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jamesthemonkeh
13 September 2014 08:02:26

I see there are chances of thunderstorms late next week showing up on the models.


I don't normally associate thunderstorms with September - how common is this?


Does anyone have figures on average days with thunder per month in the UK?


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 September 2014 08:17:09

Don't know about averages, but you can certainly get dramatic thundery weather in September


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/3/2/Southeast_England_Floods_-_15_September_1968.pdf


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
schmee
13 September 2014 10:07:11
17c cloudy.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
sriram
13 September 2014 10:52:58
I have mentioned this before

There were severe thunderstorms in Sep 1992 one night

Don't know the date - all I know it was the time of the Lib Dem party conference that year
Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
nsrobins
17 September 2014 06:50:30
Indeed the chances of an unstable push from the south late Thursday are increasing, with some models developing storms into the South from 21Z Thurs.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
GIBBY
17 September 2014 12:30:22

Thunderstorms are fairly common in September as there is still a lot of heat to our South at this early stage of Autumn to push them our way if conditions are favourable which looks possible late this week. Probably going to be a bit hit and miss though.


Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset



Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
Gavin P
17 September 2014 13:27:36

I have mentioned this before There were severe thunderstorms in Sep 1992 one night Don't know the date - all I know it was the time of the Lib Dem party conference that year

Originally Posted by: sriram 


September 1992 stands out in my mind as well - Was a Thurday night/Friday morning!


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
lanky
17 September 2014 14:26:16


Don't know about averages, but you can certainly get dramatic thundery weather in September


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/3/2/Southeast_England_Floods_-_15_September_1968.pdf


 


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Certainly was - I was living in Bromley at the time.


Really more like a long sequence of Thunderstorms interspersed with heavy rain lasting from about 11PM on yje Saturday to 5PM on the Sunday


Goes down as one of the top weather events in my memory



Martin
Richmond, Surrey
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 September 2014 20:28:39

While I think of it, here's another big September thunderstorm


http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/47563-5th-september-1958-hailstorms/


The same storm holds the record two-hour rainfall for the UK of 131mm, at Knockholt, Kent. 


I can remember this one, living at Orpington,  only a few miles from Knockholt, at the time. Low yellowish clouds moving very rapidly, continual lightning and torrential rain which caused flash floods and tookvast amounts of earth of fields and into roads. For those who know the area, Addington Lane was about 3 inches dep in silt the next morning. 


But the most amazing thing was that after a couple of hours of downpour, the wind having been strong SE, it suddenly dropped and a small patch of blue sky appeared. Half an hour later, the wind was back, but from the NW, and it was raining hard again. I've been told that this sort of thing doesn't happen in Britain - but I saw it!


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
GIBBY
18 September 2014 07:30:21

Some storms rumbling away in the Channel this morning Northwest of the Channel Islands with developments extending into Cornwall and Devon soon.


Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset



Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
picturesareme
18 September 2014 08:21:04
Thunderstorms in September are just as common as storms in July down here.

Cloud just off the coast look very dark, not sure if it's fog or torrential rain but visibility is poor. Think I heard a rumble if thunder about 5 minutes ago.
nsrobins
18 September 2014 08:30:00

Thunderstorms in September are just as common as storms in July down here. Cloud just off the coast look very dark, not sure if it's fog or torrential rain but visibility is poor. Think I heard a rumble if thunder about 5 minutes ago.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


You did. A few storms quickly developing SE of the IOW - recent sferics. A few more into Cornwall.


The action ramps up later with a line of storms developing across the South from midnight.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
picturesareme
18 September 2014 08:30:01
Confirmed thunderstorm just off the southeast coast of the isle of white!

Check out the netweather radar, that thing has literally exploded over 30 minutes. From nothing to a massive storm.

Rapid development going on down here this morning!!
picturesareme
18 September 2014 08:32:24

Thunderstorms in September are just as common as storms in July down here. Cloud just off the coast look very dark, not sure if it's fog or torrential rain but visibility is poor. Think I heard a rumble if thunder about 5 minutes ago.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


You did. A few storms quickly developing SE of the IOW - recent sferics. A few more into Cornwall.
The action ramps up later with a line of storms developing across the South from midnight.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



Sorry I didn't refresh before posting again and missed your post.

