Hello folks,

Here's the week ahead forecast video: http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Here's the Written Thoughts: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html

High pressure in control, though there will be some actual weather this weekend!

I'll have the first Winter 14/15 Update for you tomorrow, where we look at ENSO, Siberian snow cover, solar, etc...

Look out for it!

Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the Mods for making it possible.

Edit: Here's the first winter 2014/2015 update:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

 

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Great video, thanks for that!

Thanks Gavin.   Telescope out  on Sunday /Monday night for Harvest Mooning on patio....

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Thanks both!

OK, here's your Sunday video:

First Winter 2014/2015 Update (September)

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looks at solar activity, ENSO, QBO, Siberian snow cover, etc...

Will be many more updates through the autumn.

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Excellent video Gav , again shows the complications of getting everything together in order for us to get something cold and then it isnt a given.

 

The El Nino part was very interesting

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Thanks Marcus.

It does indeed take a lot to get the UK a cold winter - Which is why our prevailing wind direction is westerly.

Re. Modoki El Nino, I saved the best for last this week.

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Gavin - cannot play your video winter forecast on any platform - tried different platforms and browsers- strange that all other videos are fine - so dont know what the summary is for next winter

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Hi Sriram,

Don't know sorry.

There could be a problem on YouTube's platform. If so, things should be resolved quite quickly.

What I would suggest is that you still leave the the video playing for a while even when the "error has occurred" message comes up, because sometimes it will start working after a few seconds. Shouldn't take more than 10 deconds or so to reboot.

One other tip, if you using Internet Explorer you can often have problems with that browser.

I've just added the video to this page

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/nao14-15.php#here

With a little written summary, so that will give you the general gist of this update.

Hope those tips help and things sort themselves out for you.

EDIT: I've just tried the video out myself and all seems to be working OK. Maybe you should leave it a little while and try again.

Luckily this is only the first of many updates, so you will have plenty of opportunities to catch up.

 

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Thanks for adding the written summary. I had no idea El Niño Modoki was associated with such a large negative temperature anomaly in Europe.

From wikipedia:

"Recent Central Pacific El Niños happened in 1986–1988, 1991–1992, 1994–1995, 2002–2003, 2004–2005 and 2009–2010. Furthermore, there were "Modoki" events in 1957–59, 1963–64, 1965–66, 1968–70, 1977–78 and 1979–80."

I'm not sure whether overall there's any reliable effect on UK winters on the basis of that list, although I do like the fact that the last Niño Modoki event (2009-10) coincided with the last two memorable UK winters. Perhaps we're in a period where other general conditions are such that a Niño Modoki could work its magic again.

(As usual, apologies if you've already covered this in your video... being deaf, etc. etc.)

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Thank you Gavin 🙂

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Thanks FarAway.

I actually always do a small written summary to go with the longer videos (It's good for Google, LOL )

If you go to the last five minutes or so of the video it's worth having a look even if you can'y hear what I'm saying because the images I've got a pretty dramamtic, LOL.

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