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

Thankfully I got lucky with my week away at the end of July, I know what a crappy holiday is like in this country weatherwise !!!

X-Factor, Christmas stuff being put into shops, Restaurants taking Christmas Bookings and Brian releases the Countdown to Christmas page.... It's on it's way

Hope your right about one cold month atleast, I have a new winter jacket that only got worn once last winter

Yes it's still there as of yesterday.

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

Surely this Winter can't be as bad as last Winter for the UK, even the Med froze and Saudi Arabia got buried 

Love the map Medlock! 

Siberian Autumn Incoming

I find Yakutsk in Russia an interesting place to watch the progression of Autumn into Winter - although this place seems to bypass Autumn and goes straight into Winter!. Whilst right now it's not particularly cold, by the end of September they start to struggle in the low single digits as max temps and by October they get plunged well below freezing as max temps and it pretty much stays that way until late April.

http://askyakutia.com/2009/01/how-do-the-people-of-yakutsk-survive-in-winter/

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/winter-coldest-region-northern-hemisphere-article-1.1269002

http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/europe/yakutsk-journey-to-the-coldest-city-on-earth-771503.html