The latest update on the WeatherPro app shows a forecast of 94mm of rain in Basingstoke between Monday and Thursday of next week including 41mm on Monday alone. No doubt that is overstating things a bit and is somewhat higher than recent runs but nevertheless it looks like a return to quite wet weather is at hand. Apart from September this has been one of the wettest years on record so far.

We may get some rain in the last TWO hours of September. In This area...

A change to a much more seasonal period up and coming from the models this morning with low pressure easing down from the NW next week

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

So here's the scenario for the early stages of next week - a trough centered over or just west of the UK, with a showery return polar maritime airflow affecting the majority of us. Temperatures near or a little below average for the most part.

High pressure continues to feature across Scandinavia and is also developing to our NW. This latter area could have implications for how the trough situation evolves down the line, as it brings a flow of cold Arctic air down the western flank of the low pressure system.

This is likely to result in a secondary low developing in that area, but how soon and to what extent this happens is currently anyone's guess.

ECM has it occurring within just a day or so - two days sooner than GFS does - and to a great enough extent to shift the overall trough complex westward as the secondary low combines with the primary low:

It's also managed to elongate the trough SSW-NNE, which is the sort of detail highly subject to change in future runs. As it is, this run has the resulting plume of warmth pushing NNE and giving the UK a glancing blow. With the low pressure so close by, there's a real risk of copious rainfall if this sort of thing verifies. It would probably feel a bit like the passing of a system containing the remnants of an ex-tropical cyclone.

That's one thing notably absent from the model output... we usually see some ex-tropical cyclones in the mix to shake things up, but this year the tropical Atlantic appears to be a total graveyard for tropical cyclones.

One again, that means a lot of potential energy for non-tropical storms, just like last year - hopefully other broad-scale driving forces will work to prevent the Atlantic storm factory from relentlessly exporting to the UK this time around.

Some remarkable northern blocking on the 06Z GFS for early October. Despite this parts of Central Europe could see some very warm air pumped up from the South, the persistant low pressure near the UK could yield very high rainfall totals if we are in the wrong place.

^^^^^^^

Looks like snow cover will continue to build up quickly across central and eastern Russia.

Indeed pretty much perfect synoptics for early snow cover and with a good amount of support for it as well.

It will be interesting to see if ECM output becomes a recurring theme as it builds up some impressive late heat towards the UK. The GFS 12Z shifts everything a touch east though.

By Saturday only the SE hangs onto the warmer uppers. As cooler air comes in from the W/NW.

This cold front really is a thing of beauty

As the model runs go by this thing keeps getting more ominous. We have a source of really warm moist air now, interacting with a very sharply defined front, this is a front that you will not forget for a while. The cold air is undercutting so cleanly that when it goes by the skies will clear to the point where there are no clouds at all. The front itself may even have thunderstorms on it, particularly in the SW to the right of the secondary low. Now, unfortunately the warm belt rising over a warm front is not something N england will appreciate, instead of band of short lived heavy rain followed by glorius sunshine we will have to put up with hours of more continuous and often lighter rain.

You make it sound like Armageddon, BBC weather site outlook for Saturday shows two hours of rain from 6am to 8am then some showers.
13C as opposed to 14C tomorrow

I didn't, I am not saying this is going to be severe weather, all I'm saying is that it will be a very notable feature, and one of the most notable features is how quickly the rain will clear to leave glorius sunshine, particularly for western areas, and later the SE. N england is more tricky as its to the right of the 2ndry low.

Cheers for the positive feedback folks, the addition of posted charts really livens up the thread doesn't it? 

Speaking of which, the weak trough dropping south on day 8 of the ECM 12z op run has caught my eye:

Such a feature is also present on the JMA 12z op run for that day, and it represents the pattern trying to return to what it has been until recently - with an area of low pressure to the west of Iberia or near the Azores.

ECM has a proper go at it on this run, with a very warm (relative to average) mid-October on the cards if this verified - though it would probably involve lots of cloud, with exceptionally high minimum temperatures but not much of a lift during the day.

GEM has an extra area of low pressure racing NE days 6-9, which is out of line with the other models, yet still produces a trough near the Azores for day 10.

GFS doesn't even consider the trough dropping south next week, but it does turn up halfway through lower-res i.e. in about two weeks time, which implies a fairly strong signal somewhere for such a setup to return, with pressure rising across Europe and the UK seeing another period of well above average temperatures.

It's by no means a settled outcome of course - just a currently emerging theme in the mid-range, which may develop further, or simply subside in favour of something else... as happened with the idea of a strong high over Central Europe delivering 10-15*C upper air temperatures on 2nd October. Shame really - I was hoping for a remix of how October 2011 got underway, ideally extended in duration 

HOW DO YOU GET THESE POSTED?

Cheers James. 

I can can see another winter of awful analysis in here interspersed with your expert, unbiased and accurate analysis. Looking forward to your continued contributions. 

Weve had some superb analysts in here over the years and yourself, Gibby and Gavin are standout contributors. Also enjoy the contributions of a couple of our Kent contingent. 

Back on the laptop now so you can enjoy my daily analysis right here rather than having to cross to my website of which i hope you still will of course.

Here's today's contribution using the 00z model runs.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY OCTOBER 2ND 2014.

NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY OCTOBER 3RD 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An active cold front will edge SE across the far NW later with a strong to gale SW flow affecting the North ahead of it. A ridge of High pressure will be maintained across Southern Britain for the time being.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE All areas look like being unsettled and windy with rain at times in cool conditions. Possibly a little drier and less cool in the SE later.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST A change in the position and orientation of the Jet stream is expected soon as it transfers SE to lie in a position from Greenland or Canada, across the Atlantic and over Southern Britain through next week and probably beyond.

