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Dougie
  • Dougie
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
15 September 2014 05:44:47

The days of unreliable forecasts could be over - as the Met Office has started using a computer programme so powerful it can foretell the weather across every mile of the country. 

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2755203/New-Met-Office-supercomputer-end-forecasting-gaffes-predicting-localised-cloudbursts-black-ice-areas-previously-small-pinpoint.html#ixzz3DMOBdU74 
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Ha'way the lads
Matty H
15 September 2014 06:00:40
A typically shoddy, inaccurate and worthless piece of journalism, other than it tells us the Met Office have a new system.
GIBBY
15 September 2014 07:53:10

What a load of tosh. Yes no doubt the new computer will aid the prediction of weather somewhat but I totally disagree that the Met Office got the flooding risk wrong last Winter. It was well forecast down here (weeks) in advance and was only catastrophic because of the sheer volume of water and nowhere for it to go due to the fact that River dredging had not been done for years meaning it's not the fault of an incorrect forecast from the Met. Of course if you talking about seasonal predictions from months ahead then this computer will probably be as unreliable as the last as the weather has a habit of kicking us in the teeth at times two days ahead let alone months. If I hadn't of looked closer I would of thought it was taken from the Express. In any event I think the column can be disregarded again as it is just another reason to have a dig at the Met rather than a revolutionary breakthrough in forecasting accuracy.


Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset



Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
Jonesy
15 September 2014 10:51:22


What a load of tosh.


Originally Posted by: GIBBY 


Did someone mention tosh and weather



Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
lanky
15 September 2014 13:21:52

This is the Met Office's own article about this new software, ENDGAME


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/barometer/science/2014-08/ENDGame


It already wins first prize for me in the category of worst reverse engineered acronym ever


"Even Newer Dynamics for General Atmospheric Modelling of the Environment"


but it is a close race between this and the even higher resolution successor to be launched in a few years, Gung Ho


"Globally Uniform Next Generation Highly Optimized"


 


The ENDGame article states this will be used "across all weather and climate timescales" implying that they will be resurrecting some sort of long range (seasonal ?) forecasting that they dumped after the 2009 Barbecue Summer


I'm afraid my belief is that this sort of forecasting is impossible with mathematical models however high def they may be. IMO the weather is too chaotic to predict much more than 7-10 days ahead


You only need to look at the LRF synoptics produced by CFS models etc to see how it turns on it's head every couple of days as the output draws a map of the noise generated by the models and not much else


 


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
turbotubbs
15 September 2014 14:27:38


This is the Met Office's own article about this new software, ENDGAME


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/barometer/science/2014-08/ENDGame


It already wins first prize for me in the category of worst reverse engineered acronym ever


"Even Newer Dynamics for General Atmospheric Modelling of the Environment"


but it is a close race between this and the even higher resolution successor to be launched in a few years, Gung Ho


"Globally Uniform Next Generation Highly Optimized"


 


The ENDGame article states this will be used "across all weather and climate timescales" implying that they will be resurrecting some sort of long range (seasonal ?) forecasting that they dumped after the 2009 Barbecue Summer


I'm afraid my belief is that this sort of forecasting is impossible with mathematical models however high def they may be. IMO the weather is too chaotic to predict much more than 7-10 days ahead


You only need to look at the LRF synoptics produced by CFS models etc to see how it turns on it's head every couple of days as the output draws a map of the noise generated by the models and not much else


 


Originally Posted by: lanky 


You obviously don't work in NMR (nuclear magnetic resonance) then - my own favourite is called INADEQUATE. This comes from Incredible Natural Abundance DoublE QUAntum Transfer Experiment. NMR is full of acronyms, most of which seem to have been concocted to fit a 'cool' acronym, but this one is superb, and fittingly is also acurate as the technique is mostly useless except in highly unusual situations... Inadequate indeed!

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