^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Don't let Mr Murr hear you say that

I can see at least two plus points for this winter if you want cold and snow at this point of time.

First is the OPI. It's only at its early stages this experimental study but it's negative value at this point can only be seen as a plus. :p 

Second is that the QBO is easterly, that can only be seen as a plus.

So for me, we have effectively crossed over two hurdles before winter has officially started.

There maybe other pluses. A weak El Niño, SAI.

I have one or two concerns about the OPI. Can anyone give me a link to the research or peer review of it? 

How come the OPI has never been quoted before??

Is it just another straw to clutch , don't get me wrong everyone knows the weather I want but it seems each year something crops up for us to pin our hopes on

A recent study? More publicity this year through weather forums by the people who are studying it? It was mentioned last year but no one really paid any attention to it. 

Stratospheric warming really only caught on in 2008, now the Met Office talk about it. I have the first Stratospheric warming report from back in early 1950s.

Ok

Thanks Kevin

Here is the posting from the authors last year where they explained how they had to withdraw the downloadable research paper, as it had gone into peer review with a view to publication. Once it was surmised that the Snow Advance Index was ultimately a function of the October Pattern, the three Italian authors were joined by Prof. Judah Cohen of Snow Advance Index fame in this venture:

http://forum.meteonetwork.it/meteorologia/150683-opi-october-pattern-index.html

They left us with this extract from the first page of the paper, which explains the correlations, but not, of course, the calculations:

http://www.meteonetwork.it/cronaca-meteo/october-pattern-index-opi-un-nuovo-indice-altamente-predittivo-stagione-invernale

Google Translate isn't great for Italian, but from my understanding of the language there's nothing there which hasn't been covered in detail in English on the thread at The Other Forum.

Instead of taking this thread OT I've posted my questions about the OPI in the dedicated thread:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=13687&p=7

I remember from last winter that some cited the QBO then being in a westerly phase as being one of the factors that went against us big time as far as a cold winter was concerned. I dont know whether it normally varies from westerly to easterly from one winter to the next to be honest.

I posted it here on UKWeatherworld about 3 years ago

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/81531-a-very-early-stratospheric-warming-report/page__p__696678__hl__stratospheric__fromsearch__1#entry696678

Some nice snow in Kiruna, Sweden

http://www.webbkameror.se/webbkameror/kirunakommun/kirunakommun_1.php

Funny this... just read a post by Steve Murr about how 1978/79 unfolded via developments through December, which led to the polar vortex being displaced from the pole and then taking a long trek westward from the Pacific, through Asia, to wind up just east of the UK by December 31st 1978.

Then I decided to glance at the latest CFS 1-month run to see what it was up to these days... and guess what? 

What a coincidence... though this being CFS, the Atlantic LP then bombs out and blasts the cold away 

While it's only one run and at a range far too long to take seriously, the presence of high pressure in the Arctic is a persistent theme throughout the whole run, and given how consistent the model has been over the past month in going for a strong zonal flow this winter with a lack of blocking highs, I think this is a significant development.

I do think the model will nearly always end up overcooking the Atlantic jet and blasting the Atlantic lows on through though - which means it will take a lot to change the multi-run mean 700 mb anomalies from what they are currently:

There's still no sign of those high heights developing in the Arctic - but the strong, slow moving wave pattern and associated mid-latitude blocking is now evident in the form of those four marked areas of strong positive anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere.

Saariselka north of Rovaniemi in Finland has had a few falls already - from the traffic cam this morning:

http://liikennetilanne.liikennevirasto.fi/?cameraPanId=C1450401

Accuweather's European winter forecast. Not bad especially the prospects for the Alps

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-2014-2015-forecast-snow-cold/36777733

Agreed, there seems to be a growing consensus for Blocking to our north east.  with that in mind and based on what accuweather is going for - its clear that when storms do move in from the south they will introduce Milder or very mild air - then draw the colder air back in.  Which would be a very similar pattern to what we have felt recently.  I mentioned a few weeks back that that could be the pattern that transitions from autumn into Winter, and this forecats supports it - IMO.

That could tip the temperatures into the above average bracket (when reviewing winter as a whole - ie Lots of cold days, less very warm days - but significantly warm, which tip th average temp into the mild bracket) - whilst still giving significant snow / cold events.

Interresting.

Weirdly enough, I can't find it either. Did I dream it? 

Anyway, thanks for pointing out my error, duly corrected 

I seem to remember Accuweather's Winter 2011-12 forecast was almost spot on - they said the worst of the Winter was going to be in SE Europe and it was. 

Here's their Winter 2013-14 forecast. 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-warmer/19131940

And their forecast for 2011-12 which was more or less spot on. 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/winter-forecast-europe/56653

However they got last years wrong for the UK

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2012-2013/961001

interesting

More confidence towards LPs driving through the med, which is what we want.  Says to me a Neg NAO.  looks like France and germany could be in for a pasting late on.

It seems they got the 2012/13 forecast fairly right imo....  the winter was cold overall, especially through mid-late January, although nothing exceptional.    Your statement about it being "last years..." implies you were reading for forecast as 2013/14.  If they had issued that forecast for 2013/14, it would indeed have been wrong!

I'm determined not to get sucked into the excitement, as some very knowledgeable amateur meteorologists point out some decent potential.

But it's so difficult!!

Anyway, I just hope we don't get a shot of cold set-ups that are blown away before Xmas. Throughout the Nov/Dec 2010 col spell I was on pins in case the breakdown came before the Xmas break.

Dec 2009 was good - a gradual cooling down from early-mid December, with PPN getting increasingly wintry.