GFS The GFS operational this morning shows Low pressure in control of the weather across the UK over the coming couple of weeks as a deep centre drifts SE towards Western Britain and carrying troughs of Low pressure with wind and rain across all parts next week. Longer term improvements shown are slow this morning with further Low pressure and cool, rainy weather under further Low pressure coming up from the SW especially across the South before finally High pressure pushes a ridge across the UK from the East at the end of the period with a direr and brighter if cool interlude.

THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles remain supportive of it's operational through Week 1 with Low pressure close to northern Britain keeping things windy and wet at times next week with only slow improvements in Week 2 as a temporary ridge passes East ahead of further deep Low pressure across Britain to end the run in two weeks time.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a deep Low pressure area having slipped SE from the NW to lie in a position close to Western Britain with basically SW winds and spells of rain and showers dominant across the UK through the first half of next week at least.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show an active and squally cold front crossing SE over the UK over tonight, tomorrow and Saturday with squally winds and heavy rain for a time. A ridge is then shown to give a quieter interlude across the South briefly before Low pressure moves down from the NW with active troughs crossing east and SE over all areas to start next week.

GEM The GEM operational brings unsettled, often windy and wet conditions across the UK next week as Low pressure becomes deep and extensive close to or over Northern Britain with any improvements very slow as it only edges away slowly to the NE later filling slowly with further showery rain and quite cool conditions lasting all the way out to day 10.

NAVGEM NAVGEM today is little different to the other output all supportive of a deep Low close to NW Britain delivering spells of rain and showers across the UK in blustery Westerly winds through the week and probably beyond.

ECM The ECM operational maintains the basic theme of all other output in bringing a deep Low down towards and probably to the West of the UK next week with rain and wind at times for all. With the thrust of Low pressure slightly further West and lifting out North of the UK later as well as filling it does hold the chance that temperatures would be quite mild at times across the SE and holds a chance that rather less unsettled conditions could develop across the South and East with time.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is no change in the trend towards much more cyclonic based weather holding firm across the UK for all of the output term this morning though any marked improvements hinted at from some output longer term is more restricted to ECM this morning.

MY THOUGHTS Low pressure is going to become the driving force of the UK weather over an undetermined time destiny this morning. The main thrust of Low pressure will arrive early next week from the NW, this following a brief but active transitional cold front finally ending the warm and static conditions the South of the UK have seen for so long with some heavy and squally rain. Once the main thrust of Low pressure arrives early next week it will be cool and windy with spells of rain or showers for all, some heavy. Longer term we still have embryonic signs of a pressure rise from the SE again in week 2 bringing drier, brighter and relatively mild weather back into the South and East later but this is a little more tempered this morning by the chance of further Atlantic Low pressure coming back in from the West later, shown by the GFS Ensembles and more restrictive to the extreme SE from ECM. So all in all a much more seasonal feel to things is just around the corner with the wind and rain accompanied by lower temperatures culminating together to produce quite a shock to the system for many, especially those living in the South.

Some good analysis from Darren (Return) to how I miss that.

Alright, calm down 

I'm guessing your familiar enough with right-clicking on an image and selecting copy.

Then it's a matter of using the usual 'ctrl + v' keyboard shortcut to paste the image in, unless your browser supports direct access to the clipboard, in which case selecting 'Edit' at the top and choosing paste from the drop down list will do the trick.

In other news, not a lot of developments in the morning output compared to last night really - still the possibility of a trough west of Iberia in about a week's time, now explored by GFS and illustrating the potential for some very high rainfall amounts if such a system moves up across the UK:

Please be careful what one copy and paste in here its not for me to control but some of those images above have copyright on them.

I would not want TWO to get into trouble about it

Agree, it's probably best to include a link to the website with the image also

It's worth remembering this is a post moderated forum which means the posters not TWO are liable for what appears here. (see: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=rules) It becomes a potential issue  for TWO if an admin/moderator does not remove a post promptly after being notified or becoming aware of it. 

GFS/Met 12z generally very unsettled and often cool with plenty of rain on offer.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Bloody hell there must be a better way to re-size surely

So far the drag to re-size option is the best I can think of.

Regarding copyright, I've been sticking to charts displayed in the TWO format, to be on the safe(r) side.

Here you can see that ECM's developed a second area of LP within the main complex, something not seen on the GFS run but hinted at by UKMO and to a greater extent GEM. Regardless of this, it looks like a mix of showers and longer spells of rain next week, with daytime temperatures rather suppressed but nighttime temperatures holding up reasonably well.

That formation of a secondary center to the west of the original one seems to allow the LP and ridge across Europe to align better for a notable plume of warmth to affect us in 9-10 days time. It does require the jet dipping down west of Iberia though - which is not present on the GEM 12z run, resulting in flat westerlies and near average temperatures instead.

GFS shows the fairly common scenario of the plume almost reaching the UK only to be blown away NE by an area of low pressure. The run then goes on to bring two more lows down to our SW, the first tracking NE like the one before it but the last hanging back and setting up a long fetch southerly to end the run - well outside of the reliable of course, and threatening to bring further large amounts of rain not long after.

October looks like a very different month for the UK compared to September, yet it seems the large scale pattern has only shifted a little way east and could bring a sense of deja vu if it backs west at any point in the next few weeks - though this would most likely be temporary.