Manchester Summer for 2014: 236

Summers in order with the best at the top and the worst at the bottom
1976 301
1995 298
1983 278
1955 277
1911 274
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267
1989 262
2013 260
1947 255
1933 251
1901 249
1921 249
2003 247
1925 246
2006 246
1996 245
1935 243
1994 240
1934 238
1940 238
1941 236
2014 236
1970 235
1969 234
1973 234
1999 234
1997 232
1990 229
1917 228
1926 227
2005 224
1905 223
1932 223
1945 223
1967 223
1977 223
1914 222
1992 222
1908 220
1960 217
1950 216
1957 216
1968 215
1906 214
1942 214
1937 213
1939 213
1904 212
1929 211
2001 211
1903 209
1943 209
1991 207
1913 205
1971 205
1919 203
1961 203
1982 203
1951 201
1918 200
1944 200
2002 200
1930 199
1974 199
1979 199
1952 198
2000 198
1928 197
1962 197
1964 197
2004 197
1915 196
1981 196
1902 195
1963 194
1993 194
2009 194
1953 193
1966 192
1998 192
1988 191
2010 191
1910 190
1936 190
1965 189
1986 189
1916 188
1972 185
1958 184
1985 180
2011 179
1922 178
1938 177
1948 176
1927 175
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1909 171
1946 170
1987 169
2008 168
2012 164
1924 158
1912 156
1956 155
1907 147
1954 143

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Cheers Kevin and thanks for those figures - I don't think we did too badly at all really.

Amazing when you see those figures and see the awful summers of 2007 to 2012 inclusive all around the lower readings.

We were well clear of that lot this year.

 

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Perhaps not as high as you might expect, as result of August mainly?
Mind June was chilly here too with frequent onshore winds, but all three months have been charcterised by ample but never excessive rain, and plenty of 'usable' fine days.

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It was a very good summer, apart from the final 3 weeks really.

The main thrust seemed better than 2013 to me, but looks like August dragged down the score to below last year.

Thanks for the figures...yes 2014 has been a good summer in the NW.

Consistently warm, rather than especially hot. Similar to last year really...here in sunny Leyland July 2006 and August 2003 had much hotter days than 2014 or July 2013.

What always gets me about the data back to 1900 is how the worst and 3rd worst years (1954 and 1956) were sandwiched with the 4th best year (1955). For me, that is just the random, unpredictable British weather...not some sinister effect of "climate change".

Any chance of publishing the Manchester winter stats? (or a link)  I fancy a bit of number crunching comparing summer and winter stats

 

 

 

 

1973-74: 30
1974-75: 26
1975-76: 41
1976-77: 141
1977-78: 90
1978-79: 262
1979-80: 66
1980-81: 90
1981-82: 149
1982-83: 85
1983-84: 82
1984-85: 140
1985-86: 159
1986-87: 100
1987-88: 37
1988-89: 20
1989-90: 26
1990-91: 126
1991-92: 40
1992-93: 43
1993-94: 78
1994-95: 45
1995-96: 135
1996-97: 72
1997-98: 25
1998-99: 47
1999-00: 42
2000-01: 77
2001-02: 50
2002-03: 44
2003-04: 50
2004-05: 47
2005-06: 59
2006-07: 21
2007-08: 37
2008-09: 105
2009-10: 197
2010-11: 119
2011-12: 47
2012-13: 102
2013-14: 7

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Kevin - are you able to please provide the formula so I can consider the methodology?

 

WI

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The Summer index is 10 x [(mean max of summer) +(total sunshine)/67 - (rain days/8)]

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Pretty as I'd imagined it'd be - better than average but not a barnstormer (due to a poor August)

 

Out of interest, what is the highest-ranking consequtive summer-winter (or winter-summer) combination?

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1976, 1976-77

1954-55, 1955, 1955-56, would be a very good summer between two good winters.

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2006-07, 2007. A very poor winter followed by a poor summer

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I'm actually surprised it's not higher, wonder if further North faired better this summer? Perhaps just not as bad as usual up here, lol! I might try and crunch the formula for the last 14 years of North of Scotland metoffice seasonal averages that are online when this summers are finalised.

 

Cheers, Kev 

 

Ah, 2007, the year of perpetual autumn 

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Probably something to do with the area being west of the Pennines and fairly exposed. I would hazard a guess that dispite the reputation of Manchester being very rainy it's probably not one of the wettest of places in the UK but it is definitely a very cloudy place, pretty much most of NW England is like that apart from south Cheshire which is more sheltered because of the Welsh mountains - a bit like areas east of the Pennines that get more sun.

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Yes I think despite this being a wet Summer here with 234mm of rain, the persistent warmth and the abundant sunshine more than made up for that.  In fact, very few days here were complete washouts, and even those tended to feature some decent thundery activity.  

The only real downside I suppose was the lack of proper hot weather - the highest I recorded was 27C.  Conversely, it was only in the second half of August that it went cooler than average.  So overall, I would class Summer 2014 as being pretty good.

