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KevBrads1
07 September 2014 09:40:21

My predictions for this winter

  1. The Faily Express predicting an Ice Age and the worst winter for 1500 years

  2. Thousands of complex posts on Statrospheric Winter Warmings no-one understands but nevertheless will use to convince themselves point 1 will happen

  3. Cold and snowy GFS 12z runs at T+ 240 cause 10 MO pages a minute each of which contians the words'more runs needed' followed by...

  4. Shortwaves ruining said cold spell at T+48 leading to mass bickering and hysteria and winter is over and im not doing this again posts


UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 



I predict that if a Scandi high is threatening, Steve Murr will go into overdrive. The 168hr ECM will come out, he will say 192hr will be epic and when 192hr comes out, it isn't. Amazing the number of times he jumps the gun. It is that or he puts the mockers on it.

Steve Murr law. The greater his certainty, the greater the model's uncertainty becomes.

:p
MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Matty H
07 September 2014 09:53:07

My predictions for this winter

  1. The Faily Express predicting an Ice Age and the worst winter for 1500 years

  2. Thousands of complex posts on Statrospheric Winter Warmings no-one understands but nevertheless will use to convince themselves point 1 will happen

  3. Cold and snowy GFS 12z runs at T+ 240 cause 10 MO pages a minute each of which contians the words'more runs needed' followed by...

  4. Shortwaves ruining said cold spell at T+48 leading to mass bickering and hysteria and winter is over and im not doing this again posts


UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 



I predict that if a Scandi high is threatening, Steve Murr will go into overdrive. The 168hr ECM will come out, he will say 192hr will be epic and when 192hr comes out, it isn't. Amazing the number of times he jumps the gun. It is that or he puts the mockers on it.

Steve Murr law. The greater his certainty, the greater the model's uncertainty becomes.

:p

Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 



If I posted that I'd be told it was poor form 😂
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
squish
07 September 2014 10:11:11

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mSeaInd4.gif


 


Not a huge amount to go on....


 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euPrecSeaInd5.gif


 


but with precipitation charts it suggests northern blocking.....

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Solar Cycles
07 September 2014 11:06:27

My predictions for this winter

  1. The Faily Express predicting an Ice Age and the worst winter for 1500 years

  2. Thousands of complex posts on Statrospheric Winter Warmings no-one understands but nevertheless will use to convince themselves point 1 will happen

  3. Cold and snowy GFS 12z runs at T+ 240 cause 10 MO pages a minute each of which contians the words'more runs needed' followed by...

  4. Shortwaves ruining said cold spell at T+48 leading to mass bickering and hysteria and winter is over and im not doing this again posts


UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 



I predict that if a Scandi high is threatening, Steve Murr will go into overdrive. The 168hr ECM will come out, he will say 192hr will be epic and when 192hr comes out, it isn't. Amazing the number of times he jumps the gun. It is that or he puts the mockers on it.

Steve Murr law. The greater his certainty, the greater the model's uncertainty becomes.

:p

Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 



Very funny but so true.
sizzle
07 September 2014 18:21:23

if you want to find steve murr this winter  try netweather, thats where he seems to post mostly during winter time,

Medlock Vale Weather
08 September 2014 14:01:20

I notice when the nights become longer than the days (from 26th September) Winter soon comes round.

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
Saint Snow
08 September 2014 14:46:53


I notice when the nights become longer than the days (from 26th September) Winter soon comes round.


Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather 


 


I find that with age, time just passes quicker and quicker, so every bloody season soon comes round!



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Jonesy
08 September 2014 15:10:26



I notice when the nights become longer than the days (from 26th September) Winter soon comes round.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


I find that with age, time just passes quicker and quicker, so every bloody season soon comes round!



Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather 


True, this year is going so fast. Hoping for a decent mild Autumn with plenty of sunshine as we are enjoying currently, then Winter can give us a nice cold blast to clear the air ready for an early Spring :)

Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Medlock Vale Weather
08 September 2014 21:12:46

Well I hope we get snow over Christmas, nothing quite like it. Better than the disgustingly mild Xmas day 2011 which got up to 12C here! .........had the family over and the ones who smoke had the back door open and it didn't even feel cold with the balmy south/sw wind. Not right for the time of year lol!

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
nsrobins
08 September 2014 21:39:56


Well I hope we get snow over Christmas, nothing quite like it. Better than the disgustingly mild Xmas day 2011 which got up to 12C here! .........had the family over and the ones who smoke had the back door open and it didn't even feel cold with the balmy south/sw wind. Not right for the time of year lol!


Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather 


Not 'right' yes, but actually more likely than the Victorian Christmas card scene.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Medlock Vale Weather
09 September 2014 12:39:59



Well I hope we get snow over Christmas, nothing quite like it. Better than the disgustingly mild Xmas day 2011 which got up to 12C here! .........had the family over and the ones who smoke had the back door open and it didn't even feel cold with the balmy south/sw wind. Not right for the time of year lol!


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Not 'right' yes, but actually more likely than the Victorian Christmas card scene.


Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather 


Indeed, what a shame 

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
springsunshine
09 September 2014 14:55:07




Well I hope we get snow over Christmas, nothing quite like it. Better than the disgustingly mild Xmas day 2011 which got up to 12C here! .........had the family over and the ones who smoke had the back door open and it didn't even feel cold with the balmy south/sw wind. Not right for the time of year lol!


Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather 


Not 'right' yes, but actually more likely than the Victorian Christmas card scene.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Indeed, what a shame 


Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather 


Indeed,xmas is more often mild,even in 2010 the thaw had set in around xmas.


All you cold lovers must remember,to avoid disappointment that the default British winter is mild and wet with the occasional cold spell,snow is the exception rather than the rule.In this part of the uk its as rare as rocking horse s**t.


I personally think this winter will be similar to last,not as extreme but overall mild and wet with the atlantic dominating with the odd short lived cold spell.

Gavin P
09 September 2014 15:02:36

Any word on what TomC's tyre choice will be this winter?

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Joe Bloggs
09 September 2014 15:26:40
I see we are yet again under a northern blocking setup..

If this were January we would be getting excited about some flurries in the SE :p

.. With of course the chance of some lows hitting the block and bringing widespread snow later in the period.

Doesn't mean much of course, but tentatively good signs for the winter ahead.

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
TomC
  • TomC
  • Advanced Member
09 September 2014 15:28:51


Any word on what TomC's tyre choice will be this winter?


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


I always change to winter tyres in November, just as I did last year

Solar Cycles
09 September 2014 15:35:24



Any word on what TomC's tyre choice will be this winter?


Originally Posted by: TomC 


I always change to winter tyres in November, just as I did last year


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Gavin P
09 September 2014 20:28:23



Any word on what TomC's tyre choice will be this winter?


Originally Posted by: TomC 


I always change to winter tyres in November, just as I did last year


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Yeah but will it be for  or  and  ?  

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
KevBrads1
10 September 2014 16:06:56
Interesting little article in the Times today. It says winter weather has become more unstable with 5 of the most extreme winters in 115 years occurring since 2004.

"Winter weather patterns over the UK have become distinctly more unstable resulting in contrasting conditions from very mild to extremely cold and snowy."

It says extreme weather more likely in December.

The study was by the Hadley Centre and the Universities of Sheffield and East Anglia.
MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
some faraway beach
10 September 2014 16:41:55

If we'd suddenly had, say, an unprecedented 50-year period of variation at the end of 575 years of records, I'd start to be interested. But surely a sample of just 115 winters is way too small to start labelling a decade which includes some varied weather as anything other than a sequence to be expected at some point.

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
JACKO4EVER
11 September 2014 06:55:10
IMO the very early cold outbreak in Northern America isn't good news for our patch this winter, I would have much preferred to see this cold shot hit Siberia and Scandy. Very early days for thinking about winter seeing as the weather is so glorious ATM, but my best guess would be a mild, windy and often cyclonic affair. And yes, it's only an ill-educated guess!
Justin W
11 September 2014 08:26:47

I've just bought a Defender in anticipation of extreme weather this winter 

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Matty H
11 September 2014 08:31:21

I've just bought a Defender in anticipation of extreme weather this winter 

Originally Posted by: Justin W 



Was it Ashley Cole? If so it'll slip and slide all over the place.
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Justin W
11 September 2014 08:34:23


I've just bought a Defender in anticipation of extreme weather this winter 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Was it Ashley Cole? If so it'll slip and slide all over the place.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 


 


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Russwirral
11 September 2014 11:01:15

CSF long range model continues to show Northern blocking type annomallies for DJF ~ 80% of the runs they have issued over the past 4 weeks. 


 


Interesting times.


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
tallyho_83
11 September 2014 18:00:51

Well if we had this set up (Scandi High) but in Dec, Jan or Feb we could be in for some very cold weather!!? Right? Severe penetrating frost??

Just take a look at this blocking!???

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.gif

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


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