I think it has been down since October 20th. Joe Bas tardi mentioned this in his winter forecast for North America.

Duh-Huh??? if the planet has warmed by more than the naturals alone then that impacts all weather types surely? Can you explain why a warmer world only impacts some of the weathers?

Quick!! Medic!!! The Climate Forum contagion is spreading!!!! Somebody do something!!!!!!

Oh dear

Me thinks he was kidding ...just a bit

I stay out of there otherwise my blood pressure would rise 

The OPI has correlation of 0.9 with the AO -but how well does the AO relate to Winter CET?

The AO data covers the  the period from 1950 to 2014 a total of 64 winters(DJF).Of these 64 winters 24 (37%)) had a +ve  sign, 40 (63% )  having an AO - sign.The mean of winter CET's from 1950/51 to 2013/14 was 4.3C.

The correlation between the values of the AO and CET for the whole 64 winters is 0.66.For the smaller sample size of the AO + and AO - correlations are lower  figures are AO + ,0.46, AO-,0.48.

If we look at the the below mean/above mean winter  CET's and how they relate to AO- and AO + winters we find;

Of the 40 AO - winters 65% had below average CET's,35% above average CET's.

Of the 24 AO + winters 83% had above average CET's, 17% below average CETs.

Finally a brief look at the stronger AO signal winters >1 and <-1 we find the following years.

AO + winters >1  72/73 CET 4.9,88/89 CET 6.5,89/90 CET 6.2,91/92 CET 4.6,92/93 CET 4.7,99/00 CET 5.4,06/07 6.4. The seven years all have above average CET.

AO - winter <-1 52/53 CET 3.5,55/56 CET 2.9,59/60 CET 4.6,62/63 CET -0.3,64/65 CET 3.3,65/66 CET 4.4,68/69 CET3.2,69/70 CET 3.3,76/77 CET 3.3, 77/78 CET 4.1,78/79 CET 1.6,84/85 CET 2.7,85/86 CET 2.9,95/96 CET 3,00/01 CET 4.5,09/10 CET 2.4,12/13 3.8. The CET in these 17  AO years was below average on 88% of occasions.

Maybe the OPI method will prove a better predicter of the AO than predictions of the NAO.It would be interesting if METO were to release figures showing  how successful their forecasts of winter NAO have been. Be it NAO or AO forecasts  the link with CET is still not very precise with the majority of years having but a weak link. 

The last seasonal forecast I can clearly remember the MetO issuing was the one for winter 2009/10 which they predicted to be a milder one than 2008/09 turned out to be. From what I recall though, a number of independent forecasters at the same time went for a colder than average winter. In the end, it turned out to be the coldest one in this country for about 30 years.

The Month Ahead:

A bit of uncertainty and contradiction come the end but I guess this means High pressure - warm during the day and maybe foggy and frosty at night!?

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&FILE=tma&DAY=20141028

I am not sure what you mean by 'programmed to include the warming.......' Weather forecast models start from the current state of the atmosphere and integrate forward in time for days to weeks to months. Long term climate change has no role.

Can we stay on topic please. If not please leave this forum and go and discuss whatever you like elsewhere before you're banned! 

Daily Telegraph 6 Feb 2009:

Dave Britton, a meteorologist at the Met Office in Exeter, said that the signals for a mild winter all changed as the season progressed. "There was always a 25 per cent chance that this winter would turn out colder than average but, yes, we got it wrong. Every seasonal forecast is reviewed at the end of the period, this one will be no exception."

The forecast is put together using observations of sea temperatures in the preceding summer, data from the Met Office's northern hemisphere weather modelling systems, those of the French national weather service and that of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting in Reading. That is then assessed alongside predictions about the North Atlantic Oscillation – a measurement of pressure patterns and seasonal variations in the jet stream across the Atlantic. The Met Office then raises the temperature prediction for the winter by including the long-term warming signal caused by climate change.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/4534358/Snow-Britain-Further-snow-and-ice-forecast-for-rest-of-the-winter.html

That suggests Tom is right and the computer model is not programmed to include warming. Please take this discussion elsewhere now. 

"A Significant snow event to occur for a few days mid month!?" - According to the Weather online:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=206&FILE=sea&DAY=20141029

BUT as always - to be taken as a foot of salt! - I agree about the drier & colder weather end of Nov/Beginning Dec! Time will tell. January is not even worth looking into - it's too vague!

