As I said on Twitter this morning at least the chance of snow in Britain this winter hasn't receded overnight! 

In the run-up to Dec 2009, we had a number of snow/graupel showers, and it left a covering of around 10cm. After some meltage and re-freezing, it was hard as a rock by Xmas Day, and our close was like an ice-rink (neighbours RWD BMW couldn't get up the slight incline of the pavement into his drive ) We got some sleet/rain on Boxing Day, which froze. IIRC, it was the 27th when the thaw set in here.

I remember Dec 2010 as being a bit of a worrying time because, although it was freezing, IMBY it was dry and, after seeing most of the rest of the UK getting heavy snow, I was increasingly convinced I'd miss out. There were a few frustrations when fronts forecast a few days in advance didn't materialise. 

The snow finally moved in on Fri 17th. The forecast was for a couple of cm's here - by that time, I'd have taken anything. Started snowing on my way home from work. I remember heading westwards down the M62 with that heavy sky overhead and the first flakes appearing in the lights, getting heavier as I got closer to home. By the time I got to my house, it was pelting it down with big flakes and there was already a covering on all surfaces; the freezing temps & bone dry conditions preceeding it were perfect for instant settling. By around 7.30pm, we wrapped the kids up and went out as a family for a walk, stopping at some friends for a pre-Christmas drink. All the while the snow fell heavily.

By the time it stopped at around 10pm, we had around 15cm level snow. This stayed - and in largely excellent condition, due to the extreme low temps - until a fair few days after Xmas when the thaw set in. I remember us all going to a country pub for a meal on Xmas Eve, on the road from here to Southport, about 7 miles NNW from MBY. The snow was at least 20cm here and it was a scene I'll remember for the rest of my life - a totally Xmas Card vision of a pub nestled into a snowy rural scene, warm lights shining from its windows and smoke rising from its chimneys.

IMO, even though we didn't get as many individual snow events in 2010 as 2009, the snow was deeper and better. Coupled with the amazing month in general, 2010 wins it hands down.

Aye - was quite a spectacle that week.  I remember my staff xmass do was in liverpool on that friday night.  I remember looking out of the window i San carlos in liverpool looking at the snow and knowing it was the heaviest snowfall i had seen in quite a while.  The few days after were lovely too.  quite funny what you said about the ice skating rink a few days after- because this is most of what i remember of it.  It was like wet marble everywhere.  save a couple or grids which didnt freeze and gave islands of grip amongst yards of wet ice.

We dont often get snowfalls like that, so to have it fall at xmas was something very speciall indeed.

i remember the system spiralled south and hit London the next day blanketing the country.

Winter 2008-2009 was quite good with a few decent snow events and we had a great dumping in the February with some drifting of the snow from an easterly.

Winter 2009-2010 was overall fantastic - had multiple snow events from December right through February and most of them were decent snow events culminating with over 30cm on 4-5th January 2010, the most here since 1996, it was not far off knee deep in the big open fields here. And I recorded -17.7C. The lowest since I've had my weather station.

Winter 2010-2011 was not as good IMO, late November - December was great and if you can count November in that then the build up to December 2010 was memorable, I was a 'lurker' on here then and the anticipation was huge from the regular posters purely because of the depth of cold early in the season. We had a good dump of snow on the last evening of November into the first day of December and woke up to some minor drifting too, probably had about 15cm level snow overnight ,then some more snow around the same depths further into December........ but January and Februray were unremarkable and boring compared to late November - December. Late Winter was a disappointment.

Winter 2011-2012 was average and better than some Winters before 2008, we had a light snow fall mid month December of around 5cm.... then that was it until 4th February when we had a good 10+cm and a few ice days in early Feb. Overall an average balanced Winter.

Winter 2012-2013 was better in terms of snowfall, but took a while to get going and we finally had good a couple of good dumps in January with one around 15cm and the other a bit less. Then more in February of similar depths and who could forget the depth of cold in March (not meteorologically Winter but it was fu*king cold enough) with more snowfalls in that month. Quite comparable in terms of snow with Winter 2008-2009. Maybe 2012-2013 edging it slightly better.

Winter 2013-2014 was very poor, just one tiny snowfall that accumulated on all surfaces during the evening of 11th Feb, it was gone by around 10am the next morning. We was lucky to even get that when many low level places never seen a flake the whole Winter. 

Current snow & ice cover and there is a few blobs now across Siberia, but looking at the forecasts over the next 10-12 days I expect the white to become a bit more widespread in that area.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20140901/2cat_20140901_z500_months46_global_deter_public.png

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20140901/2cat_20140901_mslp_months46_global_deter_public.png

That's about as dreary as it gets from a cold perspective - kind of like taking last winter and shifting the storm track north to produce somthing along the lines of 2006/7.

...man, I hate to have to mention that persistently mild, often rainy winter, in which December managed a mere 11 hours of sunshine. In fact the mildest, dullest winter I have recorded . The rainfall total is 4th highest, but only 4.1mm short of the 2nd highest, so yeah - it rained a fair bit too.

