Winter 2014-15 Prospects and Discussion· Page 8

tallyho_83
Advanced Member

11 September 2014 18:28:26

Well if we had this set up (Scandi High) but in Dec, Jan or Feb we could be in for some very cold weather!!? Right? Severe penetrating frost??

Just take a look at this blocking!???

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.gif

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83

I can imagine! -10c by night time penetrating frost and a raw easterly wind....potential snow grains and max of +2c by day and wind-chill of -5c.

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com

Gooner
Advanced Member

11 September 2014 18:59:48

#177

IMO the very early cold outbreak in Northern America isn't good news for our patch this winter, I would have much preferred to see this cold shot hit Siberia and Scandy. Very early days for thinking about winter seeing as the weather is so glorious ATM, but my best guess would be a mild, windy and often cyclonic affair. And yes, it's only an ill-educated guess!

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER

Good to hear from you Jacko mate, not sure how you can say a cold outbreak in September in States favours a milder winter here?

We had fog this morning , sure sign of a December freeze up

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

JACKO4EVER
Guest

11 September 2014 19:58:43

#178

IMO the very early cold outbreak in Northern America isn't good news for our patch this winter, I would have much preferred to see this cold shot hit Siberia and Scandy. Very early days for thinking about winter seeing as the weather is so glorious ATM, but my best guess would be a mild, windy and often cyclonic affair. And yes, it's only an ill-educated guess!

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Good to hear from you Jacko mate, not sure how you can say a cold outbreak in September in States favours a milder winter here?

We had fog this morning , sure sign of a December freeze up

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER

Hi Goon.
Good to talk pal, just emerging from my Summer slumber. I think these cold shots into the northern States could be a pre- cursor of things to come again this winter, leading to cylogenesis in the Atlantic and a never ending stream of storms and Westerlies. But I hear you say, what about the Scandy block that's forming now to our east. Could that be a pre-cursor of things to come for us? Well I would hazard a guess that cyclogenesis is a far more likely scenario than a Scandy. By the way, can anyone remember the last decent Scandy that delivered snow to the Uk? I remember them as a child at school in Nottingham in the 80's, very heavy snow showers and penetrating frosts for a couple of weeks. They sure don't make em as they used to!
Jacko

festivalking
Advanced Member

11 September 2014 21:19:59

#179

Probably suited to another forum but could this winter be one of the last that down south we get to see on the weather of Scotland. Would miss them talking about snow in the mountains or above 400 metres.

Dousland, Dartmoor 206 m/asl
Its only going to snow when Gibby says so.

Zubzero
Advanced Member

11 September 2014 21:44:23

#180

Probably suited to another forum but could this winter be one of the last that down south we get to see on the weather of Scotland. Would miss them talking about snow in the mountains or above 400 metres.

Originally Posted by: festivalking

Never thought of that, would be odd not having Scotland in the forecast.

They might send Carol kirkwood to bbc scotland to

Gooner
Advanced Member

11 September 2014 22:32:43

#181

Probably suited to another forum but could this winter be one of the last that down south we get to see on the weather of Scotland. Would miss them talking about snow in the mountains or above 400 metres.

Originally Posted by: Zubzero

Never thought of that, would be odd not having Scotland in the forecast.

They might send Carol kirkwood to bbc scotland to

Originally Posted by: festivalking

Now that would be a shame

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

tallyho_83
Advanced Member

12 September 2014 00:05:54

#182

I see we are yet again under a northern blocking setup..

If this were January we would be getting excited about some flurries in the SE :p

.. With of course the chance of some lows hitting the block and bringing widespread snow later in the period.

Doesn't mean much of course, but tentatively good signs for the winter ahead.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs

Indeed! Glad someone picked up on this...we have been under this blocking pattern (Scandi high) for over a week now.

Just imagine this below set up BUT in winter??

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.html

Edited by user 12 September 2014 00:07:32 | Reason: Not specified

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com

SEMerc
Guest

12 September 2014 00:11:53

#183

Probably suited to another forum but could this winter be one of the last that down south we get to see on the weather of Scotland. Would miss them talking about snow in the mountains or above 400 metres.

Originally Posted by: Zubzero

Never thought of that, would be odd not having Scotland in the forecast.

They might send Carol kirkwood to bbc scotland to

Originally Posted by: festivalking

Well if Carol stays in London we'll still get to see Scottish mountains.

