As Matty says there seems to be no indication of a major breakdown anytime soon - other than slight blips high pressure is never far away on the GFS. As we move into early October High pressure seems to re-assert its self over the UK, it's a bit of long way off meteorologically speaking but who knows, we seem to be having extremes of prolonged unsettled weather and then it shifts to prolonged settled weather. The ground is solid & bone dry round here. Almost dusty  Would be nice to see a change though soon.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014092112/gfs-0-288.png?12

Uppers are not too shabby either for October.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014092112/gfs-1-288.png?12

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

A vast ridge offered by ECM for day 6 and warm for the south in particular 

What? You want bigger? Okay then...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

The Azores High is fully merged with the HP across the UK in this version offered by UKMO 

Eh? Where's the intensity? Alright then, you asked for it:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014092112/gem-0-240.png?12

That there's just about the mightiest area of HP I've ever seen progged over Central Europe. There's also a lot of warmth, with the 10*C 850hPa isotherm encompassing a large portion of the UK.

Given that GFS has also come up with a vast ridge across Europe, albeit a number of days later in time, something major seems to be attempting to unfold... but somewhat unsurprisingly ECM is trying to trash the party by having the jet perform a dramatic u-turn around the incoming ridge, driving a trough into Scandi and preventing the supersized HP from evolving.

ECM has modelled such things in error rather often this year, but despite this, I'm prepared for a low of some kind to get in the way one way or another... just like when we're seeking a high-latitude block in winter 

Dry and warm - odd chilly night seems a reasonable assessment

Why would you want a change? After the Winter we had last year the longer this continues the better

Good morning folks. Here's my assessment of the 00zs this cold morning.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Indeed, the only danger is that wet and windy begins in November and doesn't leave until March   However no two winters are ever the same so hopefully at least one decent shot of cold this year, back to the MO and interesting charts this morning. If this verifies it's another failed forecast from the JMA (JMA Fridays) as that was predicting a break down late September / early October before pressure rising again later this month.  Slight tweaking of those HP cells and you could be looking at some very warm spells come October - unlikely to equal the record set a couple of years ago but never say never.

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140922/06/252/h850t850eu.png

These massive HP cells keep cropping up... now on the GFS 06z run, which is actually very close to the UKMO 00z run days 4-6.

ECM seems to be all alone in amplifying the pattern strongly days 9 and 10. Given that the 7-8 day charts this morning are less amplified than they were yesterday, I suspect we'll end up with a flatter solution that promotes HP through Europe rather than up towards Svalbard - though it may not work out so smoothly as the GFS and UKMO runs are now showing.

GEM is close to UKMO and the GFS 06z run to day 6, but then has a shortwave into Scandi causing some issues, a bit like yesterdays ECM 12z op run but with the low a weaker feature and HP from the south being thrown back across the UK days 9 and 10 as storms in the mid-Atlantic power NE - the main jet remains well NW of the UK, in line with the GFS and UKMO output.

this being the case would spell a perfect autumn for me.  Warm and dry (with the odd rainy day acceptable) then a quick turn to lower temps, before the first snowy cold spell before Xmas preferably when im meeting friends for meals and xmas shopping in Advent. 

I just like a change, everyone has a preference.

Not so sure that is true alot of the time in regards to an early Russian Winter, last Winter started early in Russia. I think the earliest most widespread snow cover in Siberia for 10 years. And what happened to our "Winter?" 

The other issue is that in hoping for 'classic' set-ups, i.e. conditons that give the UK great winter weather (depending on location, and for Matty and others, preference) people often overlook other types of set-up. We don't just get snow if we have a Scandinavian high for instance, and for those in the South we can't just bet everything on a channel low. In truth the whole lrf is a mess.

That said I was idly wondering about classic folklore (and by implication weatherlore). As a scientist I don't believe that nature can predict the future but I did get to wondering about weather patterns and how a pattern that gives rise to a phenomena in the spring/summer/autumn might correlate downstream to a winter pattern. This might be a mechanism for 'lots of berries' = hard winter...

Probably just clutching at straws, but that is no worse than any other lrf I've seen!

With each new GFS run seeming to produce even more sensational charts regarding long-fetch southerlies and unseasonable warmth, here's a little look at what drives this major broad-scale synoptic development:

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140922/12/147/h850t850eu.png

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140922/12/147/hgt300.png

Day 6, we have a strong, flat jet raging across the U.S. and starting to exert influence on the Atlantic, and a low pressure system positioned NW of the Azores, in a prime position to exploit the incoming jet energy and rapdily intensify.

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140922/12/171/h850t850eu.png

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140922/12/171/hgt300.png

Day 7, the storm system has deepened substantially, and acts to buckle the jet in the mid-Atlantic. Where the jet slows, marked upper air convergence occurs, driving subsidence from the upper levels down to the surface and hence increasing pressure over the UK, in turn tilting the jet SW-NE, which then further builds the ridge, and so on...

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140922/12/252/h850t850eu.png

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140922/12/252/hgt300.png

Day 11, the above processes are reinforced by a sharp trough in the jet near to the Azores - a truly immense blocking high stands strong.

The LP to the SW does lift N during the following few days, but the resulting WAA reinforces the block yet further, meaning that even 16 days from now, it's still driving our weather:

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140922/12/372/h850t850eu.png

Yep - that's two very long fetch southerlies in one GFS lower-res period (days 9-16).

Staggering stuff, but it all comes down to that storm system on day 6 being able to rapidly intensify as the strong jet out of the U.S. interacts with it. This has been predicted consistently across the past few GFS runs.

UKMO seems to have the pieces in the right place on day 6:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/archives/2014092212/UW144-21.GIF

In fact the HP is just a little stronger at this stage, which would help with developing the strong block days 7-10 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014092212/gem-0-240.png?12

GEM doesn't build the HP north and east so readily, but still produces that strong pressure build - just more UK-based. Looks very good going forward from there if you like settled October weather with the potential for a true Indian Summer depending on mist and fog amounts.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/archives/2014092212/J192-21.GIF

JMA has the storm system on day 6 positioned a bit further south before interaction with the jet. This results in an even stronger build of HP - what a chart that is for day 8! 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014092212/ECM1-192.GIF

ECM follows suit and is a marked improvement on the preceding few runs from a warmth perspective 

ecm looks like a classic omega block to me at 10 days, now if right with that energy to our n/w and the jet heading ne that block would take some shifting you can see that nicely here

classic greek letter shape on that block and ridge.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Not much shift in the High pressure dominated pattern this morning. Here is my take on the 00zs.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Nice as it sounds for cold weather fans in all my years I haven't seen too much evidence to support that.

Meanwhile the ECM 10 Day Mean suggests High pressure to the East and a unseasonably warm Southerly drift up over the UK in 10 Days time

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

2012 october was,nt it a indian summer ???  new year 2013 very cold jan/feb maybe wrong... anyway charts looking stonking for october month perfect weather for me, just fingers cross for a decent winter this year,,, and some weather activitiy

I wonder what daytime temperatures we'll get from that.

No, it was 2011 that had a very hot start to October, with 29.9C on the 1st. The following winter had some cold snaps but wasn't exceptional. (Some pretty cold minima in February 2012 though as I recall).

October 2012 was wet and cold.

Got to be good for 25C+ if that comes off.

My firewood pile won't be going down until well into November at this rate...