 

 

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The highlight of summer 2014 for me, the first decent night thunderstorm for some years

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Thanks Kev

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Despite the poor August summer 2014 was a very good one in Cumbria, far better than 2013 with good weather extending from mid May to late July.

Yes, it never got very hot but who wants that, no one in these parts has air conditioning!

A lovely summer and the current spell of fine weather is a bonus.

Andy

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We were up in Cumbria over the Aug Bank Holiday weekend, Sat-Tue, and we didn't have one spot of rain.

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The equivalent ranking for JJA in my England and Wales summer index has 2014 as 11th since 1970:

1976	165.98
1995	159.88
2006	155.90
1989	154.11
1975	152.81
1983	149.20
2013	146.88
2003	146.21
1984	145.60
1996	143.43
2014	142.96
1990	141.05
1994	140.26
2005	138.94
1999	134.70
2001	134.23
1997	131.92
1973	131.45
2009	131.36
2010	130.93
2004	130.20
2000	129.20
1991	128.86
1992	127.72
1993	126.43
2002	125.68
1981	124.87
1979	124.84
2011	124.05
1982	123.76
2008	123.40
1998	122.32
1974	121.67
2007	121.54
1971	120.48
1986	119.84
1977	119.26
1972	117.84
1988	117.73
1985	116.54
1978	113.87
1987	113.45
1980	112.11
2012	110.14

So in England and Wales 2014 was a little worse than 2013, but a lot better than 2012!

The index is calculated as normalised E&W mean temperature + normalised sunshine hours - normalised rainfall (normalised so that each of the 3 variables has equal weighting).

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Thought I'd do something similar for Durham to represent NE England.

Method: Standardize mean max, rainfall and sunshine hours to 1951-2000 average.

Formula: Stnd Mean Max + Stnd Sunshine Hours - Stnd Rainfall

Then standardize the values obtained from the formula to the 1951-2000 average, the series can stretch back to 1890 to give the following values:

1976       2.41                        1941       0.69                        1936       -0.10                      1910       -0.65

1995       2.10                        1893       0.69                        1973       -0.11                      1890       -0.66

2006       1.94                        1992       0.68                        1951       -0.12                      1985       -0.66

1989       1.77                        1918       0.66                        1915       -0.13                      1939       -0.66

1933       1.74                        2014       0.65                        1964       -0.16                      1971       -0.68

1959       1.49                        1934       0.60                        1977       -0.18                      1998       -0.70

1949       1.41                        1925       0.51                        1913       -0.21                      1916       -0.72

1901       1.41                        1969       0.49                        1938       -0.24                      1932       -0.74

1947       1.32                        2010       0.47                        1937       -0.24                      1961       -0.74

1983       1.30                        1981       0.47                        1972       -0.26                      1891       -0.78

1911       1.30                        2005       0.44                        1962       -0.27                      1958       -0.82

1955       1.28                        1945       0.40                        1957       -0.28                      1965       -0.85

2013       1.25                        1960       0.40                        1929       -0.28                      1963       -0.87

2003       1.22                        1919       0.39                        1928       -0.34                      1924       -0.90

1952       1.22                        1896       0.35                        1974       -0.35                      1953       -0.94

1899       1.19                        1921       0.33                        2009       -0.35                      2008       -0.94

1935       1.09                        1988       0.21                        1946       -0.36                      1978       -0.95

1975       1.08                        1950       0.21                        2011       -0.36                      1948       -0.97

1996       1.04                        1904       0.16                        1967       -0.37                      1986       -0.97

1990       1.03                        1999       0.13                        2002       -0.39                      1968       -0.98

1984       0.97                        1914       0.13                        1997       -0.39                      1907       -0.98

1970       0.96                        1895       0.11                        2000       -0.42                      1892       -1.00

1897       0.94                        1917       0.08                        1894       -0.49                      1930       -1.00

1905       0.90                        1942       0.06                        1900       -0.50                      1922       -1.02

1906       0.87                        1943       0.03                        1944       -0.52                      1903       -1.07

1940       0.79                        1908       -0.01                      1982       -0.55                      1966       -1.09

1898       0.75                        1993       -0.04                      1920       -0.57                      1902       -1.13

1991       0.73                        1923       -0.08                      2007       -0.60                      2012       -1.37

1994       0.70                        1979       -0.08                      2004       -0.61                      1987       -1.45

2001       0.70                        1926       -0.10                      1909       -0.63                      1954       -1.51

                                                                                                                                   1927       -1.65

                                                                                                                                    1931       -1.71

                                                                                                                                    1980       -1.79

                                                                                                                                    1956       -1.88

                                                                                                                                    1912       -2.96

 

Didn't realise 1980 was that bad, also emphasises just how horrendous the summer of 1912 was, a value 2.96 standard deviations below normal really is remarkable. 2014 was very reasonable in the NE although not as good as Summer 2013 which was boosted by the fantastic July.

Edit: Data obtained here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/stationdata/

 

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Good stuff, interesting that 2014 is much lower placed here in the NE as was my feeling - we really haven't had much heat at all due to many days with a Nort Sea influence (highest was about 25C on a couple of days).