Hopefully the Met Office ensemble will fall wide of the mark this season. It did terribly last season from this sort of range; the signal was for a winter of extensive northern blocking and trougs in the Med - a cold/snow lovers dream:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/2cat_20130901_z500_months46_global_deter_public.png

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/2cat_20130901_mslp_months46_global_deter_public.png

For what it's worth, the model is going for October-December to be similar to the Dec-Feb prediction, but without the negative height anomaly over Scandinavia - a gradual breakdown of the Sceuro blocking perhaps?

Not that 2-4 month predictions have fared that well at times in the past either:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20131101/2cat_20131101_mslp_months24_global_deter_public.png

That, I'm afraid, is about as far wrong as it is possible to be. Even PC would blush...

This is truly wrist slashing stuff if it pans out.

Ah, should have thought of that given how much trouble I usually have locating it in my vast array of bookmarked pages 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

I can only see anomaly data there, which I agree does limit what can be interpreted. It doesn't even give the anomaly period used 

Interesting the TWO White Christmas Countdown is going head to head, Two suggesting the South has a better chance of a White Christmas due to the anticyclonic trends showing, the computer says different however.

All JFF as Gooner would say

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

Anyone notice a pattern with Autumn 2009?

Notice average or cooler than average over N. Atlantic for the majority of the time!? - Run the sequence from 2-4 months 3-5 months and to 4-6 months:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

I've seen the warm + dry October = cold winter idea appear again in the MOD thread (wrong place for it by the way...).

Although I don't have that many years to work with (2003-2013), my third and fourth mildest winters followed the only two warm+dry Octobers in my series, which suggests that the proposed relationship is a bit hit and miss and weak overall, if it exists at all.

I seem to recall that Roger did some analysis last season which came up with a very weak relationship, not sure though.

Interesting to see the El Nino Modoki being considered, as that has come up a few times in recent months as a potential driver of high-latitude blocking this winter.

Prior to December 2010, there was a dramatic switch from an El Nino Modoki to a strong La Nina. The atmosphere might have taken a little while to catch up with that change, so perhaps that El Nino played a role in generating December 2010's extraordinary blocking pattern.

Currently, the long range models are generally going for a lot of UK-trough action this coming winter. Until that high latitude blocking started being modelled, it was looking like another mobile pattern for the winter, in fact similar to last winter, with the storm track south of normal but not tending to slow down enough for more than transient cold spells.

Increasingly, though, the outlooks are showing the potential for the pattern to grind to a halt, with stalled low pressure systems and blocking to the N, NW and/or NE having a direct influence on the UK's weather.

The negative 500m height anomalies haven't really shifted south much in response, but they look sufficient for some interesting storm tracks, as surface lows often begin life somewhere to the SW of the associated 500m troughs, and could face strong resistence from blocking highs to the N and NE, perhaps pulling cold continental air into the mix... with a bit of luck.

The SST-based prediction is particularly interesting, as I believe that the current situation of anomalously low SSTs around the Azores and anomalously warm SSTs to the SW, S and SE of that region has been a primary factor in driving trough development in the middle of the North Atlantic over the past few months, producing the frequent Atlantic trough + Euro/Scandi High combinations that we've seen.

Take that on into winter, add a driving force to enhance the blocking from Greenland to Svalbard, and you've got a recipe for storms tracking into Iberia/the Med. and interacting with cold continental air near or over the UK.

The presence of blocking across the NE U.S. is a total contrast to last winter's setup.

Another factor is the QBO, which was westerly last year and detrimental to blocking, but looks to be easterly this year, favouring blocking. I can't pretend to understand the mechanisms of this at this time though - it wasn't a part of my studies this year. Sounds good for a cold winter though 

With all this in mind, one has to wonder what reasoning lies behind the Met Office ensemble mean prediction posted a couple of days ago. Or is it just a bit behind on developments? I guess next month will tell!

That looks like a continuation of the current SST anomaly pattern, as I've described above 

As a bottom line, it seems like a lot of factors are looking to be pretty much the reverse of what we had last winter. Could we therefore see a reverse of fortunes here in the UK? No guarantee, but promising to say the least!

back for the next few months, let the roller coaster begin.

looking a tad fresh, would anyone REALLY wish for  8/9 months of sub zero and ice....I love the cold and snow but in equal measure I really welcome the warmth and sun, long may summer continue...http://www.kimmirutweather.com/

Oh, a couple of names spring to mind  

Personally, I'd be more than happy with a Dec 10 coupled with shorter (7 day?) cold/snowy spells in Jan, Feb & Mar

Ideally for me it would start in September, absolutely brutal with frequent blizzards with blowing & drifting snow and last until mid May with very little if any thaw, then a brief very quick warm up with Summer conditions before we get plunged back into "Winter" in September. No real seasons apart from a brief Summer and a very long brutal Winter.

Never going to happen in this country but hey! 

Law of averages implies that this extroadinary run of warm weather must come to an end soon.  Who knows, it could coincide with this winter.  One of the things that is bothering me a bit is the high solar activity relative to the past few years (although still low compared to the previous solar cycle)

David

Hi all,

Terry Scholey has dropped in with some thoughts for the rest of autumn and Winter 14/15

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

Hope you find this interesting.

Yup

All of the above will do