Seasonal outlook by weather Online:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=206&FILE=sea&DAY=20140915

This dry warm weather won't last for ever!

Another shift in emphasis from the models in this morning's output when compared with those yesterday morning. Here's my morning thoughts.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014091800/UW96-21.GIF?18-06

UKMO and GFS have this for day 4.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014091800/ECM1-96.GIF

ECM has this. The ridge stands taller as the jet doesn't take such a flat path.

That has big impacts down the road in terms of how the Atlantic troughs interact with one another; GFS and UKMO shift the leading trough into Scandi days 5-6, while ECM holds it back and has it phase with an upstream trough to create a singal strong trough feature, which pushes into Scandi days 8-10 and, due to its large size, brings a large warm sector through the UK - which means a fast moving warm front followed by blustery conditions with a lot of cloud.

That differs to the GFS and UKMO solution, in which the earlier transition of a trough to Scandi without phasing with any other feature results in a brief warm sector followed by a brief period in a cooler polar maritime airstream.

Despite this short to medium term disagreement, both ECM and GFS continue to show that upstream amplification days 9-10, with a marked ridge displacing into Europe from the Azores and the potential for another push of very warm air up to the UK.

ECM's day 10 chart is tantallising as it hints at something akin to the Sep-Oct transition period in 2011.

GEM continues to be a wild card this morning, with a split jet scenario instead of everthing blasting NE, this in place as early as da 4 so an unusual time to have such disparity. The impacts down the line generate a setup more like what we have at the moment:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/archives/2014091800/gem-0-168.png

It sure would be an embarrising moment for the other models if the split-jet turned out to be the way forward 

On that basis I reckon we might be looking at a CET of 16C for this month.

That was a much better spell with wall to wall sunshine but after this very disappointing week with overcast polluted skies doesn't make me feel confident of seeing clear blue skies again.  Despite of all the talk of 25C it only managed 22 yestrerday thanks to the polluted overcast skies until evening when the sun came out which is no point and don't understand why it came out very late?

Overall is been a rubbish month compare to past Septembers when we had many sunny clear days and the latest models for HP doesn't excite me if bring more polluted skies. 

For once I agree with you.

Bring on the Atlantic.

Oh Ian, man up!

ECM's day 10 chart is tantallising as it hints at something akin to the Sep-Oct transition period in 2011.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

That was a much better spell with wall to wall sunshine but after this verydisappointing week with overcast polluted skies doesn't make me feel confident of seeing clear blue skies again. Despite of all the talk of 25C it only managed 22 yestrerday thanks to the polluted overcast skies until evening when the sun came out which is no point and don't understand why it came out very late? Overall is been a rubbish month compare to past Septembers when we had many sunny clear days and the latest models for HP doesn't excite me if bring more polluted skies.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

For once I agree with you. Bring on the Atlantic.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Wind and rain appeals to you how exactly? 😕 Gorgeous day again here today. A few more to come yet

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

At least with the Atlantic you get good spells of sunshine inbetween the weather systems unlike now with the gloom moving in once more.

A downgrade in temps tomorrow, yesterday it were showing 28C for the SE tomorrow, looks more like 25C at the most now. Still very respectable for past mid September.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014091812/nmmuk-0-27-0.png?18-19

Last proper warm day on Saturday in the SE

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014091812/nmmuk-0-50-0.png?18-19

Cool air sweeping south on Sunday morning.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014091812/nmmuk-0-66-0.png?18-19

And by afternoon very warm weather has gone, could be near 10C drop for some of us compared with Saturday.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014091812/nmmuk-0-72-0.png?18-19

ECM's day 10 chart is tantallising as it hints at something akin to the Sep-Oct transition period in 2011.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

That was a much better spell with wall to wall sunshine but after this verydisappointing week with overcast polluted skies doesn't make me feel confident of seeing clear blue skies again. Despite of all the talk of 25C it only managed 22 yestrerday thanks to the polluted overcast skies until evening when the sun came out which is no point and don't understand why it came out very late? Overall is been a rubbish month compare to past Septembers when we had many sunny clear days and the latest models for HP doesn't excite me if bring more polluted skies.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

For once I agree with you. Bring on the Atlantic.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Wind and rain appeals to you how exactly? 😕 Gorgeous day again here today. A few more to come yet

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

At least with the Atlantic you get good spells of sunshine inbetween the weather systems unlike now with the gloom moving in once more.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

I don't remember much in the way of your good spells of sunshine during last winter's relentless Atlantic bombardment.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Last winter was exceptional though in terms of rainfall records.

Yeah, I have to say that although dry is good (for me) this week has been awful. No sunshine, low cloud, featureless skies.

The main issue in tonight's output seems to be how far east the Atlantic troughs are able to progress prior to the upstream amplification that tilts the jet SW-NE in 5-6 days time.

GFS has by far the most progression eastward, and GEM the least, with ECM sat squarely in between. JMA shows a variant on the ECM solution so I guess that's the safest bet at this stage, though to be honest I wouldn't be placing money on any of the output tonight!

I'm hoping to see something as close to today's GEM 12z op run as possible, because the setup that evolves is just exceptional, and I believe offers pretty much the last chance of a few fine and very warm days before the large scale setup shifts in favour of an Atlantic bombardment - though of course that expectation is also based on current singals and subject to change!

Good morning Two'ers. Here's this morning's daily view from me of current output.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Hope the next HP cell coming in on Sunday to bring sunny weather as I haven't see sun rise for weeks here and still polluted with yellowish smog.  If so I am glad to see the back of this supposed to be warm spell that failed to impress with little to no sunshine days. 

For the most part, each model has stuck to its own solution this morning - it's clear that conditions will become unsettled across the north and more changeable across the south, but any details will have to wait a bit longer to be sorted out.

Until then, it looks pretty good Sunday and into next week, with a ridge across the UK and some clearer, fresher air to be enjoyed. It looks a bit chilly Sunday night with the risk of frost, but beyond that time the air looks to become increasingly martime - gradually more humid again with a bit more cloud around, as a long fetch of air from the middle of the Atlantic becomes established. It ought to feel very British indeed!

Looks like extended 'Summer' might continue with above average 850's and very little rain, apart from the next 24-48 hrs the chance of some rain (and even then it's not widespread) but overall it's looking like remaining remarkably dry for the most part and temps above average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

The ridge looks ever more resilliant across southern areas next week. At this rate it will be fine and dry down here for the most part and perhaps turning warm again later in the week, depending on the orientation of the jet stream and how much clear sky there is.

A displacement of the Azores High into Europe is then the most widely supported outcome for next weekend onward, though ECM doesn't produce the trough digging south to achieve that on its 12z op run so there's cause for uncertainty as usual