We're at it again as autumn rolls on 

For the UK for 1st-30th October 2014 and going by the official Met Office station reports what/when will be:

- The latest 20.0*C              - The first night falling to or below -2.5*C

- The longest run of days with a minimum temperature of 0*C or below somewhere in the UK?

- The highest UK temperature?              - The lowest UK temperature?

- The rainfall as a percentage of the long term average?              - The sunshine as a percentage of the LTA?

It's turning out to be a very quiet autumn so far and looks like staying that way for some time yet - a gradual turning of the leaves, hopefully into a wealth of colours under sunny skies 

Latest 20c. The  20th.            First night below -2.5c  29th.

 Longest run of minimum or below     5days.

Highest  UK  temperature     28c.       Lowest  UK temperature   - 4.5c..

Rainfall   %  of  LTA    89%      Sunshine   %  of  LTA   79%.

Whoops, been out all day and this thread slipped onto page two!

At least it avoided page 3 and kept some dignity 

Thanks for the predictions ARTzeman, here's hoping they get some company soon! 

- The latest 20.0*C  21st            - The first night falling to or below -2.5*C 25th

- The longest run of days with a minimum temperature of 0*C or below somewhere in the UK? 4

- The highest UK temperature?  22.2            - The lowest UK temperature? -3.3

- The rainfall as a percentage of the long term average? 128             - The sunshine as a percentage of the LTA? 104

• The latest 20.0*C   16th            The first night falling to or below -2.5*C  6th


• The longest run of days with a minimum temperature of 0*C or below somewhere in the UK 2


• The highest UK temperature 23.7c         The lowest UK temperature  -4.7c


• The rainfall as a percentage of the long term average?   110%            The sunshine as a percentage of the LTA?  75%

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gary

Sorry I'm a little late. 

• The latest 20.0*C = 26th            


• The first night falling to or below -2.5*C = 19th


• The longest run of days with a minimum temperature of 0*C or below somewhere in the UK = 2


• The highest UK temperature = 25.3c        


• The lowest UK temperature = -4.0c


• The rainfall as a percentage of the long term average? = 92%            


• The sunshine as a percentage of the LTA? = 102%

Arghhh!  I forgot to do this before I went on holiday.  I'm back now!   Penalties!!! 

• The latest 20.0*C  25th


• The first night falling to or below -2.5*C  8th


• The longest run of days with a minimum temperature of 0*C or below somewhere in the UK?  5


• The highest UK temperature?    22.5c


• The lowest UK temperature?  -5.2c


• The rainfall as a percentage of the long term average?   90%


• The sunshine as a percentage of the LTA?  110%

Glad to have you back Caz, hope you had a fine holiday 

It's quite cold tonight and I wouldn't be surprised if there are some minus temps recorded in places.  We're also coming up to a full moon, which I always think brings lower temps at night, though I don't know why.  Maybe it's just that we only notice the moon on clear nights when there's no cloud cover to keep us insulated.

Off to sunnier climes tomorrow and I'll probably need my thermals when I get back. 

Ever wondered what the chart looks like after just one category?

Yeah. Not very interesting 

Schmee and Domma were both closest with the first -2.5*C, having both gone for 6th October so just one day out, well done to both 

Rob and Caz both saw an early occurrance coming too, going for 6th and 8th respectively so both just two days out - nice one 

The rest of us went for mid-month or later... in my case much later 

No thankfully

Cheers SC

Here I am, back again.  I'm told it did nothing but rain whilst I was away and judging by the forecast, there's more to come.  So much for my prediction of lower than average rainfall and above average sunshine!  

I've added a few provisional category results for your viewing pleasure 

Assuming that during the rest of the month we don't see a day warmer than 21.7*C, or a night colder than -3.7*C, or a run of more than 5 days hitting 0*C or below somewhere in the UK, this is how things stand.

Schmee's having a fine month, with a 4 point lead over Rob and I, behind which looms Caz just one point down the line. Shame about the penalty impact, but I'm sure the holiday was more than worth it 

Cheers SC.  

Yes the holiday was worth it and I'm not too shamed by my current position, though I think I'll be dropping a few places with my sunshine and rainfall guesses!

Cheers SC

The final stats are in and the October table has been updated (see a few posts back).

What we see is the second podium finish running for Gooner, this time taking the top spot, congratulations on another fine effort 

Rob has also been on the podium a few times this year, this time being the third - nicely done mate 

It was a strong performance overall this October, with the average final score of 31 being the second lowest of the year so far behind that of April (30).

The predictions for the lowest temperature were remarkably close overall, with the average error a mere 0.69*C.

For the highest temperature the average error was 1.41*C, which is still better than seen in most months.

Everybody underestimated the rainfall, out by an average of 43%... never mind, better luck next time eh? 

The average error for sunshine was 12.75% which is fairly typical for that category.

As can plainly be seen, I'm becoming a bit of a stats nutcase these days 

Thanks to all participants as always, the level of interest has been great this year 

Here's the annual league situation, featuring a slight change in the full attendance league (top five) as Gooner swaps places with Caz after the win this month.

I have also amended an error in which I missed out one of Schmee's scores in the previous update, which means only one month has been missed, same as Domma. An estimated score for the dropped month has been calculated - simply a mean of the member's scores for all other months.

The same process allows ozone_aurora and vince places on the table despite missing two and three months respectively. It does appear, though, that consistent participation tends to result in better scores 

Many thanks SC. 

I can't see the October table either but I can see the annual chart and I'm happy to swap places with Gooner as he's doing so well. 

Most puzzling... I can see it fine and the location online hasn't changed.

Google Drive is undergoing some upgrades at the moment though, which might explain it.

Cheers SC

I cant see it either