Joe Bloggs
Advanced Member

12 September 2014 00:13:59

#184

Probably suited to another forum but could this winter be one of the last that down south we get to see on the weather of Scotland. Would miss them talking about snow in the mountains or above 400 metres.

Originally Posted by: SEMerc

Never thought of that, would be odd not having Scotland in the forecast.

They might send Carol kirkwood to bbc scotland to

Originally Posted by: Zubzero

Well if Carol stays in London we'll still get to see Scottish mountains.

Originally Posted by: festivalking

Hilarious 😃!!!

I've thought about another positive of Scottish independence. We don't need to feel guilty about forgetting about Aberdeen anymore. Sorry Doc.

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

ITSY
Guest

12 September 2014 14:04:09

#185

i'm on my girlfriends MAC so don't havethe faintest idea how to copy and paste, but the three month JMA is out upto and including December, and it paints a very cold picture for the Eastern half of the USA. Not sure about the implications for us, perhaps someone else can explain? the url is

ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

Gavin P
Advanced Member

12 September 2014 15:38:27

#186

i'm on my girlfriends MAC so don't havethe faintest idea how to copy and paste, but the three month JMA is out upto and including December, and it paints a very cold picture for the Eastern half of the USA. Not sure about the implications for us, perhaps someone else can explain? the url is

ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

Originally Posted by: ITSY

This is discussed in my video today.

Looks like the JS could be ehanced, but it's a long way off.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Gooner
Advanced Member

12 September 2014 16:19:51

#187

i'm on my girlfriends MAC so don't havethe faintest idea how to copy and paste, but the three month JMA is out upto and including December, and it paints a very cold picture for the Eastern half of the USA. Not sure about the implications for us, perhaps someone else can explain? the url is

ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

This is discussed in my video today.

Looks like the JS could be ehanced, but it's a long way off.

Originally Posted by: ITSY

Great

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Medlock Vale Weather
Advanced Member

12 September 2014 16:48:17

#188

Not sure how the below works in our favour or not! still plenty of time for things to change

http://farmersalmanac.com/weather/2014/08/24/2015-us-winter-forecast/

This video shows a NAO , not sure who this person is who presented the vid

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEHacM3oaKY

Edited by user 12 September 2014 16:50:44 | Reason: Not specified

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm

sriram
Advanced Member Topic Starter

12 September 2014 17:43:18

#189

What nobody knows is whether it' is good to get a Scandy High this early in the season for winter

Do patterns repeat themselves later on in winter - or is it a case where we are wasting the Scandy High now and will pay the price in winter the Atlantic dumping it's rubbish over us

Clutching at straws - didn't Sep 1984 1985 and 1986 all have settled anticyclonic spells and all those years had good winters - 1985 frequent snow, 1986 a severe cold Feb and 1987 a severe snowy spell

Edited by user 12 September 2014 17:45:00 | Reason: Info

Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL

Clem
Member

12 September 2014 22:24:55

#190

Evening all,
http://skepticalscience.com/jetstream-guide.html#ao-nao

I look forward to reading all your views and pointers this season in what I hope is a vast improvement on winter 13/14 (a frost would do!) with that pesky jet diving south through Europe, a nice -NAO, a lovely Scandy High and a continuation of the current northern blocking signals. I've just watched Gavin P's video review from the winter of 62/63 to whet my appetite and hope we get that little taster in December before the onset of a very cold Jan and Feb! 2010 was great even down here but I'd love long spell of cold and snow..... just for the kids obviously!!

Stormchaser
Advanced Member

13 September 2014 10:28:23

#191

http://skepticalscience.com/jetstream-guide.html#ao-nao I look forward to reading all your views and pointers this season in what I hope is a vast improvement on winter 13/14 (a frost would do!) with that pesky jet diving south through Europe, a nice -NAO, a lovely Scandy High and a continuation of the current northern blocking signals. I've just watched Gavin P's video review from the winter of 62/63 to whet my appetite and hope we get that little taster in December before the onset of a very cold Jan and Feb! 2010 was great even down here but I'd love long spell of cold and snow..... just for the kids obviously!!

Hi Clem, welcome to the forum

You remind me of how I got going 6 years ago after a year or so of 'lurking', enthusiasm always helps

Blocking to the NE has been unusually recurrent this year, but last winter, it was too far east to do us any good at all. Perhaps it will come down to how far west the blocking sets up shop... but if course that depends on how the Arctic patterns evolve both in the troposphere and stratopshere, and just how vigorous the Atlantic storms are, and so on.

It's never straight forward, but that's what makes it interesting!

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On

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