This storm we have here at the moment is intensifying still I think. Will look foreword to tonight's activity... I hope it arrives an hour earlier so I can get some photos.
Stormchaser
18 September 2014 08:35:20

The satellite imagery this morning sure seems to suggest that thunderstorms may develop somewhat more readily than forecast today.


Euro-4 continues to show little activity until tomorrow morning, yet already a new cell has formed near Portsmouth and there are a few areas of new convection building across Northern France too.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
picturesareme
18 September 2014 08:39:00
Rapidly developing but moving very slowly!! The IOW is getting a pasting at the moment, it's obscured by the rain from my view in southsea. Current dry here but frequent thunder.
nsrobins
18 September 2014 08:52:46

Ok thunder to my South here - shotgun 'canon' waveform indicating elevated base (the percussion reaches you directly from above and is cleaner without interference from topography, etc). Every 20s or so at the moment.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
picturesareme
18 September 2014 09:07:28
Cracking start to the morning :-)

Lightning striking within a miles distance, with open water near me and nothing to displace shock waves, windows have vibrated 🙂
nsrobins
18 September 2014 09:22:17

Torrential rain started here - very large drops - from a side-shooter developing to the NE of the main cell.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Stormchaser
18 September 2014 10:24:07

http://www.meteocenter.eu/fajli/index.php?domain=euNMM12km&region=EU&forecast=KPrecip&time=21


Like Euro4, WRF has totally missesd the Solent storm, but unlike Euro4 it develops some cells across Southern England this afternoon.


http://www.meteocenter.eu/fajli/index.php?domain=euNMM12km&region=EU&forecast=KPrecip&time=24


This looks interesting but implies that development doesn't occur soon enough to affect locations as far south as where I am - but this morning's storms give reason to hope that storms might develop more rapidly than shown.


 


Tomorrow looks even more interesting:


http://www.meteocenter.eu/fajli/index.php?domain=euNMM12km&region=EU&forecast=KPrecip&time=45


An organised band of convective precipitation advancing north. Fizzles out during the evening though.


 


A part of me was hoping for a totally dry month to go in the record books, but it would take something extraordinary to shut out my enthusiam for convective storms!


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Stormchaser
18 September 2014 10:28:32

The links in my above post don't seem to be working 


http://www.meteocenter.eu/WRF-forecast/EU/Europe.html#model


Have a look under convective precipitation here and you'll see what I was on about 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 September 2014 11:07:12


The links in my above post don't seem to be working 


http://www.meteocenter.eu/WRF-forecast/EU/Europe.html#model


Have a look under convective precipitation here and you'll see what I was on about 


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Interestingly different from the MetO, which has earlier development and then clears the storms away northwards into the Welsh borders rather than having them sticking around the M4


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map/gcp3nqsgd#?map=Rainfall&fcTime=1411095600&zoom=8&lon=-1.10&lat=51.65


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
idj20
18 September 2014 11:21:04



The links in my above post don't seem to be working 


http://www.meteocenter.eu/WRF-forecast/EU/Europe.html#model


Have a look under convective precipitation here and you'll see what I was on about 


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Interestingly different from the MetO, which has earlier development and then clears the storms away northwards into the Welsh borders rather than having them sticking around the M4


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map/gcp3nqsgd#?map=Rainfall&fcTime=1411095600&zoom=8&lon=-1.10&lat=51.65


 


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 



And how the Kent storm deflector is back up and running again, so it seems.  But it does all fit in line with my own forecast anyway.


Folkestone Harbour. 
picturesareme
18 September 2014 16:21:12
Looks like a Tsar Bomb has been detonated to my north, and few puny anvils for good measure.
JimC
  • JimC
  • Advanced Member
18 September 2014 18:19:38

Just had a flash of lightning and a clap of loudish thunder, strange we had nothing on the radar half an hour ago so looks to be building over us, no rain as yet though.

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