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I'm still awaiting final figures for Dyce but it was a poor summer - wet and unsettled with average temperatures and sunshine. This will place it in the bottom half of summers on my index similar to 2004 and 2009.

My index ranges from 0 to 100 and 50 should be the mid-point but due to the inordinate amount of poor summers lately there are actually four in the top half that finish below 50 ending with 1977.

Last year was vastly superior finishing 12th best out of 68 (though personally I would have rated it higher than 2006 but the score came out slightly lower because of the storms at the end of July).

1976       97.93

1995       96.17

2003       95.71

1947       94.89

1955       93.82

1983       90.46

1994       84.27

1975       80.95

1959       80.72

1989       80.22

2006       78.14

2013       77.94

1996       71.84

1969       71.38

1967       68.68

1984       66.54

1982       64.77

1972       64.12

1973       64.01

1950       63.60

1990       62.82

2005       60.25

1997       57.99

1981       54.67

1971       54.12

1949       53.66

1986       53.45

1991       52.47

1999       50.93

1964       50.21

1992       48.86

1974       48.74

1960       48.60

1977       47.84

1970       45.66

2009       45.10

1988       44.00

2004       43.35

2000       42.81

2010       38.79

2001       37.95

1952       37.78

1951       33.87

1956       33.26

2002       33.25

1968       27.43

2008       27.28

1961       26.02

1979       24.27

1962       22.39

1985       22.08

1953       21.95

1965       21.75

1993       21.31

1978       20.63

1957       20.42

1946       20.32

1998       19.70

1958       18.03

1980       17.94

2011       15.25

1954       12.93

1966       12.83

1963       11.93

1987       9.62

2007       9.58

1948       7.66

2012       4.51

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Sunshine data in the SE goes all the way back to 1876 so I had a look at this as well:

1976       2.60                        1900       0.47                        1919       -0.07                      1966       -0.73

1911       2.10                        2014       0.46                        1897       -0.08                      1948       -0.75

1995       2.02                        1925       0.45                        1979       -0.09                      1946       -0.76

1975       1.85                        1885       0.41                        2010       -0.13                      1992       -0.77

1949       1.81                        1893       0.41                        1878       -0.17                      1917       -0.78

1899       1.69                        1928       0.38                        1944       -0.19                      1980       -0.85

2003       1.58                        1901       0.38                        1902       -0.21                      1963       -0.90

1983       1.57                        1970       0.35                        1896       -0.24                      1985       -0.92

1989       1.56                        1993       0.30                        1957       -0.25                      1960       -0.96

2013       1.45                        2000       0.29                        1972       -0.26                      1988       -0.98

1933       1.45                        1952       0.28                        1991       -0.26                      1882       -0.99

2006       1.44                        1908       0.24                        1941       -0.27                      1890       -1.00

1887       1.42                        1998       0.21                        1905       -0.29                      1907       -1.07

1984       1.42                        1982       0.19                        1932       -0.29                      1958       -1.11

1921       1.41                        1951       0.18                        1950       -0.30                      1891       -1.12

1996       1.30                        1964       0.17                        1895       -0.32                      1910       -1.13

1959       1.19                        1930       0.17                        1915       -0.38                      1965       -1.23

1947       1.16                        2004       0.15                        1953       -0.40                      1971       -1.24

1940       1.10                        1923       0.13                        1938       -0.42                      1977       -1.27

1994       1.07                        1997       0.11                        1962       -0.45                      1956       -1.31

1934       0.97                        1942       0.10                        1889       -0.45                      1909       -1.35

1990       0.95                        1877       0.08                        2007       -0.47                      1894       -1.35

1876       0.92                        1961       0.08                        1987       -0.48                      1903       -1.36

1906       0.87                        2009       0.08                        1986       -0.52                      1880       -1.37

1955       0.81                        1967       0.08                        2011       -0.54                      1920       -1.45

2005       0.72                        1884       0.04                        1881       -0.55                      1927       -1.46

1929       0.69                        1926       0.02                        1939       -0.58                      1922       -1.46

1999       0.69                        1981       0.01                        2008       -0.63                      1931       -1.59

2001       0.69                        1918       0.01                        1924       -0.64                      1968       -1.65

1904       0.57                        1945       0.01                        1916       -0.64                      1888       -1.66

1935       0.54                        1913       -0.01                      1936       -0.67                      1954       -1.69

1969       0.52                        2002       -0.02                      1974       -0.71                      2012       -1.72

1943       0.52                        1886       -0.02                      1978       -0.71                      1912       -1.94

1937       0.48                        1914       -0.05                      1883       -0.72                      1879       -2.31

1898       0.48                        1973       -0.05                      1892       -0.72                                     

 

The 2007-2012 summers may have been poor but I'm glad I wasn't around in 1879 which appears substantially worse then 2012..., 2014 was not anything particularly special according to this index but was generally good. Rainfall was average pulling the index down but this was based on rainfall anomalies rather then rain days, hence why 2013 was much higher up.

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