Lol an enormous area of low pressure in the Atlantic by JMA

Running late this morning so can only quote a link to my website for my report today.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Read daily... Thank you Martin for your web site and every thing on there to read. Cam included.

GFS has moved into line with ECM regarding this LP moving up from the south; this is the first run to show as much development of the system taking place. The impact for the UK is a very wet day as bands of precipitation drag themselves slowly northward.

ECM takes the LP system a bit further east, keeping the main precipitation away from the western half of the UK, perhaps further east too.

The stronger low also prevents the jet stream from meandering about quite as much as it could have, which means less of a ridge building into the UK from the north, and a closer Atlantic low on days 5-6:

On this run the LP aligns with a ridge over Europe to bring a notable plume of warm air up through the UK, with 20*C maximums returning to the SE for a few days:

Of course with such warm air and an increasingly unstable atmosphere as a secondary low rides up the western side of the UK, this is a recipe for some notable storm activity and very large rainfall amounts.

Not to be outdone, ECM splits the jet on day 9 and brings about a chart almost as incredible as the one from yesterday's 00z effort:

I wonder if the 12z will again revert to firing the Atlantic NE... a lot of flailing about regarding how active the Atlantic jet stream is in the 6-10 day range.

It's like the Atlantic is sitting there plotting it's next dastardly plan as the GFS 06z output roll out.

You can tell I get nervous about our weather at this time of the year, as St Jude's Storm of last year and even the Great Storm '87 are still fresh to mind, since both occurred in October. I know I should expect some rough and tumble once in a while what with having the Atlantic next door to us, but rather have not too much of it.

Those miniture model areoplanes/helicopters are out again! Which usually means the weather will get warmer Wonder if we'll be in for some flash! bang! wallops?

ECM ends tonight more unsettled & windy the further north you live with a deep area of pressure tracking to the north of Scotland.

The GFS and ECM 12z op runs are back to showing strong Atlantic storms pushing  NE then E, flattening the ridge across Europe. With a lot of warm air getting drawn across the UK, the rainfall amounts could be very high.

The swinging about continues - the question now is whether we see consistency tomorrow or another shift back towards a weaker Atlantic jet.

Shorter term, agreement is growing for the heavy rain late Sunday to track across central and eastern parts of the UK. Could be quite a soaker.

This mornings ecm ensembles showing that London could get a soaking or nothing at all.

All depends where the little low ends up tracking up from Iberia across the bay of Biscay and over the south east at the moment.