Well if the MetO seasonal model is going for a +NAO for the first half of winter at least, then I think its wise to wax those sledge runners early and stock up on supplies. 😋

What's the winter equivalent of 'barbecue'? 'Hairdryer perhaps'?

What's the winter equivalent of 'barbecue'? 'Hairdryer perhaps'?

Anyway, what an odd forecast. No mention of Northern Hemispheric snow cover. Mention of the QBO suggesting a weaker polar vortex which - like the magician pulling the proverbial rabbit out of the hat - then morphs into 'computer models are in good agreement about a +ve NAO' (my paraphrasing).

Er........OK....

The writer appears a bit confused as to whether he's writing a forecast for NDJ, which is what it's supposed to be, or DJF, which is the focus of the forcing factors discussed in the text.

If the models suggest a positive NAO for the first half of the period (i.e. up to the first fortnight in December), then fair enough. Wouldn't be a surprise, as the Polar Vortex has to get organized to some extent at some point in November. But the factors discussed at length beforehand, such as the QBO an sea ice, are DJF factors really, hence the confusion.

---

Seem to remember that last  years  end of October  METO CPF went for slightly colder than normal NDJ, before a dramatic shift  to mild in the late November CPF  forecast for DJF.  Does anyone know if there is easy access to previous years  CPF.?

I think they ran out of seaweed this time around so they contacted Ian Brown for his opinion on this coming winter.

Indeed they did Roger, I think the main problems all the long range models are having to be fair is picking up the correct signal for ENSO. Mind you it's still a pretty poor assessment overall as SE highlighted above.

OPI is the new kid on the block, the Johnny come Lately with a lot of new friends...It will be interesting to see how these contrasting forecasts fare, and whether OPI lives up to its "promises"... I'm with the Met O at the moment.

---

We all have short memories but this time last year the MetO were going for a colder than average winter, anyway I'm going with my arthritic knee ( not the one which was replaced though ) as I feel it's just as good a forecasting tool as any.

Probably a better tool than an arthritic computer model.

I may be wrong here, but I think the same MetO predicted milder than average winter for 2009/10, or at least one that was milder than the 2008/09 winter. 2009/10 turned out to be the coldest winter in the UK for about 30 years. and even though the MetO seemingly didn't that it would be colder than average, I think some independent forecasters did. I think that Brian was one of them.

---

The TWO 150 dayer gives the Midlands a white Xmas

 

Grab it while you can, probably be reading 10c tomorrow

---

The winter seasonal forecast for 2009-10, issued on September 29 last year, said that "winter temperatures are likely to be near or above average over much of Europe including the UK. Winter 2009/10 is likely to be milder than last year for the UK, but there is still a one in seven chance of a cold winter". As it turned out, we are in the middle of the coldest winter for 30 years. And then there was the famous case of the "barbecue summer".

Last April, the Met Office issued its seasonal forecast for summer 2009, and said it was "odds-on for a barbecue summer", in a tremendously resonant phrase which made big headlines everywhere, not least because it was such a terrific piece of good news after the washout summers of 2007 and 2008. Chief forecaster, Ewen McCallum, said at the press conference: "We do not see the London bus syndrome of three wet summers coming in a row. The likelihood of that happening is extremely small." That was a hostage to fortune if ever there was one: July turned out to be one of the wettest summer months on record.

http://www.independent.co.uk/extras/big-question/the-big-question-should-the-bbc-drop-the-met-office-as-its-official-weather-forecaster-1872008.html 

---

Oops....

Here is the Met Office press release regarding the 2008/9 winter...

Trend of mild winters continues

25 September 2008

The Met Office forecast for the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average. It is also likely that the coming winter will be drier than last year.

Seasonal forecasts from the Met Office are used by many agencies across government, private and civil society to help their long-term planning.

Earlier this year, John Hirst, Chief Executive of the Met Office and Michael Lake CBE, Director General of Help the Aged, signed an agreement to explore ways in which the two organisations can actively use weather information to support the health and well-being of older people.

The forecast of another mild winter across the UK has been welcomed by Help the Aged, who work with other agencies to support older people.

Dr. James Goodwin, Head of Research at Help the Aged, said: "The onset of winter causes significant anxiety among many older people. This forecast will assist policy makers to adapt their strategies to ensure that the negative effects of winter weather are reduced as far as possible."

In contrast to last year's exceptionally mild winter, this year is likely to feel somewhat colder and although the forecast of a milder winter is good news, we should still be prepared for the risk of colder spells at times.

As Dr Tish Laing-Morton, Clinical Director at the Met Office, explains: "Sudden cold snaps, especially within a generally mild winter, can be a real problem for older people and others such as those with respiratory illnesses. This is why the Met Office has developed our Healthy Outlook service which helps people suffering with COPD successfully manage their condition".


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2008/mild-winter

 

Also  - plenty of interest for the eagle eyed amongst these

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2008

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009

Met office stopped writing long range forecasts around that point didnt they? there was a string of consecutive failures, the bbq summer being a final nail in the coffin before someone in PR aptly pulled the plug.
It would appear their output/ methods have not improved much at all.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2010/probability-forecast 


... and this link shows their thinking in 2008 (just posted it in the climate forum)
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2008/adapting-to-change 

 

Of course they haven't. Long range forecasting hasn't improved to anything like a scale where it's worth even a look. Decades away if ever. 

 

 

---

Looking at the NAO specfically for this winter - The met office CPF says that a +NAO is being forecast - How certain is this? Can the NAO be forecast fairly accurately months ahead - Could it turn out to be a negative NAO?

---

No. That's not what it says. It's discussing Nov, Dec and Jan, not winter (which is Dec, Jan and Feb). It says:  ... computer models are in good agreement in suggesting a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the first half of this period ...

So the models are forecasting a positive NAO for Nov and the first fortnight of Dec. That is, just the first two weeks of winter (which is Dec, Jan, Feb).

Beyond that, for the bulk of winter, i.e. the remaining 11 weeks, it comments: Later in the period, the confidence in the forecast of the NAO reduces, with computer models having a much weaker signal and with it the risk of occasional colder outbreaks increases.

Apart from the fact that the writer doesn't understand that the verb "to reduce" is transitive, I don't see anything to quibble or worry about there.

The Met Office predicts a positive NAO for the rest of autumn, and for winter they don't know. Fair enough.

---

all this talk of NAO- we must all remember that britain can still get a mild winter even with a -NAO

and its sooooo bloody hard to type! a quick reply with an iphone

Indeed JACKO and it shows that nothing is a given in good old Blighty.

Since its related to winter and all...

Cold winters have been caused by global warming: new research

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/11191520/Cold-winters-have-been-caused-by-global-warming-say-scientists.html

So can we take it that this unusual warm spell is down to global cooling!

---

Hi All,

Has Noaa removed it's daily snow and ice details for USA/Europe/Northern Hemisphere ?

I can't seem to access the details anymore using my regular link.

Graham