Seasonal outlook - October 29, 2014

Cooler December

Unsettled January



*December*
Note low confidence levels in our long range forecast for December and January.
Current indications for December are that the month may start chilly with high pressure to the east, and a southeast flow affecting many areas.
This will bring dry weather to Scotland and much of northern and eastern England, but more unsettled to the west.
There is the possibility of a breakdown into more unsettled conditions through the middle and later stages of the month, this thanks to the westerly winds breaking through for a time as the high pressure retreats. It is possible that a significant snow event may occur for a few days mid month as the milder Atlantic air, battles with the cooler continental air.
By the end of the month, several models indicate a trough established to the west, high pressure to the east and a southerly flow as a result. This brings mostly mild conditions, drier weather in the east, although a wetter west. Note that at times there could be some incursions of colder weather from the east.

*January*
A more unsettled month is indicated for January. The break through of strong westerly winds bringing heavy rain and strong winds, and there is and a risk of gales, particularly so in the north and west.
However, it may be that the jet stream does push further south for a while mid month, allowing high pressure to build through the UK, and introduce a much drier and cooler spell, and perhaps bringing the threat of some snow, especially to northern England and Scotland.

It was mild last year too...

Mild autumns are no guarantee of winter cold.  Its too easy to focus on the exceptions and to forget the run of the mill.  IMHO mild autumns more often than not lead to mild winters, by the standards of our maritime climate.

no, there was some frost about during the autumn..

Quote from Matt Hugo below from Twitter. Really rate this guy so very good news indeed for coldies.

Almost a text book Cohen Nov setup - wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.… - Call it a fcst but I have high hopes for early-mid Dec onwards.

   Averages\Extremes for the month of October 2013
 
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Average temperature     = 10.9°C; diff from climate av: +1.1°C
 Average humidity        = 90%
 Average dewpoint        = 9.3°C
 Average barometer       = 1007.8 mb
 Average windspeed       = 10.3 mph
 Average gustspeed       = 14.7 mph
 Average direction       = 221° ( SW)
 Rainfall for month      = 100.6 mm
 Rainfall for year       = 556.4 mm
 Maximum rain per minute = 0.8 mm on day 19 at time 19:33
 Maximum temperature     = 19.0°C on day 04 at time 14:47
 Minimum temperature     = 2.4°C on day 18 at time 03:00
 Maximum dewpoint        = 16.8°C on day 04 at time 14:08
 Minimum dewpoint        = 1.7°C on day 09 at time 16:13
 Maximum pressure        = 1027.9 mb on day 11 at time 19:35
 Minimum pressure        = 978.3 mb on day 28 at time 06:40
 Maximum windspeed       = 31.1 mph from 225°( SW) on day 25 at time 21:54
 Maximum gust speed      = 51.8 mph from 338°(NNW) on day 10 at time 18:41
 Maximum heat index      = 19.0°C on day 04 at time 14:47
 Avg daily max temp :13.5°C
 Avg daily min temp :8.3°C

   Averages\Extremes for the month of October 2014
 
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Average temperature     = 10.5°C; diff from climate av: +0.6°C
 Average humidity        = 89%
 Average dewpoint        = 8.6°C
 Average barometer       = 1008.4 mb
 Average windspeed       = 9.2 mph
 Average gustspeed       = 13.0 mph
 Average direction       = 230° ( SW)
 Rainfall for month      = 85.0 mm
 Rainfall for year       = 746.0 mm
 Maximum rain per minute = 0.6 mm on day 28 at time 17:48
 Maximum temperature     = 18.2°C on day 03 at time 16:11
 Minimum temperature     = 0.4°C on day 02 at time 07:48
 Maximum dewpoint        = 14.7°C on day 18 at time 12:07
 Minimum dewpoint        = -0.3°C on day 02 at time 7:48
 Maximum pressure        = 1030.3 mb on day 02 at time 07:52
 Minimum pressure        = 987.6 mb on day 08 at time 19:37
 Maximum windspeed       = 32.2 mph from 315°( NW) on day 21 at time 15:45
 Maximum gust speed      = 51.8 mph from 315°( NW) on day 21 at time 17:15
 Maximum heat index      = 18.2°C on day 03 at time 16:11
 Avg daily max temp :13.7°C
 Avg daily min temp :7.1°C